Good morning. I’m filling in for Chris Wilson-Smith, who was at an annual conference held by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) to accept a Best in Business award for this newsletter (everyone say congrats to Chris!). In focus today is what we’re watching this week, plus CEOs share their mom’s best advice.

Middle East: U.S. President Donald Trump says Iran’s peace proposal response was “unacceptable,” raising fears the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed and sending oil prices higher.

Institutional investing: Behind Alphabet’s record-breaking Canadian bond deal.

Security: The B.C. Securities Commission identifies more than 100 money mules in investment fraud cases.

Defence: Tension is high among the Canadian cities pursuing a bid to host a new multilateral defence bank.

Hi, I’m Stefanie Marotta, the banking reporter at The Globe and Mail. Here’s my take on the five files worth watching this week in business news.

1. Economic Forecasting

The Bank of Canada is set to release its market participants survey for the first quarter. The survey samples 27 to 30 representatives from banks, dealers, pension funds, insurers, and asset-management and research firms.

While the results are unlikely to move markets, the survey is interesting because it indicates how the people who trade Canadian rates, bonds and currency are interpreting the economy, inflation and the path of monetary policy.

In the last survey, trade tensions dominated the risks, with respondents seeing easing trade tensions as the biggest upside risk and worsening trade tensions as the biggest downside risk. Respondents expected inflation to stay close to target, at 2.1 per cent by the end of 2026.

Also coming up this week from the central bank:

• On Wednesday, the BoC will release its summary of deliberations from its last rate announcement – a hold, but with hints of hikes down the road.
• Later that day, the bank’s external deputy governor will deliver a speech on what AI adoption could mean for productivity and economic potential.

2. Consumer costs

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for April – the most widely cited measure of inflation, which also draws the most political attention – drops on Tuesday.

The war with Iran has skyrocketed gasoline prices, putting pressure on inflation.

With U.S. inflation stubbornly sitting above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s target for so long, some economy watchers say policymakers have accepted higher levels as the new normal. The question on everyone’s mind: will inflation creep even higher?

In March, U.S. inflation surged by the most in nearly four years.

If this week’s report shows inflation is even “stickier” than projected, markets fear the Federal Reserve might have to raise rates further, which could hit stock valuations and further dampen demand for borrowing.

What does this mean for Canadians? Higher-than-expected inflation could lift the U.S. dollar, weaken the loonie and push Canadian bond yields higher – the same yields lenders use to price fixed-rate mortgages.

3. Telecom chatter

Leaders in the telecommunications sector will gather this week at the Canadian Telecom Summit, where AI is expected to dominate the conversation.

Canada’s telecom giants have been grappling with how to implement the technology.

Most of the current-use cases in AI revolve around productivity and cost savings. Last week, Telus Corp. said it deployed AI models that alters the accents of customer service agents.

The big question among investors: when will AI start to generate revenue for large companies? Canada biggest banks have just started to figure out the answer.

The opportunity could offer the industry a lifeline. Last week, both BCE and Telus reported a drop in profit amid heavy wireless competition.

4. Housing woes

Later in the week, we’re getting a two-day run of housing data that will offer a wide look at the state of the real estate market.