Washington, DC

1. Trump defeats Massie
2. GOP pushes on agenda
3. Castro indictment watch
4. Iran war opposition
5. Trump citizenship order
6. Prediction markets in focus
7. Pressure on Tanzania
8. New US-China equilibrium

PDB: Primary results from Georgia, Pennsylvania, Alabama

Trump speaks at Coast Guard Academy graduation … Nvidia posts earnings … Semafor hosts Banking on the Future Forum in DC

Trump ousts Massie in Kentucky

The most expensive House primary in American history ended with President Donald Trump taking a scalp in Northern Kentucky, the second political victory in his revenge tour in a matter of days. Republicans voted to oust Rep. Thomas Massie, known for his stance against the Iran war and his work drawing attention to the Jeffrey Epstein files, and replace him with Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein. Trump’s political team took a victory lap. Most of the anti-Massie money came from pro-Israel groups and a pop-up PAC led by Trump strategists, which portrayed Massie’s libertarian votes against spending bills as an alliance with left-wing Democrats. “We weren’t running against Donald Trump,” Massie told supporters at his election night party, after joking it took a while to find Gallrein’s phone number “in Tel Aviv” to concede to him. There were chants of “2028” when Massie left the stage.

— David Weigel

Ballroom question clouds GOP agenda

Republicans will try to move their $72 billion immigration enforcement funding bill to the Senate floor today, starting with a Budget Committee vote on its homeland security component this morning, and then a potential move to take up the bill on the Senate floor later in the day. Republicans can afford to lose only three votes and still pass the legislation, which will be subject to an unlimited vote-a-rama. The White House’s security money for the East Wing and ballroom are clouding the bill’s future: Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Bill Cassidy, R-La., wouldn’t commit to advancing the bill as the Judiciary Committee tries to write Secret Service funding that doesn’t run afoul of the Senate’s budget rules. “They don’t know how much money they should ask for, but they picked a number. That’s not the way to run the government,” Cassidy told Semafor.

— Burgess Everett

Trump to turn up temperature on Cuba

The Trump administration will escalate its pressure campaign on Cuba with the indictment of former President Raúl Castro today. Details remain sparse, but the charges are expected to stem from Castro’s alleged role in the downing of two civilian planes decades ago. The forthcoming indictment could come during a ceremony in Miami honoring the people killed in the attack. It seems unlikely, at least for now, that the Trump administration would follow its Venezuela path after the indictment by sending US forces into the country. While Trump’s pressure campaign against Cuba hasn’t resulted in any US-Cuba agreement, the president sounds optimistic about the prospect, telling Semafor Tuesday that he believes a diplomatic deal can be reached. The economic levers used by the Trump administration have already resulted in blackouts and an oil shortage, which have led to riots in Havana.

— Shelby Talcott

Waning Republican support for Iran war

Senate Democrats are chipping away at Trump’s Republican support for the Iran war. The Senate advanced a measure yesterday reining in the war after Cassidy, fresh off his primary loss, became the fourth Republican to vote to move the war powers measure forward. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., opposed the measure and has signaled he won’t budge from his position. Democrats shouldn’t get too excited: With full Senate attendance — which could be the case as soon as today — the measure will fail to advance further without more GOP defections. Still, Republicans are getting increasingly antsy about the war, and the House might pass its own measure to stop it, absent congressional authorization today; Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, signaled he’d vote in favor of a forthcoming measure after opposing others. Of course, House attendance issues could scramble the final math.

— Nicholas Wu

Trump waters down bank citizenship order

The Trump administration will seek to shut out undocumented immigrants from the US financial system under an executive order signed by the president on Tuesday. The final version of the order, which was first reported by Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller, was watered down after spooking banks; people familiar with the talks had expected the president to require banks to collect proof of citizenship — like a passport — from their customers. Instead, Trump directed the Treasury Department to advise financial institutions on ways undocumented immigrants might open accounts or receive loans, and to propose potential changes to Bank Secrecy Act regulations. He also called on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to consider whether things like deportation might impact customers’ ability to repay loans. Trump also signed a second executive order to expand fintech firms’ access to the Federal Reserve’s payment rails, Eleanor also scooped.

— Eleanor Mueller

Senators scrutinize prediction markets

The Senate Commerce Committee will hear from the Coalition of Prediction Markets this morning at a hearing on sports betting, a topic that looms large over the industry’s argument that they should be regulated by the federal government as derivatives exchanges. The coalition’s senior adviser, former House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry, plans to lay out the reasons why members like Kalshi believe they are fundamentally different from sportsbooks or casinos, which are regulated by states and tribes. He’ll also touch on recent court rulings reinforcing that argument. Meanwhile, a new group Kalshi accused of being “casino-led” is circulating a white paper ahead of the hearing pushing back on the company’s argument. Prediction markets have attracted congressional scrutiny in part due to insider trading allegations — a problem that Semafor’s Liz Hoffman bets they’ll fix “because it’s in their financial interest.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Sens. want overhaul of US-Tanzania ties

Senators want the Trump administration to dramatically overhaul the US’ relationship with Tanzania in response to the African nation’s violent crackdown following a disputed presidential election, Semafor’s Adrian Elimian scoops. The new bill from Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Ted Cruz, R-Texas, would authorize sanctions on Tanzanian officials and freeze security assistance to the country amid the political crisis. “Tanzania has long been an important partner in East Africa, but the country’s recent democratic backsliding, political violence and repression cannot be ignored,” Shaheen said. Cruz emphasized reports of Christians being targeted, and accused the Tanzanian government of carrying out “a campaign of political repression and religious persecution.” The State Department said the administration “has been clear it does not seek to lecture other countries but encourages sovereign states to respect the human rights and fundamental freedoms of their citizens.”

View: The new US-China equilibrium

Farewell “win-win cooperation.” For more than a decade, Beijing’s nonstop intoning of the happy-sounding catchphrase — the foundational tenet of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s foreign policy — caused eyes to roll in Washington. American business executives complained that what it really meant was that China wins twice. At his meeting with Trump last week, Xi debuted a solemn new line: “Constructive strategic stability.” In Chinese diplomacy, words matter. Indeed, Beijing’s desire to order relations by using carefully constructed phrases is as old as its civilization. Xi’s revised language signals the ground has shifted under US-China relations once again, and Washington’s friends and allies around the region should be concerned about what comes next. Beijing’s new framing appears intended to send both a message of reassurance that China seeks good relations with the US, and a warning: Don’t cross our red lines.

Blindspot: Trump Jr. and immigration detention

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Donald Trump Jr. and girlfriend Bettina Anderson are set to get married this upcoming Memorial Day weekend, Page Six reported.

What the Right isn’t reading: A new autopsy report confirmed that a Haitian man’s death in US immigration custody in Arizona was connected to his dental problems.

On Thursday, June 11, Semafor will convene The Future of Philanthropy to examine how, for generations, philanthropy has backed ideas ahead of their time — from early childhood education to breakthrough research that later became public goods. As the US approaches its 250th anniversary, the sector faces a pivotal moment: under increasing political scrutiny, it’s more vital than ever to expanding opportunity and driving innovation.

Join Semafor for on-the-record conversations on how philanthropy can scale solutions for workforce mobility and community resilience. Featuring: Emma Bloomberg, Founder & CEO, Murmuration; Asha Curran, CEO, GivingTuesday; Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, Bipartisan Philanthropy Caucus; Steve Preston, President & CEO, Goodwill Industries International; and Tim Shriver, Chairman, Special Olympics, CEO & Co-Founder, UNITE.

June 11 | Washington, DC | Request Invite