Washington, DC

1. Dems’ campaign challenge
2. GOP’s Maine Senate plan
3. House prediction market ban?
4. GOP’s war faultlines
5. Iraq haunts Iran war
6. Trump in Florida

PDB: House passes FISA extension

US reports manufacturing PMI … Exxon releases earnings … May Day protests planned

Dems wrestle over their campaign agenda

Democrats agree that they need a plan for what they’d do with the power they’re asking voters to give them in the midterms. The details of that hypothetical agenda are another story, Semafor’s Nicholas Wu and Burgess Everett report. The party is in the first throes of a raging debate over how specific it needs to be in order to ride anti-Donald Trump sentiment to victory. Democrats are confident that backlash against the president’s chaotic return to office positions them to flip the House this fall and puts the Senate in play, but their congressional leaders are still scrambling to give voters the clearer vision that the public wants. “As disorganized and jacked up as the GOP is, and even with all the things that Trump is doing, we need an affirmative agenda for the American people,” said Rep. Marilyn Strickland, D-Wash.

Republicans wage ‘assault’ on Platner

Republicans are pivoting in Maine’s Senate race to a negative barrage against presumptive nominee Graham Platner after Gov. Janet Mills dropped out of the Democratic primary, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., said in an interview that Mills was more “mainstream” and that he feels driven to defeat Platner. “We should have an all-out assault on the concept that somehow, some way, Graham Platner will squeak through. He has to be exposed,” Scott said. GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund chief Alex Latcham was more blunt: “He’ll no longer be able to live in the state after we thoroughly beat the sh*t out of him.” Democrats have their own anti-Collins campaign they are executing. “Bring it on. Susan Collins is an anemic and tired candidate,” said Senate Majority PAC spokesperson Lauren French.

Prediction markets ban for lawmakers?

The House may follow the Senate in banning lawmakers and staff from taking part in prediction markets after the Senate unanimously passed a ban for senators on Thursday. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Semafor “we’ll surely take a look at it,” and House Administration Committee Chairman Rep. Bryan Steil, R-Wis., said, “We’ve been working on that. I want to make sure we get the language right.” The Senate measure is an internal rules change and doesn’t require House adoption. Although it’s not clear whether many, if any, members of Congress or their staffers are actively trading on prediction markets, House proponents of a ban were heartened. “I think this will push leadership in the House to do the right thing and get even more Republicans inclined to support our bill,” said Rep. Nikki Budzinski, D-Ill., who’s coleading a proposed House ban.

— Nicholas Wu

War deadline exposes GOP cracks

As Trump’s war in Iran passes the 60-day mark today, a few cracks are starting to show in Republican support for the conflict. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, became the second GOP senator (after Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky.) to vote for Democrats’ Iran war powers resolution. Collins said the 60-day deadline for Congress to authorize or end US foreign conflicts under the War Powers Act is “not a suggestion; it is a requirement,” after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued Thursday that a ceasefire should pause the countdown. The administration followed up by further embracing his claim of a “terminated” military campaign for War Powers Act purposes. Collins’ party largely remains behind the president, even as the conflict drives up gas prices and voter angst at home. Meanwhile, Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to maintain control of the strait and Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.

Semafor’s Silicon Valley & The World will bridge the widening gap between the leaders building artificial intelligence and other breakthrough technologies and the leaders responsible for shaping the strategies, policies, and institutions around them.

Co-Chaired by Divesh Makan, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Ruth Porat, and Lisa Su, this new initiative will bring together top technology CEOs, senior government officials, and global financial leaders in Silicon Valley in November.

Building on the success of the 2026 annual convening of Semafor World Economy, Semafor’s Silicon Valley & The World will be the definitive forum to connect builders of transformative technologies with the global institutional leaders shaping their consequences. Through Semafor’s signature live journalism, the initiative will examine the forces now sitting at the center of global leadership: artificial intelligence, national competitiveness, energy demand, capital formation, security, labor markets, and the shifting relationship between technological power and public authority.

View: America’s Iraq failure haunts Iran war

The failure of US policy in Iraq more than two decades ago is haunting Trump’s war. Iran began to build influence inside Iraq in 2003, and today militias there have rallied to Tehran’s defense, launching attacks on Gulf states. Iraq is a deeply divided, dysfunctional democracy with a weak, corrupt central government, dependent almost entirely on hydrocarbon exports — problems that trace back to mismanagement during the post-Saddam order. The scale of the damage has led many in the Middle East to conclude that it must have been deliberate. Confronted with this view years ago, Paul Krugman replied along the lines of: “I know these guys. They’re not that smart.” After covering the region for decades, I’ve concluded: We tend to underestimate how little US policymakers understand the Arab world. The region is left to pick up the pieces.

Trump to shop senior tax breaks in Florida

Trump will make a pit stop at a charter school in The Villages, Fla., this afternoon to tout the Republicans’ party-line tax-and-spending bill he signed last year ahead of the November midterms. As he faces rising economic anxiety among voters, the president will focus his remarks on the legislation’s tax break for seniors, which is available through the end of 2028, White House spokesperson Liz Huston told Semafor. He’ll then give another speech tonight at the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches for its annual dinner in West Palm Beach, Fla. His trip to Florida comes after the state legislature approved Republicans’ plan to redraw the state’s congressional districts so their party winds up with as many as four new seats, which would give the GOP an edge in this year’s fight to control the House.

— Eleanor Mueller

Debatable: Trump’s White House ballroom

An alleged gunman’s attack on last week’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner gave Republicans a new security-focused pitch for Trump’s ballroom. They argued that the episode showed the need for a large, secure space at the White House to protect Trump and future presidents. But there are real divides over whether the ballroom could even hold an event of that size. And Republicans who support the ballroom can’t agree on whether private or taxpayer funds should be used to pay for it. “Private donations can be used, but I think they should be used for buying china and stuff like that,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., whose bill would authorize $400 million for the project. But Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., told Semafor’s Morgan Chalfant that the fact that Trump has raised private funds for it is “a gift to the taxpayers and the country.”

He went from selling his own plasma to running a YouTube channel with more than 7 million subscribers. Johnny Harris, YouTube creator and Newpress co-founder, joins this week’s Mixed Signals to talk about how he built a sustainable business around difficult topics without chasing the outrage that drives so much attention online, and why millions of people are obsessed with long-form video explainers.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “He didn’t even bring this to the floor for a debate. He keeps throwing up excuse after excuse,” Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, said after Senate Majority Leader John Thune rejected a version of the House’s FISA extension bill that included a ban on a central bank digital currency. “Anyone can find an excuse. Leaders find a way. And it’s time for John Thune to do that or step aside.”

Playbook: “We’ve gotten over-analytical as a party, and sanitized and thinking about resumes,” Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., said. “None of these candidates [in upcoming Democratic races] are perfect, but I think there’s an expectation by voters today that if you seem perfect, you’re probably hiding something.”

Axios: Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is urging Washington to collaborate with China on AI, breaking with the bipartisan view that frames the two countries as locked in a race to develop the technology.