|
|
Software markdowns hit public PE returns: Large public alternatives managers have been quietly writing down or exiting their investments in the software industry and pivoting toward the physical infrastructure that underpins AI, energy and other sectors. Download the research
VC's eggs in one basket: Our latest forecast projects North American VC AUM growing to $2 trillion by 2030 at a 5.4% annualized rate—representing a significant deceleration from the prior decade and unprecedented concentration across the venture ecosystem. Read more |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
| Tim Draper bought 30K BTC at $632. Now he’s betting on real estate. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
| Cheaper, faster, more: defense tech's new playbook |
|
 |
| (Courtesy of US Central Command) |
|
|
The nearly six-week US-Israel air campaign against Iran this spring highlighted two expensive gaps that we believe are now helping redirect private capital in defense tech.
The first gap is the unfavorable economics of countering drones. Iranian attack drones priced at roughly $15,000 to $50,000 apiece were intercepted with US missiles costing between $1 million and $12 million per shot. The Pentagon's fiscal 2027 budget, largely shaped before the conflict, points to more funding for munitions, counter-drone technologies, and advanced autonomous aviation architectures.
Anduril, the defense company behind the Army's newly awarded contract worth up to $20 billion for Lattice and related command-and-control systems, remains the category's anchor. Chaos Industries, last valued at $4.5 billion, and microwave-weapons maker Epirus, $1.35 billion, are emerging as key players.
The second gap is "magazine depth," military shorthand for whether the Pentagon has enough munitions for a prolonged fight. The campaign renewed focus on how quickly precision-strike inventories can be drawn down relative to industrial replenishment rates.
The Pentagon's push for cheap autonomous systems is one response, but the clearer signal came through the Navy's Blackbeard awards to Castelion: a roughly $50 million contract to mature its low-cost hypersonic strike missile, followed by a $105 million contract to field it on F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. In short, the Pentagon and investors are converging around systems that can restore magazine depth through lower unit costs, faster production, and scalable strike capacity.
Our full analyst note covers the effects of the conflict across seven sectors—aerospace & defense, space tech, robotics, oil & gas, clean energy, construction, and transportation & logistics—with winners and losers, diligence criteria and acquisition targets. |
|
Warm regards,
Ali Javaheri
Senior Research Analyst, Emerging Spaces |
|
|
|
|
|
| China's AI funding boom is narrowing around chips and compute |
|
China's artificial intelligence investment boom has cooled dramatically since its 2021 peak. But investors are still pouring money into one part of the market: the infrastructure powering AI itself.
According to our new analyst note, China's AI venture deal value fell from $23.3 billion in 2021 to $7.8 billion in 2023 before stabilizing at around $10 billion in both 2024 and 2025. The pullback mirrors broader weakness across China's venture market, where fundraising, exits, and startup activity have slowed amid weaker economic growth and tighter liquidity conditions.
Yet AI continues to account for a growing share of overall venture investment. More importantly, the capital that remains is becoming increasingly concentrated in semiconductors, compute hardware, and enterprise-focused software rather than consumer-facing AI applications.
The shift reflects how China's AI market is evolving under growing technological and geopolitical pressure. As restrictions on advanced chip access intensify and competition with the US deepens, investors are prioritizing the infrastructure required to build and deploy domestic AI systems.
Semiconductor-related AI deal value nearly doubled in 2025, while hardware investment rebounded sharply after two weaker years. Companies developing AI chips and compute infrastructure, including Moore Threads, Enflame Technology, and Kunlunxin, have attracted some of the market's largest financings.
At the same time, enterprise software has emerged as the dominant software category for AI investment, driven by demand for automation and productivity tools rather than consumer-oriented experimentation. Segments such as social and platform software, once a meaningful part of China's AI funding landscape, have largely faded from venture activity.
The investor base is shifting alongside the market itself. Venture capital firms are still responsible for the majority of deals, but corporate investors, corporate venture capital arms, and government-linked entities are playing a larger role in strategically important sectors such as semiconductors and hardware.
Rather than broad expansion across the AI ecosystem, China's venture market is increasingly concentrating around the technologies viewed as most critical to long-term competitiveness: compute, chips, and enterprise deployment. |
|
Warm regards,
Melanie Tng
Research Analyst, APAC Private Capital |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Q1 2026 Oil & Gas Report
A decade of capital discipline and energy-transition headwinds have left the global oil & gas sector structurally underinvested, and the consequences are arriving faster than expected, according to our debut report on the industry.
Upstream capital expenditure remains roughly 45% below peak levels, yet the industry must replace more than 7 million barrels per day of output annually just to maintain supply. The Iran war has compressed the timeline further.
Against that backdrop, PE deal activity fell 66.9% from its 2014 peak to just 142 transactions in 2025, even as exit value hit a record $108.8 billion—sponsors were harvesting, not redeploying.
Read the all-new research |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Q1 2026 Global Private Market Fundraising Report
Private capital fundraising continued its multiyear lull in Q1.
The challenges that had been plaguing the private capital investment ecosystem—scarce distributions, interest rate pressures, and economic uncertainty—were compounded with fresh geopolitical risks that caused some LPs to step back and consider the new playing field. |
|
Private equity's rolling 12-month fundraising declined for an eighth straight quarter. Combined, real estate and real assets strategies raised a meager $36 billion in Q1.
VC and secondaries funds were the standouts, raising $60.8 billion and $34.3 billion, respectively, during the quarter, though just five US managers were responsible for more than half of the global VC total.
Download the report |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
| | |
