Americana

1. Nebraska elections latest
2. Redistricting update
3. Anti-incumbent mood reigns
4. Don’t blame Canada
5. Bluegrass ad battle
6. MI-SEN, polled

You don’t have to imagine what Los Angeles would look like under Mayor Spencer Pratt. AI already did it for you.

In one of the reality TV star-turned-candidate’s campaign videos, happy firefighters, cops, and mothers celebrate “Pratt Summer” and how it solved the city’s problems: “I’m allowed to arrest criminals now, with handcuffs and everything!” In another Pratt video, the Republican hopeful suits up as Batman and overthrows the corrupt court of incumbent Democratic Mayor Karen Bass; sitting in her throne, glowering at peasants, she’s pelted with tomatoes that smudge her Joker facepaint.

It’s all thanks to Charles Curran, who uses AI to live his “Roger Corman dream” of instant art. He started making Pratt fan content just nine days ago. It’s now impossible not to see it, if you follow famous conservatives on X, read the New York Post, or watch TMZ. The former star of The Hills has linked homelessness to “super meth” despite mixed evidence of its rising use and promised to clean up encampments weeks after being sworn in.

“What’s worrying me now is that his social media has taken a violent turn,” Bass told CNN on Tuesday — remarks immediately clipped as proof that Pratt’s videos were working.

Conservative streamers don’t see how Pratt can lose. Democrats don’t see how he can win. But he is climbing in the polls, as a new Emerson survey shows — for a few reasons.

Good news for Osborn in the Nebraska Democratic primary

Democratic primary voters in Nebraska on Tuesday picked Denise Powell to compete for the state’s 2nd Congressional District, the only open seat in the country that supported Kamala Harris in 2024 while electing a Republican to the House. (That Republican, Rep. Don Bacon is retiring, and Omaha makes up most of the electorate.)

Backed by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, Powell pushed past state Sen. John Cavanaugh, the early favorite, after warning voters that his seat would be filled by GOP Gov. Jim Pillen if he defeated her. The downside of that possibility: Pillen could allow Republicans to deny Omaha its Democratic-leaning “blue dot” electoral vote.

Democrats also nominated Chris Backemeyer, a former State Department official who was downsized by DOGE, in the Lincoln-based 1st Congressional District, which the party believes could be competitive in a wave. Dan Osborn, the Independent candidate for Senate who’s running again this year, carried the 1st District in his 2024 race.

Osborn got good news of his own, too, avoiding a potential hurdle as the Democratic nod for Senate in Nebraska went to activist Cindy Burbank. She planned to quit the race and clear a path for Osborn if she won; she defeated William Forbes, a conservative pastor seen as a plant for Republicans, with 90% of the vote.

A Republican effort to push Burbank off the ballot as a “bad faith” candidate backfired and drew attention to the stakes. 

Where southern states stand on post-SCOTUS remapping

Alabama Republicans have joined Louisiana in delaying their primaries to take advantage of favorable Supreme Court rulings that will let them draw out majority-Black Democratic districts — and South Carolina Republicans narrowly avoided joining them.

This newest development happened after the Supreme Court’s six conservatives allowed Alabama to debate a return to the 6-1 Republican map it put in place for the 2022 elections, scrapping the 5-2 map that a lower court forced on the state for 2024. That meant throwing out mail votes already cast in some House primaries, as Louisiana did; the primary for the Senate seat held by gubernatorial candidate Tommy Tuberville will go ahead next week.

Why did South Carolina Republicans decline to follow suit? A measure to redraw the state’s map in a special session and eliminate the safe seat held by Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., failed after 29 GOP senators supported it; 31 votes were needed.

Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., a gubernatorial hopeful who called for Republicans to nix the Clyburn seat even before the Supreme Court decision, said that he’d work to defeat the party’s holdouts if he won. But despite the setback in Columbia, Democrats undeniably have fewer states to compete for new maps in.

Two New England Democrats confront a forced torch-passing

MERRIMAC, Mass. — The troubles of elderly Democratic incumbents have not ended in New England, where two liberals born during the Truman administration are facing increasingly serious primary challengers.

Connecticut Rep. John Larson lost the local Democratic endorsement for a new term on Monday as party delegates picked former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, who will now face Larson and lesser-known challengers in the Aug. 11 primary. And last week, an Emerson poll found 47-year-old Rep. Seth Moulton running just five points behind Sen. Ed Markey in Democrats’ Massachusetts Senate primary.

That showing for Moulton looked far stronger than the conventional wisdom, which pegged him as a flawed challenger to a 79-year old progressive who managed to rebrand himself as a young-at-heart street fighter to best a young primary challenger in 2020. “Senator Markey, he’s supporting Sen. Schumer [for leader],” said Moulton, who opposes Schumer. “He encouraged Biden to stay in the race, as opposed to getting out.”

Democrats take notes on Carney’s winning economic message

TORONTO — The Democratic Party’s search for salvation took some of its biggest names to the other side of the Great Lakes recently, as progressives from North America and Europe gathered to discuss their fight against right-wing populism.

Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elissa Slotkin represented the Americans, fretting that their country needed democratic reform and that their own party was stuck in the past. They found a lot to like about the path carved by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who’s moved his Liberal Party to the right since taking office.

Carney keynoted the Center for American Progress’ Global Progress Action summit with a message that could travel anywhere: People felt a “loss of control,” and voters would support right-wing populists unless their political opponents focused more keenly on results — accelerating affordable housing and lowering the cost of living.

Massie and Gallrein blare their last messages in Kentucky

Next week’s House primary in northern Kentucky will be a closely watched episode in the Republican Party’s long-running drama: incumbents trying to survive after crossing Donald Trump.

The closing reelection message from Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky. — titled The Job” — claims that his opponent “woke Ed Gallrein” doesn’t understand that a lawmaker doesn’t “report to the president.” A picture of the debt clock button Massie wears reminds voters that the libertarian-leaning gadfly has repeatedly broken from Trump by voting against major spending bills.

Gallrein’s closing ad, “Ed Gallrein Supports Term Limits,” reminds those voters that Massie originally said he’d serve four terms and is now asking for an eighth. President Trump “asked me to step up” and stop Massie, the primary challenger adds.Super PACs on both sides of the primary have played a lot tougher. MAGA KY, the pop-up Trump PAC working against Massie, used AI to show Massie canoodling with the left-wing Democrats he casts “no” votes with.

The pro-Massie Hold the Line PAC, in its final spot, accused Gallrein of shadowy pro-LGBTQ views forced upon him by GOP donor Paul Singer, who appears with a dog-whistle image: a rainbow-colored Star of David.

Democrats try some Michigan game theory

The proximate House crisis for Democrats this year is the gerrymandering hall pass that the Supreme Court has given southern Republicans. Their proximate Senate crisis lies in Michigan, where ex-Rep. Mike Rogers, who nearly won the state’s other seat in 2024, continues to lead Democrats. (Polling at this point in 2024 showed Rogers losing.)

The other problem for DC Democrats: They believe that Bernie Sanders-endorsed Abdul El-Sayed would have the hardest time beating Rogers in a general election, but El-Sayed has gained ground as he’s gotten better known.

The progressive has benefited from a weeks-long controversy over his decision to campaign with left-wing influencer Hasan Piker. El-Sayed used that controversy for hours of earned media. He’s also seized on reporting that DC Democrats prefer McMorrow or Stevens against them by casting himself as the party establishment’s least favorite. As a result, that establishment is wary of making more official endorsements, which could backfire and further boost El-Sayed.

“I’m not going to get involved in this primary, and that’s been the tradition for elected Democratic leaders,” said Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., who beat Rogers in 2024. Asked if she ever felt jealous of Republicans, whose primaries are often settled by Trump endorsements, she said no: “I don’t think they’re thrilled in Ohio that Trump just came in, pushed out all their up-and-coming Ohio politicians, and put in Vivek Ramaswamy.”

On Wednesday, May 20, Sen. Tina Smith, D-Minn., will join Semafor for the Banking on the Future Forum.

The global financial landscape is evolving at a pace unseen in previous years, propelled by the adoption of new technologies and rapid innovation. As Washington’s regulatory approach evolves, new opportunities are emerging, but questions remain around how these policy shifts will impact the industry and how consumers access services.

Semafor editors will host on-the-record conversations with Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., Ranking Member of the House Financial Services Committee; Rep. Tom Emmer, R-Minn., House Majority Whip and Vice Chairman, House Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence; Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wisc., Chairman, House Financial Services Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence; and other industry leaders on how policy and technology are shaping the future of finance.

Join us as we examine how evolving regulations are shaping innovation and what they signal for the future of financial technology.