Good morning. Andrew here, wishing you a happy early Fourth of July — and, more important, a happy 250th birthday to the U.S. Yesterday, I spoke with Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president, who was en route to Medora, N.D., to speak today alongside the prominent historian Doris Kearns Goodwin at the grand opening of the new Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library. Smith has been reflecting on the country’s trajectory as part of a passion project analyzing American history through the lens of innovation. (You can watch the first video in the project here). He reminded me that progress is always messy and that we shouldn’t fall for the illusion of inevitability. While it’s easy to look back and think that things had to turn out the way they did, they weren’t preordained. Human agency matters: History is made through hard choices by people in specific moments. That’s worth remembering. We’ll be off for the next two days and back in your inbox on Monday. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)
A tough callThe S&P 500 is a tick below record territory. Oil prices are at a four-month low, and economic growth is holding up. But investors are still bracing for today’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern. An unexpectedly perky job market has delighted the White House — but it has also put the Fed and its chairman, Kevin Warsh, in a bind. A hotter-than-expected report today could further pressure the central bank to raise interest rates, perhaps as soon as this month, which could anger President Trump. What to watch for:
There’s little consensus about today’s report. Some see the hiring number coming in as high as 140,000 new jobs — partly due to a World Cup effect — while economists at Citi expect just 25,000 new jobs. The futures market today foresees one to two rate increases this year, starting in September. But “a strong report would likely move markets closer to our call for three hikes in 2026,” Shruti Mishra, an economist at Bank of America, wrote to investors this week. Where does the Fed stand? At the European Central Bank’s annual conference yesterday in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh was tight-lipped on rates. But he offered two insights about inflation that have left investors guessing:
The White House has a glass-half-full view. It would be “a macroeconomic mistake to raise rates” as the economy is in the midst of a productivity boom, Kevin Hassett, a top economic adviser to the president, said on Fox News yesterday.
Apple is said to be shopping for chips from blacklisted Chinese producers. It is in early negotiations with ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies, two suppliers on the Pentagon’s restricted list, Bloomberg reports. Tim Cook, Apple’s departing C.E.O., has reached out to Trump administration officials to mitigate any political fallout, Bloomberg adds. The S.E.C. is reportedly investigating trades connected to Susquehanna International Group. In a court filing this week, Susquehanna, the giant financial firm, said it had lost more than $70 million on a trade that involved unknown parties’ making big bets on Chinese securities firms that were subsequently targeted by Beijing. The S.E.C.’s involvement, Bloomberg reports, suggests the suspicious trading has also caught the administration’s eye. Google suffers two antitrust blows in Europe. The European Court of Justice upheld a 4.1 billion euro fine ($4.7 billion) on the search giant today. Yesterday, a Swedish court ordered Google to pay Klarna, the fintech company, close to $2 billion in damages. The European authorities are increasingly scrutinizing U.S. tech giants on competition grounds, angering the White House. SpaceX is said to be developing a handset powered by artificial intelligence. A prototype of the device, which would be slimmer than an iPhone, was shown off to some investors before the I.P.O. last month for SpaceX, the rocket and A.I. company, according to The Wall Street Journal. A.I. companies, including OpenAI, have been weighing the creation of hardware to change how people interact with their models.
The costs of Meta’s potential A.I. shiftLike other hyperscalers, Meta has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to building out massive data centers and other artificial intelligence infrastructure. But its shares popped 9 percent yesterday on a report that it was weighing whether to rent out its excess computing power or to host A.I. models that customers pay for access to. It’s a sign that even the wealthiest tech giants are rethinking their businesses in the A.I. race. Can Meta become a provider of cloud infrastructure? Right now, the company makes most of its money by selling ads on its social media platforms, like Instagram. The changes it’s considering, according to Bloomberg, suggest it’s eyeing more enterprise-focused businesses, too.
Both moves carry risks and complications.
Meta would also have to recruit sales representatives and make a back end to support these offerings. The bigger picture: Meta has been aggressive in committing money to create A.I. infrastructure. But unlike the aims of Amazon or Google, its current end goal for spending so much on A.I. — better optimization for its ad business — may no longer justify its huge spending plans.
Ponying up for Freedom 250Micron, the chip maker whose stock has soared this year, is the latest corporate giant to throw its money behind Trump accounts. The program starts July 4 and is designed to provide saving accounts for children in the U.S. Micron chose the figure — a $250 million investment — to honor America’s semiquincentennial anniversary. It’s the largest corporate gift to the program so far and followed pledges for matching funds by companies including Bank of America, BlackRock, Coinbase and Nvidia. America’s milestone has inspired a slew of corporate donations. One of the biggest beneficiaries has been Freedom 250, the Trump administration organization planning many celebrations. Critics have accused Freedom 250 of partisan bias. But that hasn’t deterred corporations. The size of the donations are private, but those giving $1 million or more were reportedly offered invitations to a “private Freedom 250 thank you reception.” Sponsors include:
Many of the donors have given to multiple Trump projects, including Chevron, Mastercard and Palantir, according to a recent report by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.
Tight security for Swift and Kelce“The world’s most famous arena” is gearing up for the world’s most-watched wedding this weekend: that of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, who are hosting their friends and family at Madison Square Garden. Expect a tight security cordon around the Garden, including hundreds of police officers. The nuptials are casting a spotlight on the extraordinary, and increasingly expensive, ways the wealthy and famous protect their gatherings. What we know about the Swift events: The couple has invited about 100 people to the Infosys Theater inside the Garden today and as many as 1,000 guests tomorrow to cocktails, a wedding and a reception in the arena, according to The Times. A cavalcade of stars have reportedly been invited, including Selena Gomez, Emma Stone, Jason Kelce (of course) and Patrick Mahomes. But will there be a castle? Will pals, including Ed Sheeran, perform? How extensive is the security? Experts including the private security contractor Melvin Key and the luxury event planners Michelle Rago and JoAnn Gregoli spoke with The Wall Street Journal about what goes into protecting the weddings of the ultrawealthy: Key, the D.C.-based security contractor, said ultraprivate weddings could have as many as three different security teams at work. These often include private agencies as well as local law enforcement. Private security tends to recruit from the military and police forces; they also hire retired agents from Israel’s Mossad or Shin Bet, he said. The security costs for weddings could go up to $350,000, Rago said. Gregoli said she’d worked on weddings where the security bill hit $1 million, since it required securing a venue a week ahead. Boots on the ground cost money, but so does technology like drone surveillance and devices that scramble drone signals. Another planner, Sharon Sacks, told The Journal, “We’re not just wedding planners, we’re a SWAT team.” Also worth noting: The permit for an extra-large event in New York City, including street closures, can cost as much as $66,000 a day, The Times adds.
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