Washington, DC

1. Iran war nears 60-day mark
2. Powell’s last stand
3. Housing market pessimism
4. House GOP stalemate
5. SCOTUS hears TPS case
6. Insurers’ unpopularity

PDB: Republicans defeat Cuba war powers vote

Hegseth, Caine testify before House … King Charles III in New York … Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft report earnings

Republicans are getting restless on Iran

Republicans are getting antsy as the Iran war approaches its 60-day mark on Friday, and are contemplating significant new action as President Donald Trump’s unilateral power nears its legal limits, Semafor’s Burgess Everett, Nicholas Wu and Eleanor Mueller report. Several Republicans said Congress will need to take action under the War Powers Act to allow fighting to continue; meanwhile, Trump has told aides to prepare for a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz as peace talks falter. “It’s a big deal,” said Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah. “There are a number of us having discussions about what that day means, what our response should be.” Another Senate Republican reported “sensing restlessness among many of my colleagues.” There are potential end-arounds for the administration to delay a congressional vote — either with a 30-day withdrawal or by arguing the ceasefire shouldn’t count toward the 60 days — but it’s clear Congress is losing patience.

Senate set to advance Warsh to Fed

The Senate Banking Committee will likely advance Kevin Warsh’s nomination to the Federal Reserve along party lines this morning, hours before current Chair Jerome Powell holds what’s expected to be his last press conference. Just one Democrat has so far said they’ll support Warsh, whom the Senate confirmed by voice vote two decades ago: Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. Fed watchers told Semafor the partisan votes may make it harder for Warsh to get reconfirmed down the road — but shouldn’t affect his ability to build lawmaker relationships or retain investors’ trust. “Partisan votes on confirmations are sort of the norm these days,” said former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker. Today’s big question is whether Powell, whose term as governor doesn’t end until 2028, will stay on beyond Warsh’s confirmation. “I see a rational basis for [Powell] sticking around,” Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said.

— Eleanor Mueller

Fewer Americans expect to buy homes

Only a quarter of Americans who don’t own homes expect to buy one in the next five years, a low point since Gallup started asking the question more than a decade ago. Just 28% expect to buy a home within 10 years, while 45% don’t see themselves buying a home in the foreseeable future. The poll, conducted at the beginning of April, adds to a picture of economic gloom in the US, as Americans worry about the affordability of gas and other necessities and express pessimism about the job market. While the White House celebrated a decline in mortgage interest rates earlier this year, the Iran war has since complicated the picture. Now, 67% of Americans say it’s a bad time to buy a house. Notably, 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say so — a majority — as well as 76% of Democrats.

House GOP stalls out on agenda

Problems are piling up for House Republicans as conservatives threaten to tank the rule setting up their entire legislative agenda this week. The House already yanked scheduled votes Tuesday evening, and now the renewal of foreign surveillance powers under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the farm bill, and the budget blueprint to fund ICE and CBP are all threatened by the hardliners’ protest. Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., wrote on social media that she is “a NO on the Rule,” while Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., also signaled opposition. There’s also lingering skepticism among House conservatives over the scope of the budget blueprint approved by the Senate that could imperil its chances on the House floor. The surveillance authority expires tomorrow, and the Trump administration has warned it can’t pay DHS workers under executive order past this week.

— Nicholas Wu

Supreme Court weighs migrants’ fate

The Supreme Court will consider the Trump administration’s effort to dramatically scale back the Temporary Protected Status program, which offers safe haven in the US to migrants whose home countries are ravaged by natural disasters or war. The case specifically concerns the 350,000 Haitians and more than 6,000 Syrians with TPS, per The New York Times, but could affect some 1.3 million people with temporary protections. The high court has weighed in on the issue before, allowing the Department of Homeland Security to revoke TPS for 300,000 Venezuelans last year. The Trump administration has terminated TPS designations for most countries that had them when Trump took office, as part of a broader push to curb legal and illegal migration. Trump lost a separate immigration legal fight Tuesday, as an appeals court ruled against ICE’s mandatory detention policy.

Bashing insurers could boost candidates

Want to win an election? It might help to bash insurance companies, according to new research from a leading GOP firm shared first with Semafor. Voters increasingly see insurance companies as the primary bogeymen for healthcare costs, according to new polling from OnMessage Inc., which finds these firms are viewed unfavorably by 78% of voters. A memo breaking down the research says that voters “will reward candidates willing to hold them in check.” In the poll, 60% of respondents said Congress should focus on the insurance industry compared to other healthcare cost drivers. Wes Anderson, a founding partner of OnMessage, said voters’ concerns over insurance companies have “boomed,” as healthcare costs rank just behind gas and groceries on consumers’ minds. “Millions of voters believe their out-of-pocket health insurance costs have become unbearable and something has to change,” Anderson said.

— Burgess Everett

Blindspot: UnitedHealthcare and Hegseth

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: UnitedHealthcare fired an employee who expressed regret on social media that President Trump hadn’t been shot at Saturday’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

What the Right isn’t reading: Republicans are losing confidence in Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, The Hill reported. 

Most CEOs have not woken up to the fact that technology is as important as their balance sheet, IBM Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna says in the latest episode of The CEO Signal. The first technologist to lead the company in its 115-year history unpacks how he approaches high-stakes decision-making in moments of rapid technological change — including the initially controversial acquisition of Red Hat that he thinks landed him his current role.

Krishna makes the case for why CEOs need to place bold bets, even when the payoff won’t be quick. And he cautions his fellow CEOs not to wait to start working out what quantum computing will mean for their companies. “You’d better start thinking about it now,” he says.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Reps. Josh Gottheimer, D-N.J., and Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., have introduced a bipartisan resolution condemning commentators Hasan Piker and Candace Owens over what they say is “antisemitic hate-filled rhetoric.”

Playbook: “Pete Hegseth’s got a lot to answer to from this disastrous war,” Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., said of the defense secretary’s long-awaited public appearance on the Hill this morning. “How much is this costing? What’s the end game?”

Axios: President Trump met with oil and gas executives at the White House yesterday to game out how various Iran war scenarios would affect energy markets; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were also in attendance, sources said.

Congress

• Senate Republicans defeated a Democrat-sponsored resolution that would block President Trump from going to war with Cuba without seeking congressional authorization.
• Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., questioned why $400 million in Ukraine aid approved by Congress is “collecting dust at the Pentagon.” — WaPo

Outside the Beltway

• Former Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., is spending his final days “repudiating his party’s left flank.” — Politico
• Florida Republicans advanced Gov. Ron DeSantis’ gerrymandered redistricting map, but even some in the GOP declined to vote for it.
• The Pentagon wants Congress to make official changing its name to the Department of War, which has already cost the government $50 million. — Inside Defense

Campaigns

• Six Democrats and two Republicans traded attacks at a chaotic California gubernatorial debate.

Business

• Americans are reconsidering their summer travel plans due to effects from the Iran war. — NYT
• The US government ended a probe into claims that Meta “can access encrypted WhatsApp messages.” — Bloomberg

Courts

• Today’s Supreme Court oral arguments could get personal for Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who adopted two children from Haiti