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While you’re worrying about what happens if AI takes all the jobs and dominates humanity, here’s another possibility to consider. What happens if it doesn’t? Or what happens if it does, but the rise to dominance (or at least profitability) takes longer than expected? We’ve pushed all our computer chips onto the table. Economically, we’re all in. In fact, unlike a poker game where being all in means betting all the money you have left, we did that, and then kept borrowing more and more chips. It’s arguable that we’ve never been this pot committed on any economic bet in history. What if it all goes to pot? Annie Lowrey in The Atlantic (Gift Article): The AI Bubble Is No Ordinary Bubble. “The American stock market is booming, thanks to artificial intelligence. Tech giants are borrowing billions to acquire AI talent, purchase chips and hardware, and construct data centers. And market watchers are starting to get worried. They see financiers bulldozing giant piles of money to private AI start-ups with no realistic path to profitability, tech companies reliant on other tech companies for revenue growth, and non-tech businesses without a lot to show for their AI investments. The value of AI-linked firms has climbed $27 trillion in the past three years—an astonishing amount, equivalent to 36 percent of the value of the entire U.S. stock market today. Although future earnings could justify those valuations, as Dominic Wilson and Vickie Chang of Goldman Sachs argued in a note to clients, the profit expectations require Panglossian optimism.” (That term, referring to excessive optimism, comes from Dr. Pangloss, a character in Voltaire’s Candide, who repeatedly suggests, “all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.” If Voltaire knew that one day I could get that summary from AI instead of having to read the book, he may have never created the character. And I’m guessing if Dr. Pangloss were brought to life in 2026, he’d last through about 30 seconds of a Trump press conference before scratching his head and saying, “Whoa, actually, things look pretty grim.)
+ Because of the money, land, power, water, and technology required, coupled with the spending power of those who have enjoyed market gains, the AI boom/bubble is touching nearly every part of our economy, from the stock market to Main Street. NYT (Gift Article): Stocks and the Economy Are Increasingly Relying on the A.I. Boom. The “spending and investment have helped carry the U.S. economy through a tumultuous period of inflation, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty. But it also creates a vulnerability: If investor confidence in A.I. falters, the economic activity built atop it could come crashing down. Bank of America’s monthly global fund-manager survey for July reported a bursting of the A.I. bubble as the key risk to financial markets. It’s also now the key risk to the economy.”
+ White House to Redirect Billions in Research Funds Toward AI, Away From Colleges.
+ Meanwhile, OpenAI Says Its A.I. Models Went Rogue and Attacked a Digital Library. (Phew, I was worried it might have attacked my portfolio...)
2
Social Order
“France banned children under 15 from using social media on Tuesday, becoming the first country in the European Union to pass a blanket ban on the platforms as concerns grow worldwide over the harmful effects of digital content on kids.” The timing of these bans is interesting, given that we are moving quickly from the social media age to the AI chatbot age (with many of the same big tech companies in charge). A few years from now, people might be nostalgic for the times when their kids were addicted to social media.
3
Someone Call 9/11
At the very moment we’re fighting a war to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East, Trump is doing a nuclear deal in the region. “A key provision of the new accord would have U.S. companies build a uranium-enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint U.S.-Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted. That stipulation would give the U.S. influence over the Saudi nuclear program and, Trump administration officials argue, a way to prevent it from being misused for military purposes. Yet the deal, which is expected to be submitted to Congress for review in the coming days, is certain to prove controversial among many lawmakers who oppose the spread of nuclear technology in the volatile Middle East.” WSJ (Gift Article): Trump Approves Landmark Nuclear Deal With Saudi Arabia in Big Win for Kingdom.
4
Exhaust in Translation
“Monday was Sea Day in Japan, a public holiday when many people escape the summer heat by swimming, surfing and lounging at the beach. But not Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Ms. Takaichi spent the holiday weekend rereading policy documents and dealing with a backlog of thousands of emails, according to a social media post on Tuesday. She wrote that she eked out a ‘full five hours of sleep for the first time in ages’ — better than the ‘zero to three hours’ she said she is accustomed to. And she said she spent her limited free time ironing undergarments, sewing fraying skirts and reinforcing loose jacket buttons.” Japan Is Startled by Prime Minister’s Grueling Sleep Schedule. “With her comments, Ms. Takaichi seemed eager to present herself as a down-to-earth leader who doesn’t stop working on behalf of Japan’s citizens. Instead, her post, which has been viewed more than 31 million times, has set off a national debate about work-life balance and the hazards of sleep deprivation.” (For Americans, this makes even less sense. Why doesn’t she just sleep during meetings, press conferences, and sporting events? Everyone knows that people who don’t sleep that much are woke...)
5
Extra, Extra
Triple Threat: “Donald Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin are drastically different men, but they do have one important thing in common: Each thinks he is the smartest person in any room he enters. Alas, though, because they have all done the dumbest thing you can do as a leader — surround yourself with sycophants — they have all blundered into dead-end wars from which they can extricate themselves today only by eating a banquet of crow. Watch out. There is nothing more dangerous than a reckless leader faced with a plate of crow: Sometimes his instinct is to double down on a losing strategy instead.” Thomas Friedman: Three World Leaders. Three Incredibly Bad Decisions. Those bad decisions often escalate to targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure, something Trump just threatened. “President Trump escalated his rhetoric against Iran on Wednesday, threatening to destroy a bridge or power plant in the country if its forces continued to target ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The threat on Truth Social, which Trump said could extend to targets in or near Tehran, echoed others he has made in recent days. Such attacks could be considered a war crime under international law.” Meanwhile, “at least six vessels reversed course in the Red Sea on Monday and Tuesday after the Iran-backed Houthi militia warned shipping companies to avoid Saudi Arabia’s ports.” Here’s the latest from the NYT.
+ Dipsticks and Stones: “The closing of the chokepoints at Hormuz, Bab al-Mandeb and the Black Sea collectively imperils roughly a quarter of the world’s oil supply.” Global Economy Is Suddenly Fighting an Energy Stranglehold on Three Fronts.
+ New, New York State of Mind: Mamdani Calls Netanyahu a ‘War Criminal’ and Calls on U.S. to Arrest Him. (The mayor of America’s most Jewish city calling for the arrest of an Israeli prime minister. A few years ago, this would have qualified as an Onion headline.)
+ MaHachoo: U.S. measles cases hit 35-year record with months left in 2026. (Congrats, everyone!)
+ Trump and the Abstinence Administration: “A few weeks ago, Rena Dixon, the head of Fact Forward, a South Carolina nonprofit that offers adolescent health and sex education classes, got a letter from the Trump administration with crushing news. The government was terminating the organization’s $1.6 million grant from a federal program to reduce teen pregnancies, effective immediately. The administration’s priorities, it said, do not align with ‘content that encourages, normalizes or promotes sexual activity for minors.’”