Thursday, May 14, 2026

American businesses locked in a win earlier this year when the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s universal tariffs as illegal, setting up a time-consuming refund process that led to initial payments landing in bank accounts this week.

They’re on their way to a second victory, if recent events are a guide.

Last week, the Court of International Trade knocked down the 10% global tariff that the White House imposed only days after their stinging defeat at the Supreme Court. It invalidated the second wave of universal tariffs and said they weren’t justified under a 1970s trade law cited for a distinct economic crisis.

Federal judges kept the ruling narrow and only paused tariffs on the plaintiffs in the case, made up of two small businesses and the state of Washington. The tariff’s broad reach remains in force. However, some trade observers believe the stage is being set for the case to keep climbing the rungs of federal courts and eventually result in another batch of refunds for U.S. companies.

“I expect this to kind of follow the same timeline as the IEEPA court cases,” said Jacob Jensen, a trade expert at the American Action Forum, referring to the executive authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act that Trump first used to levy tariffs on virtually every country last year.

Peter Harrell, an international economics expert who served in the Biden administration, said in a recent LinkedIn post that most companies “should be able to get refunds” if this decision keeps being upheld.

The White House had long said the 10% global tariff was designed as an interim measure while it establishes legal avenues for longer-lasting levies. The current tariffs are scheduled to expire in July unless Congress extends them.

The Trump administration has since appealed the ruling, putting in motion another legal battle revolving around the signature tariff policies he’s used to encourage domestic manufacturing and coerce foreign governments into signing new trade deals. So far, a smaller sum is at stake. Importers are estimated to have paid $25 billion under the interim tariff regime so far.

Trump has appeared unfazed by the ruling and vowed to pursue alternate avenues to enact his prized tariffs. We always do it a different way,” the president told reporters after the decision. “We get one ruling, and we do it a different way.”

Now that the Trump administration has appealed the decision, the case heads to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. It could take months before their decision is issued. The next stop is the Supreme Court if either side appeals the outcome.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection is in charge of issuing $166 billion in tariff refunds to over 330,000 importers. Many trade analysts initially feared the process would get tangled up in bureaucratic hurdles that delayed payments. So far, they’re encouraged by the speed.

Early data from legal filings show CBP is usually taking a week to validate refund declarations, a quicker timeline than anticipated. The first refunds started reaching importers earlier this week. Around 75,000 businesses have filed applications for the refunds, with potential hurdles ahead for smaller firms.

“I believe the harder cases are going to heavily fall into smaller importers and small businesses. A lot of those haven't even signed up for the process yet,” Jensen said. “They don't have a team behind them like some of the larger players.”

Indeed, the larger companies are already accounting for tariff refunds into their bottom lines. General Motors, the automaker, said it expected to get repaid $500 million by the U.S. government. The development bolstered its profits for the first quarter of the year, though the automaker is still on the hook for other tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars.

A Citi analysis in April estimated hefty payouts for blue-chip retailers in this batch of refunds. Walmart is owed $10 billion while Target is due to receive $2 billion among others.

Businesses are operating in a messy economic environment complicated by tariffs and fallout from the Iran War. For now, trade lawyers are advising importers to keep paying the existing 10% tariffs but to preserve their rights to future refunds should federal courts continue siding against the Trump administration. It’s a good bet that a second payday is in their future, even if it’s a distant one.

— Joseph Zeballos-Roig

Consumer prices rose 3.8% in April, the fastest rate in three years due to the Iran War. Spiking gas prices drove a large chunk of the increase. Combined with higher food costs, the developments inflict higher prices on families and businesses.