Welcome back. This week I swapped the bubble for the posh Spanish coast in Santander, a staple holiday spot for the aristocracy and the bourgeoisie for over a century and counting.  The social codes of a specific upper-class milieu— clinging to generational wealth while the world spins out of their comfort zone — are fascinating to watch. It's an idea of Europe that simply refuses to die.

While I must confess that I enjoyed playing tourist, I was in Santander to work. 

On Thursday, I moderated a panel organised by the Bank of Spain. 

It was a full circle moment for me – and while I'm not a sentimental woman, it felt special. Ten years ago, I attended the same conference in my first serious gig as economics correspondent. Back then, my assignment consisted of chasing the Governor of the Bank of Spain everywhere in the hope of landing an exclusive. This time around, I wore a "professor" badge and hosted in the main hall. Much has changed since, except for the fact that I still like exclusives.

And as professor for the day, I got to stay in the Magdalena Palace, the summer residence to King Alfonso XIII and his wife Victoria Eugenie (née Battenberg) before they were forced into exile in 1931. As the king fled Spain, the Second Republic was born, but it wouldn't last long: a military uprising, coupled with enormous polarisation, fuelled a bloody civil war that many would come to see as a prelude to the Second World War. 

Sleeping in the royal palace is quite an experience, mostly because it reveals the intricacies of a world in which the upstairs and the downstairs, the master and the servant, never interact. And for all the royal talk around illicit affairs, let me tell you one thing: sneaking into bedrooms isn't easy, as the wood floors creak in a way that would make even the most daring lover think twice.

In Santander, much of the conference focused on debriefing Sintra, the annual central banking conference organised by the European Central Bank in Portugal. The gathering is worth following as central bankers usually give hints about the direction of monetary policy and provide a snapshot of where things are going with the global economy. This year, all eyes were on the new Trump-appointed chair of the US Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, who made his international debut.

From what I gather talking to Europeans who were in Sintra, the new Fed boss made a good impression, and it wasn't a given going into the conference.

International finance had agonised for weeks (and in the months prior to his nomination) over whether Warsh would maintain his institution's independence, or pander to Trump's banana republic central bank approach in which interest rates must be kept low and cheap credit must flow so Americans can continue to max out credit cards without worrying about affordability (a term the US President has defined a "hoax"). Instead, Warsh indicated that he takes inflation seriously, and doubled down on the bank's duty to deliver price stability at 2%.

His message resonated with policymakers, who had been concerned about a Fed that would go rogue. If you look back at central banks since the Lehman crash in 2008 onwards, they have worked together and coordinated a response each time a major crisis hit the global economy. A Fed chair willing to engage - and not break from- partners gave the Europeans some relief in their tumultuous relationship with the Trump administration. 

In Santander, I also caught up with the San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, fresh off the plane from Sintra, who told me there was a sense of unity at the conference and a common understanding around the biggest challenges, namely geopolitical uncertainty and the unpredictable implications of AI. 

Warsh himself referred to AI as a revolution and pointed to a technology that could bring "the biggest time of consequence" of our lives. Daly, who is at the epicentre of it all in San Francisco, told me quite candidly that no one can forecast what AI will do, what impact it will have on inflation, productivity, and whether it will meet expectations for a new gilded age driven by technology. One thing is for sure, the appetite for it seems to be insatiable.

Also making headlines in Sintra, Christine Lagarde herself. 

The head of the European Central Bank plays hostess with the mostest to perfection, but the question in the central banking world seems to be for how long. For months, speculation has been rampant about an early exit from her top job at the ECB ahead of the French presidential election next year. 

When it comes to central banks, every word matters. An interview with the French daily Les Echos this week sent rumours wild again after she did not deny the possibility of an early exit, coinciding with the French election campaign. She did not indicate in what capacity she would participate in the debate, but stressed that a European voice must be heard in France.

Her comments are relevant because as it stands, the French vote may well end up pitting two candidates from the extremes against each other: on the right, Jordan Bardella as a likely successor to Marine Le Pen if she is fully banned from running (July 7 is the day to watch), and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leading the far-left camp. That scenario is the stuff of nightmares for Brussels.

Beyond Paris, Lagarde's future also matters within the EU institutions.

The former IMF chief landed at the helm of the ECB in a package deal with Ursula von der Leyen taking the European Commission in 2019. The agreement ensured that Paris and Berlin took home top jobs – one holding the key to the EU executive, the other to the central bank's firepower – on equal footing.

An early exit by Lagarde – who should, at least on paper, stay until October 2027 – could upend that balance of power just as President Emmanuel Macron vacates the Élysée. Much has been debated about the future of an ambitious president who would be just 49 years old by the time he leaves office.

Macron has hinted at life after politics without politics, but few in European circles believe this will be the last of a president who spearheaded a vision for an autonomous Europe, now largely vindicated by the signs of the times.

If the package is no more with Lagarde's early exit, will that impact the rest? For von der Leyen, who keeps amassing power, it's an uncomfortable narrative, to say the least. Her second term as Commission chief ends in 2029.

Whichever way it goes, Brussels is holding its breath over this feuilleton – with serious consequences for the EU because la France, c'est la France. This isn't a vote like any other; it is consequential for the future of the Union.

That's all from me as we prepare for the NATO Summit in Ankara, with President Donald Trump still fuming at European allies over the Strait of Hormuz debacle. In the meantime, my colleague Shona Murray managed to get her hands on a draft declaration that NATO allies are expected to endorse by the end of the summit, reaffirming the alliance's ironclad commitment to common defence. 

We will be running special coverage from Ankara on Euronews from Monday.

We hope you will join us.

As always, if you have any comments, email me at maria.tadeo@euronews.com.

— Maria Tadeo