Good morning. Predictability has never been a hallmark of Donald Trump’s foreign visits, and his arrival in Beijing today will likely be no exception – more on that below, along with Ottawa’s pipeline ambitions and the return of Dunkin’ Donuts. But first:

• Ottawa, Alberta close to reaching industrial carbon pricing deal, sources say
• British PM Starmer defies growing calls to resign after several ministers quit in protest
• Some Ontario private career colleges are accrediting truck drivers without minimum training, the Auditor-General finds

The last time U.S. President Donald Trump flew to China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping, in November of 2017, he was treated to a four-hour private tour of the Forbidden City, complete with tea, opera and a banquet featuring fish sizzled in chili oil and beef stewed in tomatoes. (That might’ve been a concession to Trump’s well-known preference for well-done steak with ketchup.) It was, according to Beijing back then, a “state visit-plus.”

There will probably be a smidge less pomp when Air Force One lands in China tonight. After all, Trump’s war in Iran – which has triggered the most severe oil supply shock in history, raised fears of a global recession, cost US$29-billion to date and delayed this visit once already – continues to drag on. The mood is tense, though some pageantry could help mask the lack of major bilateral progress.

So should we expect any breakthroughs over the next two days in Beijing? James Griffiths, The Globe and Mail’s Asia correspondent, has put together a handy primer for the Trump-Xi summit. Here’s what to know.

The stakes: High! Combined, the United States and China represent more than 40 per cent of the world’s economic activity, but last year, an escalating series of tit-for-tat tariffs nearly cut off trade between the two countries altogether. Trump and Xi agreed to a temporary truce last October, with the hope of signing a more comprehensive trade deal during this week’s visit.

The expectations: Low! The Trump administration has been so consumed by the Iran war and its fallout that little advance work seems to have gone into the summit. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had one sit-down with Chinese officials in Paris two months ago – and nothing since. “That doesn’t really seem promising in terms of delivering a robust set of outcomes for this meeting,” observed Jonathan Czin, a former CIA expert on China now based at the Brookings Institution.

The entourage: Big, regardless! Beyond Bessent, trade czar Jamieson Greer, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth (a last-minute add), Trump’s son Eric and, for some reason, Eric’s wife/Fox News host Lara Trump, the U.S. delegation includes more than a dozen Big Tech leaders. Among them: outgoing Apple chief executive Tim Cook, newish Meta president Dina Powell McCormick and Elon Musk, evidently back in Trump’s good books.

The agenda: Honestly, who knows? Trade, Tehran and Taiwan are meant to be the biggies, but it’s not as though Trump is a stickler for any sort of script.

On trade, there are a few easy wins up for grabs. The U.S. could ease its curbs on China’s semiconductor exports and chip-making equipment. Beijing could agree to resume selling rare earths and critical minerals to U.S. companies, and buy more American soybeans and Boeing airplanes.

The White House has signalled it wants Xi’s help ending the war in Iran. Last week, Bessent told Fox News (though not Lara Trump) that China should “step up with some diplomacy to get the Iranians to open the Strait” of Hormuz. As Tehran’s largest trading partner and the top buyer of its oil, Beijing does have influence, and since its own economy relies heavily on exports, China would rather avoid a global recession that reduces demand for its goods. But Xi’s in no hurry to get involved in the Middle East: China’s oil reserves and electric vehicles have helped it weather the energy shock.

Perhaps a different U.S. position on Taiwan would persuade him. China claims the self-ruled island as its territory, and Trump could agree to change the official U.S. policy from “not supporting” Taiwan’s formal independence to “opposing” it instead. But Czin doesn’t think Beijing will expend too much energy getting Trump to make that rhetorical shift. “Either the distinction will be lost on him, frankly, or he’ll wake up the next morning and Truth Social out the exact opposite,” he told Griffiths.

The takeaway: To borrow a favoured Trump expression, China has the cards here. “More than any other government, China has called Trump’s bluff, matching him tariff-for-tariff last year and getting him to unwind the trade war that he started,” Griffiths says. “Now Trump’s heading to Beijing with a far weaker hand, after launching an actual war that has hurt China economically, but not as much as most countries – including the U.S.”

A moratorium has mostly kept oil tankers out of Hecate Strait in northern B.C. – but Canada’s energy ambitions could mean a new pipeline and far more traffic through its 35-foot waves. Read more here about the fight over the strait from The Globe’s Justine Hunter.