Washington, DC

1. Vance sells ceasefire
2. Speedy nomination for Clayton
3. Trump meets Macron
4. Anthropic’s appeal to Commerce
5. House-Senate housing split
6. The war’s fallout

Markets rally ▲ and oil prices drop ▼ on news of a “digitally” signed deal with Iran.

Vance sells US-Iran ceasefire agreement

Vice President JD Vance appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and Good Morning America today to sell the US-Iran ceasefire deal, a challenge for the White House as conflicting reports have emerged on details that remain under wraps. Vance said the memorandum of understanding, which representatives from each side signed “digitally” last night, creates a 60-day window for “technical negotiations,” including over key points like the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and how Iran might access frozen assets or sanctions relief. When the strait will reopen is a big open question, with one senior US official telling reporters there could be “a significant increase” in traffic in two weeks, while another suggested a Friday timeline. President Donald Trump indicated the text of the memorandum is unlikely to be released before Friday, when Vance plans to attend a ceremonial signing in Geneva.

Senate GOP races on DNI, surveillance

Republicans want to quickly move Jay Clayton’s nomination to be the director of national intelligence, a bid to preempt Bill Pulte’s scheduled ascension to the role and ease the path toward reviving expired foreign surveillance provisions. Senate Intelligence Chair Tom Cotton, R-Ark., and Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., announced Clayton will get his confirmation hearing on Wednesday, a move that could bring his nomination to the floor this week — if all 100 senators agree. “If he comes out of committee with a strong vote later in the week, we will do everything we can to expedite it,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said today. Restoring the surveillance provisions will be trickier; Trump has said he wants his preferred voter ID legislation attached. Thune said he recently talked to Trump about the surveillance extension but that the so-called SAVE America Act didn’t come up.

Ukraine, Iran dominate Trump’s G7 stop

Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron exchanged pleasantries earlier today ahead of a G7 summit to be dominated by heavier issues like the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Trump called Macron a “special friend” despite their at times fractious relationship, using the meeting in Évian-les-Bains to tout the deal struck with Iran. Macron complimented Trump on the agreement, despite the lack of firm details, calling it a “very important” step that would “fix the nuclear issue.” The two are dining with other G7 leaders tonight, before meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Gulf countries tomorrow. Trump, who spoke separately with Zelenskyy and Russia’s Vladimir Putin yesterday, expressed optimism about the prospect of a path to end that war despite skepticism in Washington. “Maybe we can do something there,” Trump said, adding that both leaders are “open to it.”

Anthropic comes to Washington to solve Mythos dispute

Senior Anthropic technical staff descended on Washington today for a scheduled meeting with officials at the Department of Commerce, as the AI giant scrambles to resolve a dispute with the White House that forced the company to pull its Mythos model from public use last week. The department sent a letter to Anthropic Friday asserting that the consumer version of Mythos, Fable 5, is vulnerable to “jailbreaking,” and directed the company to block distribution to foreign nationals, including Anthropic employees working legally in the US. Anthropic revoked the model globally to comply, but denies the accusation. On Saturday, 80 cybersecurity experts signed an open letter to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick siding with Anthropic. The dispute escalates an existing feud between the Trump administration and Anthropic, which the Department of Defense designated a supply chain risk in March.

House Republican skeptical of Senate housing bill

A top House Republican is pouring cold water on a revamped housing bill that Senate Republicans are teeing up for a floor vote this week. “[This] proposal still includes redlines for members of the House,” said Dan Schneider, a spokesperson for House Financial Services Committee Chair Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., reacting to press descriptions of the package. “We have not received text from the Senate,” he said. Schneider’s statement did not name which provisions might pose a problem. Senate Republicans countered that the bill includes many provisions from the version the House passed in May with wide bipartisan support, and with Trump’s backing. The House and Senate have struggled to pass a housing package, even as it remains one of Trump’s top affordability goals. The House speaker’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

— Nicholas Wu

View: Sectarian fault lines

On Friday, the US and Iran are expected to sign an interim agreement, providing space for more discussions to end the war. Little will change on the surface: Tehran has the same regime, Washington will maintain its regional military presence, and Israel has pledged to keep its finger on the trigger. The Gulf, however, is entering a new era, with shifting alliances, economic damage, and strategic recalculations. Beneath the surface lies another consequence: renewed Sunni-Shia tensions. Islam’s schism isn’t the primary driver of the region’s conflicts, but it is deployed in pursuit of political ambitions. Since 1979, Iran has built Shia proxies across the Arab world. Gulf governments have dabbled abroad as well, while trying to address grievances among their own Shia populations to prevent them from becoming pawns of Tehran. War complicates the domestic front, turning any dissent into treason.

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White House

• President Trump posted on Truth Social today that the July Fourth event celebrating America’s 250th anniversary will be a “Trump rally.”
• Trump’s investment accounts traded between $212 million and $695 million in stocks and other securities over the first three months of the year, an unprecedented sum for a sitting president. — CBS

Campaigns

• An Alaskan election official ruled that a Senate candidate with the same name and party affiliation as Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is ineligible to appear on the ballot.

Congress

• Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, proposed expanding the US Export-Import Bank to support more domestic manufacturing, small businesses, and startups ahead of a key reauthorization deadline.
• Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., sent letters to four large infrastructure investors requesting information on their data center deals. — Axios
• Sen. Peter Welch, D-Vt., and Rep. Dave Min, D-Calif., are pressing the Trump administration on whether “‘pay-to-play’ dynamics” influenced President Trump’s pardon decisions. — Reuters

Immigration

• Last year, the White House debated suspending habeas corpus for undocumented immigrants. — NYT

Courts

• The Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge to President Trump’s first-term China tariffs, leaving in place import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods.
• A federal lawsuit alleges Anthropic oversold the usage allowances it offered and is demanding the company reimburse customers.
• The Department of Justice has several ongoing investigations related to Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom, including his wife and chief of staff, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports. Newsom accused Trump of targeting him for political reasons.

Economy

• US homebuyer confidence slipped in June due to rising mortgage rates, materials costs, and a steep decline in sentiment in the South.

Business

• Fox Corp. said it will acquire Roku in a deal worth $22 billion that is expected to close next year.
• SpaceX’s share price continued to surge during the company’s first full day of trading.
• Nvidia is planning to raise $25 billion through a US bond issuance, a sign the company expects demand for AI chips to continue. — Reuters

Health

• The Trump administration requested an expedited appeal of a federal court decision that halted several vaccine-related actions taken by health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Outside the Beltway

• A B-52 bomber crashed shortly after taking off from an Air Force base in California.

World

• British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the government plans to ban access to social media for all children under 16.