Washington, DC

1. Crypto talks complicated
2. Iran negotiations slow
3. Dems’ new litmus test
4. Waiting on jobs report
5. Trump Accounts details
6. Investigative workaround
7. El-Sayed on record

PDB: Trump’s Fourth worry

Trump on CNBC … Russia launches deadly attacks on Kyiv … US advances in World Cup over Bosnia

Trump’s $1B crypto haul complicates talks

News that President Donald Trump made more than $1 billion from cryptocurrency while in office has emboldened Senate Democrats who want industry-friendly legislation to stop him from profiting off digital assets — potentially making it harder still to strike a deal this year. The lawmakers had previously conceded they can’t restrict Trump’s sons even though the pair conduct most of their family’s crypto business. Now, Democrats believe Trump’s latest financial disclosure strengthens their hand as they negotiate the rest of the ethics language — including whether to allow private parties, along with state officials, to sue over violations. Still, it’s unlikely any final product reins in Trump entirely, especially without constraining his sons. “A lot of Dems really want to bankrupt Trump — and they can’t,” another person said. “The entire model of a president’s ethics is electoral and the voters have clearly established they don’t care. … We’re just screwed.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Trump stuck as Iran negotiations drag on

The Trump administration isn’t ruling out further military action against Iran as negotiations grow more complicated. But those around Trump say he’s reluctant to restart the conflict, even as they warn he will if pushed far enough. (The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that Trump had been briefed on options for more strikes.) Huge gaps remain between Washington and Tehran, as evidenced by the fact that the two countries did not sit down with each other yesterday, and instead, held separate talks with Qatar and Pakistan. The US is still pushing Iran against tolling the Strait of Hormuz, while negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program that would move the needle seem like a distant dream. Meanwhile, oil prices slid to pre-war levels as shipments through the strait increase, with Brent crude falling below $71 a barrel Thursday, the lowest level since late February.

— Shelby Talcott

Democrats face new Israel litmus test

Democrats are waking up to a new reality: Impeaching Trump just doesn’t land the way it used to. After two prominent backers of Trump’s impeachments lost their primaries to candidates with few major policy differences, Israel is eclipsing the desire to hold the Republican president accountable as a motivating factor for many Democratic base voters, Semafor’s Nicholas Wu and David Weigel report. Both Reps. Diana DeGette, D-Colo., and Dan Goldman, D-N.Y., played major roles in leading the case against Trump, but that message isn’t sticking. “People appreciate those that have held … presidents, fascists, or ICE accountable in the past, but what they care most about is: What the hell are you doing right now to alleviate the fear, the pressures, and the struggles that I’m living in right now,” said Rep. Delia Ramirez, D-Ill.

Fed waits on jobs numbers

The Labor Department releases its June report later today, a data point that will inform the Fed’s meeting as it weighs how to fight inflation later this month and give the Trump administration another indication of the job market’s strength. Wall Street is forecasting 115,000 new jobs last month, after May’s report blew past expectations. Private-sector jobs grew less than expected in June, according to ADP’s report out yesterday. Today’s data will follow positive news on consumer confidence, which improved during the same period, though US consumers are still grappling with high, war-fueled inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said yesterday that “inflation risks have come down,” but declined to predict whether the central bank would increase rates at its July meeting. Weekly jobless claims for last week are also out today.

No rollovers for Trump Accounts

The Trump administration is expected to launch Trump Accounts next week without a way for firms to host the children’s savings accounts on their own platforms, people familiar with the talks told Semafor. Firms like Chime, Empower, Fidelity, and SoFi had initially hoped they would have the green light to roll over the accounts from the Treasury Department’s app, developed in coordination with Bank of New York Mellon and Robinhood, in time to capitalize on their launch. Now, they’re crossing their fingers that guidance comes by August at the latest, one of the people said. “We expect [Treasury officials] to define requirements and work with firms to figure out who’s best situated to host rollover accounts,” the person said, adding that the rollover accounts will boost signups because “more people can participate through their trusted provider.” Experts estimate that more than half of the children eligible to receive $1,000 in seed money still have not enrolled. The Treasury Department did not comment.

— Eleanor Mueller

Republicans plot an investigative end run

Congressional Republicans could bank on an unorthodox investigative strategy if they lose the House this fall: relying on the threat of parallel probes by the Trump administration to power the House minority’s congressional investigations next Congress. It could amount to an unusual assertion of power from the House minority, which historically has almost no ability to enforce any of its own investigative requests. “If the Democrats take the House in November, the Republican minority will be among the strongest in history because they likely will have the Trump administration backing them on core issues that they remain aligned on,” said James Mandolfo, who oversaw the House GOP’s investigation into then-President Joe Biden’s family. “The reason this matters is because the Trump administration could take action against those companies/institutions that don’t comply with any requests from the minority.”

— Nicholas Wu

El-Sayed unloads on his opponents

The scale of recent left-wing victories is raising the hopes of progressive Democrats like Abdul El-Sayed, a candidate for Senate in Michigan. A poll conducted by Tulchin Research for Fighting for Michigan, a pro-El-Sayed super PAC, puts him at 46% in the primary, while Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., gets 27% and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow gets 17%. In an interview with Semafor’s David Weigel in Allen Park, El-Sayed shut down center-left critics who have mobilized against his campaign, accusing the group Third Way of ” launder[ing] the same old sh*t ideas that have buried towns like this one.” He attacked Stevens over her pro-Israel stance, calling her “a suit with a large AIPAC bank account, that’s it.” And El-Sayed insisted he is Senate Democrats’ best shot at defeating GOP candidate Mike Rogers, whom he said he’d leave in “pieces.”

Blindspot: DOJ and CBP

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: The Justice Department announced charges against a woman for allegedly sending thousands of dollars to help a militant group wage attacks on Israel.

What the Right isn’t reading: Customs and Border Protection officials testified that drug seizures at the US border with Canada are dropping.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Senate Republicans have been confirming circuit and district court judges at a faster pace than during the first Trump administration. “We’re grinding through it, and we’ll keep doing that,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune. “It’s a big priority.”

Playbook: “They’re a national power,” MAGA podcaster Steve Bannon said of the wave of leftist Democratic candidates sweeping state primaries. “They have worked below the surface to perfect a ground game and a canvassing operation. It’s too late for the Democrats to recreate that.”

Axios: “The Supreme Court spent its latest term sidelining Congress and amassing power for itself and the presidency.”

White House

• The White House is worried about low turnout for Fourth of July celebrations in Washington, due to high heat and a late start time. — CNN

Congress

• Former Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., and retiring Rep. Mike McCaul, R-Texas, were named to the UNICEF USA board of directors, according to a release shared with Semafor.
• Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., asked the Federal Reserve’s inspector general to probe whether Fed vice chair Michelle Bowman violated any rules by speaking at a Bank of America dinner. — WSJ
• Paramedics responded to a patient in “cardiac arrest” at the home address of Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on the day his office said he had been hospitalized.

Outside the Beltway

• Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will be married at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Friday. — AP
• Mayor Zohran Mamdani will give a “major address” to mark the US’ 250th birthday. — NBC
• Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis fired two state clemency board members who objected to Polis’ move to free a prominent 2020 election denier.