Washington, DC

1. Warsh nomination stalemate
2. War sparks recession fears
3. Virginia redistricting vote
4. Michigan Senate frustrations
5. Dems’ Israel divisions
6. Congress’ approval dips
7. Low US-China expectations

PDB: SCOTUS hears case on green card holders’ rights

Bessent, Greer testify on Capitol Hill … Tesla reports earnings … Lagarde speaks

Warsh hearing puts onus back on Trump

With Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh’s hearing behind them, Senate Republicans are back to hoping they can nudge President Donald Trump into a compromise, Semafor’s Eleanor Mueller reports. The Trump administration had posited the hearing might spur Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., to drop his opposition. But the retiring Republican didn’t ask Warsh a single question yesterday, instead using his time to reiterate why he’s still planning to stop the nomination from advancing unless US Attorney Jeanine Pirro abandons her Trump-backed investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Now, Tillis and others are rooting for an off-ramp by way of the Senate Banking Committee. “Get [the investigation] out of where it’s at right now, and get the criminal stuff behind us, and then let’s see if we can’t help the president get his person,” Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said.

Stalled Iran talks spark recession fears

Prospects for US-Iran peace talks remained murky, while fears of a global recession rose over the ongoing chokehold on oil supplies. Three ships were hit by gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz Wednesday, Reuters reported, a day after Trump extended a two-week ceasefire indefinitely but kept the blockade of the strategic waterway in place. The president is willing to allow “another three to five days of ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their sh*t together,” Axios reported a US source briefed on the matter as saying. Oil traders said the war had already hit demand and that the ongoing closure of the strait could trigger a worldwide recession, with one oil boss saying the shock was the worst in his 40-year career. However, a leading economist warned against “apocalyptic talk,” saying the disruption was small compared to the pandemic.

Dems see broader path to House majority

Democrats now have a wider path to a House majority this fall after Virginia voters approved new congressional maps on Tuesday that demolish four Republican districts. Landslide “yes” margins in the DC and Richmond suburbs overwhelmed a strong rural vote against the redistricting amendment, which will swap a fairly balanced map created by the state Supreme Court with one that gives Democrats the advantage in 10 of 11 House seats. Virginia Republicans made the race close, getting some last-minute help from conservative donors after polls showed the “no” vote trailing narrowly. But Gov. Abigail Spanberger campaigned for “yes” over the weekend, after Democrats updated a playbook that won them a similar vote in California last year: endorsements from prominent party figures like Barack Obama, and a pinkie swear that a nonpartisan commission would draw new maps when Trump left office.

— David Weigel

El-Sayed’s rise riles the Democratic middle

The rise of Bernie Sanders’ preferred Senate candidate in Michigan is frustrating moderates, delighting progressives, and testing the sway of Democratic leaders in a race that will likely determine the party’s shot at a Senate majority, Semafor’s Burgess Everett, David Weigel, and Nicholas Wu report. Abdul El-Sayed is gaining momentum in a three-way Democratic primary with an uncompromising argument for clarity on progressive priorities. The nomination is up for grabs among him, Rep. Haley Stevens, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, but El-Sayed is catching on with the base and just had his best poll. Some Democrats are sweating the prospect that the progressive prevails in August, only to get hammered by Republican Mike Rogers as too far left for a swing state. “Of course,” one Democratic senator said when asked whether the party worries about El-Sayed losing in November. “Elissa Slotkin won by 19,000 votes against the same opponent.”

Barrasso says Sanders leads Dems on Israel

Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso encouraged Republicans at a party meeting yesterday to keep up pressure on Democrats over Israel after their recent turn against arms sales, according to a person briefed on the presentation. The Wyoming Republican recounted to Senate Republicans that in the past 12 months Democrats have gone from 15 of their members voting to block arm sales, to 27 Democrats voting to stop the sales, to 40, last week. The No. 2 Republican argued that Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is now Democrats’ standard-bearer on the issue — and that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is isolated, with just a handful of colleagues agreeing with him. Schumer said on Tuesday that his “caucus is united and focused on ending the war in Iran.” Democrats will force a vote on Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s resolution today.

— Burgess Everett

Americans give Congress thumbs down

The share of Americans who disapprove of the job that Congress is doing stands at an all-time high as the partial government shutdown drags on, according to new polling from Gallup. Eighty-six percent of US adults disapprove of Congress — tied with the record high notched since Gallup started asking the question more than 50 years ago — while only 10% approve. Notably, Republicans are largely driving the most recent dip in approval of the GOP-controlled Congress, according to the poll, which was conducted during the first half of April. Just one in five Americans who identify as Republicans approve of Congress, down from 63% in March 2025. It’s a clear sign that Trump isn’t the only one struggling in the polls, as Republicans look to hold onto control of Washington in the looming midterms.

The next US-China battle

With only a month to go before Trump’s visit to China — the first by an American leader in a decade — there’s little sign he’ll get the trade deal he so badly craves. The mood of top White House policymakers responsible for negotiating summit outcomes seems subdued. So far, they report nothing more exciting than establishing a “Board of Trade” and a “Board of Investment” staffed by officials from both countries to solidify a tariff truce forged last year. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer acknowledged at Semafor World Economy last week that managed trade was the best Washington could hope for, given that Chinese leaders were “not going to put their hand on Mao’s Little Red Book and swear that, ‘We’re not going to be communists.’” Indeed, the lead-up to next month’s Trump-Xi summit points to more, rather than less, tension on the horizon.

Blindspot: ActBlue and Clinton

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a state lawsuit against the Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue.

What the Right isn’t reading: Chelsea Clinton ran the Boston Marathon.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “I told Mike Johnson in July of last year that, ‘If you go down this road, it’s not going to work out for you,’” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said of the Republicans’ redistricting wars.

Axios: A US official said that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is hardly communicating and the nation’s IRGC generals now have control of the country: “We saw that there is an absolute fracture inside Iran between the negotiators and the military — with neither side having access to the supreme leader, who is not responsive.”

Playbook: LGBTQ+ dating app Grindr has expanded its political presence in Washington, spending $1.6 million on an influence operation across a range of policy areas since registering to lobby federal lawmakers a year ago.

White House

• President Trump’s approval rating on the economy dipped to 30% in April, down from 38% last month, according to a new AP-NORC poll.
• Trump’s ballroom fundraising contract allows “wealthy donors with business before the federal government to contribute anonymously to a sitting president’s pet project, while exempting the White House from key conflict of interest safeguards and limiting scrutiny by Congress and the public.” — WaPo

Congress

• Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker, R-Miss., pushed back on the Trump administration’s recent criticism of NATO allies, saying it “is not helpful when American leaders speak of our alliances with derision.”
• Eleven Senate Democrats demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on his actions in the Iran war, arguing he has violated international laws on multiple occasions.

Outside the Beltway

• Termed-out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is “begging” the Trump administration for a job. — Axios

Business