The Iran war is already causing pain for American motorists, who are paying more than $4.50 a gallon for petrol. Now Americans face a grocery-price shock. Our analysis explains why.

There’s better news, though, from the European front. For the first time in nearly three years the initiative in the war with Russia seems to have shifted in Ukraine’s favour. We analyse the causes and ask whether Ukraine’s advantage will last.

What to expect in the week ahead:

▸Donald Trump visits Xi Jinping, China’s paramount leader, in Beijing on Thursday and Friday, the first of four meetings expected this year. The talks will focus on commerce—for nearly a decade the countries have been engaged in an on-again, off-again trade war. Taiwan is likely to come up, too; Chinese officials have hinted that the more Mr Trump bends on Taiwan, the more China will give on trade. But tensions between the two governments run so deep it would be naive to expect a breakthrough.

▸On the same days India hosts a meeting of the foreign ministers of the BRICS bloc. It will be the first such gathering since the war in Iran began. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, is set to attend, as is a senior Iranian envoy. The agenda is expected to focus on the conflict and its disruption of global energy flows, as well as de-dollarisation.  

▸Britain publishes GDP data for the first quarter of this year on Thursday. The economy grew by 0.5% in the three months to February, compared with 0.3% in the three months to January. But that was before the war in Iran began. The IMF has since revised down its growth estimate for Britain’s economy in 2026 by half a percentage point, more than for any other G7 country.