Texas Is a Tossup. The Times/Siena Poll Points to How It Got There.
Democrats haven’t won a statewide contest in Texas in decades, but the latest New York Times/Siena poll suggests there’s a real opportunity for Democrats to break the losing streak this November. In the Senate race, the Democrat James Talarico and the Republican Ken Paxton are tied at 47 percent. That’s the best result for Democrats in nearly a decade of Times/Siena polling of Texas. You can read my colleagues’ full story on the results here. Just about everything would need to go right for Democrats to win a state that President Trump won by 14 percentage points in 2024 — and, so far, everything has. The poll finds Democrats benefiting from a favorable national political environment, and a favorable matchup between an unpopular Republican and popular Democratic nominee. Alone, none of it is enough for Democrats to win Texas. Together, it adds up to a tossup. It also adds up to an enormous reversal of Republican fortune among Hispanic voters, who backed Mr. Talarico by a wide margin, 61-29, in the poll. This is a huge reversion from 2024, when the Hispanic vote was essentially tied, according to our estimates.
At least some of that Republican strength was bound to fade even if Democrats didn’t flip a single Trump voter. That’s because Mr. Trump's gains among Hispanic voters — which were enormous in their own right — were concentrated among irregular voters, many of whom turned out for a presidential election but are likely to stay home in November for the midterms. But many national polls and this Texas poll show Democratic gains among Hispanic voters going well beyond what would be expected from turnout alone. Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy and other issues including immigration have taken an enormous toll on his standing. His approval rating among Hispanic voters in Texas is just 27 percent in the poll, helping drag his statewide approval rating down to 44 percent. Without relatively robust support among Hispanic voters, the Republican hold on Texas is tenuous at best. In recent years, the state has stayed reliably Republican only because G.O.P. gains among Hispanic voters, who represent more than 20 percent of the electorate, have canceled out relative weakness among white voters in the state’s fast-growing suburbs. With Mr. Trump’s support among Hispanic voters faltering, the Republican advantage in Texas has evaporated. The close race in the poll isn’t simply because of Mr. Trump or his party’s weakness this cycle. The poll finds Republicans still leading by six points on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters whether they’ll vote for Republicans or Democrats for Congress. It’s a solid result for Democrats in a state where Mr. Trump had a dominant win, but it’s not so strong for it to propel Democrats to victory on its own. But the Senate race is a tossup anyway and there’s a simple explanation: the candidates. Most obviously, Republicans have nominated Mr. Paxton, who in recent years has been indicted and impeached, and he’s now entangled in a messy, public divorce. He’s the kind of flawed candidate who could cost his party a race it might otherwise expect to win.
Overall, 50 percent have an unfavorable view of Mr. Paxton, compared with 39 percent with a favorable view. A majority say he doesn’t have good character or moral values. Perhaps more surprising than Mr. Paxton’s weaknesses are Mr. Talarico’s strengths. Early in the campaign, the poll finds him to be a well-liked candidate — one who seems more than solid enough to capitalize on Mr. Paxton’s vulnerabilities, at least for now. Mr. Talarico receives positive ratings on every question asked in the survey. Overall, 46 percent of voters have a favorable view of him compared with 39 percent with an unfavorable one. Those are healthy numbers under any circumstance, but they’re particularly impressive given the state’s partisan lean (Republicans outnumbered Democrats by nine points in the survey). A majority of voters express confidence in his character and moral values. So far this cycle, Democrats aren’t making especially large inroads among white voters, whether in national polls or even in our poll in Maine, one of the nation’s whitest states. But because of Mr. Paxton’s woes and Mr. Talarico’s strengths, Mr. Talarico is faring much better than either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris did among white voters in Texas — including leading among white college graduates. Importantly in this conservative state, only 39 percent say Mr. Talarico is too far to the left; in comparison, 55 percent say the same about the Democratic Party. There’s a case that Mr. Talarico’s early strengths represent an opportunity for Republicans. To the extent that he’s competitive because voters think he’s a moderate, Republicans can plausibly hope to persuade them otherwise as the campaign intensifies. Mr. Talarico has a lengthy record of past comments — including saying God is nonbinary and describing himself as “a Christian who hates Christianity” — that Republicans can put to use. So far, Republicans have not yet waged an expensive ad campaign in one of the nation’s largest and thus costliest states. But with four months to go until the election, there’s plenty of time for Republicans to try to redefine a relatively unknown candidate. With the race tied in the early going, Republicans may not need to accomplish much to edge ahead. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Send me a note at dear.upshot@nytimes.com.
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