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| The Daily Pitch |
| PE, VC and M&A |
| Your edge on global private capital markets |
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⚽ See the sponsors–and their investors–that make the World Cup possible. From Adidas to Aramco, the backers in our new visualization reveal how soccer's biggest event is funded. Check the data
• Sign up for The Credit Pitch for weekly news and analysis of the US leveraged loan and private credit markets. |
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| OpenAI is waiting for a trillion—here's what it signals |
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By Harrison Rolfes, Senior Research Analyst
OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its $1 trillion IPO to 2027—and that deliberation is a price signal that its leadership doubts it can clear the target today.
This would make it the first indication by the company that it's lagging behind its main rival, Anthropic—and a confirmation of PitchBook's initial analysis of the two companies.
OpenAI has been priced too richly for its quality: $188 billion per point of business quality, giving it a 60% premium over Anthropic's $118 billion, according to our AI Business Quality framework. |
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Now, whether OpenAI's targeted $1 trillion valuation is achievable within 12-18 months depends on the multiple applied. At OpenAI's own rich multiple of 34x—based on its most recent valuation—it would only need about $29 billion of annual revenue to achieve that, which is feasible.
But using the multiple of 20.5x from Anthropic's own most recent valuation, OpenAI would need about $49 billion in annual revenue, or nearly double its current level.
So the math would only be in OpenAI's favor if investors continue to give it credit for its premium multiple. Measured like Anthropic, it's a long way off.
Waiting would also come at a cost. Based on OpenAI's own projections, cumulative cash burn runs to a total of roughly $115 billion through 2029.
This is the amount of capital it would need before its business is fully self-sustaining around 2030. Pushing off an IPO means more of that bill is relegated to the private markets, which have valued the company at a price OpenAI is ostensibly now questioning.
About $340B of OpenAI's $852B valuation derives from the higher multiple, which itself is an accounting quirk from the two companies' different revenue calculations.
Put both on the same basis and most of the spread dissolves, leaving Anthropic with the higher quality business, according to the AIBQ framework. The proof will be in the public S-1 pudding. |
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| Support growth and improve margins in private equity |
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Private equity firms and portfolio company leaders continue to navigate a challenging operating environment. While economic indicators show mixed performance, expectations for growth, profitability, and value creation remain high.
Explore performance improvement strategies to address margin pressure, optimize operations, and support profitable portfolio growth at the Crowe ExPErtise Series webinar on July 28. Attendees can earn 1.0 hour of CPE credit.
Register now. |
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• The private credit market is eager for liquidity as PE exits plunge. An increasing number of borrower sales are related to strategic buyers, Morningstar DBRS data shows. Read more
• The backlog of retail investors' private credit redemptions will take at least 2-3 years to clear. Veteran private markets investor Mark Goldberg explains why manager messaging has understated the timeline and what he believes sponsors need to do about it. Read the Q&A
• European M&A held up far better than North America in Q2, with deal count rising by a modest 0.9% even as the European Central Bank boosted interest rates. See why |
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| Khosla family's record $9.6B Seahawks deal caps private capital rush into NFL |
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By Michael Bodley and Jordan Rubio, PitchBook News
Both private equity firms and deep-pocketed individuals continue to snap up stakes in professional sports teams—with the most recent being Vinod Khosla's family purchasing the Seattle Seahawks for a record $9.6 billion.
The valuations of teams have skyrocketed as the NFL and other US pro sports leagues have made it easier to take in outside capital. |
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Since the NFL finally allowed private equity to acquire minority stakes in 2024, there are now six PE-backed NFL franchises, according to PitchBook’s Private Equity Sports Investment dashboard. Still, NFL rules block investment firms from becoming majority team owners, confining them to passive minority stakes.
Another five teams have ties to private capital through their owners, who have made their fortunes in venture capital and private equity. The previous valuation record for an NFL team was set in 2023, when a group led by Apollo Global Management co-founder Josh Harris bought the Washington Commanders for $6.05 billion.
In the first instances, Arctos Partners in December 2024 bought a 10% stake in the Buffalo Bills, and Ares Management became a 10% owner of the Miami Dolphins that same month.
Overall, 75 US pro sports teams valued at a cumulative $283.1 billion have taken private market money. There were seven such deals last year, according to PitchBook data, up from two in 2024 and eclipsing 2023’s tally of four. |
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• "For 50 years, your property values have not kept up with the rest of the country. And oh, how the pendulum has swung," a land broker told 200 Pennsylvania families set to split $1.3 billion from data-center developers, months after 96 neighbors banked $586 million doing the same. [The Wall Street Journal]
• Dubai is done dealing with the Strait of Hormuz. DP World plans to build a port on the UAE's east coast, sidestepping the strait, where daily ship traffic has collapsed from 135 to under 40. [Financial Times]
• "It's not really, like, fraud." Consumers filed 158 million card disputes in 2025, up 29% since 2021. Plenty aren't victims of real fraud, but are using the claims to get back at retailers. [Bloomberg] |
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