Washington, DC

1. Predictable Cabinet exit
2. Warsh testifies
3. Vance to Pakistan
4. VA weighs redistricting
5. Expulsion vote expected
6. FCC vs. telecom giants
7. Trump’s defenders
8. Apple shakeup

PDB: USMCA talks set for next month

Trump on Squawk Box … US releases retail sales … United Airlines posts earnings

Chavez-DeRemer’s unsurprising departure

President Donald Trump’s third woman Cabinet member to depart in seven weeks, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, is perhaps the most obvious exit — and one that elected Republicans openly welcomed. Chavez-DeRemer faced a probe from her department’s independent watchdog into a long list of allegations of professional misconduct. The claims, which she denies, had long driven internal whispers about her future in the administration; some aides and people close to the White House were already wondering how she’d survived as long as she had. Multiple sources told Semafor they saw a simple reason for that: her loyalty to Trump. “We should have probably teased through the managerial, the executive-level experiences, some of these roles need for people to be successful,” said Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., who added that he suspects she exited “because the allegations are true.”

— Shelby Talcott and Eleanor Mueller

Powell probe looms over Warsh hearing

Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh will answer to senators this morning on his financial disclosures, his rate-cut argument, his balance-sheet plans — and the Justice Department’s probe of current Chair Jerome Powell. Warsh is in line to inherit a central bank “in need of repair and confronting serious uncertainty,” Sen. Dave McCormick, R-Pa., will say in his introduction. Expect Democrats to drill down on the latter — specifically, “Warsh’s views of the investigation,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said. In his own opening statement, Warsh will argue that “Fed independence is largely up to the Fed.” But nothing he says will sway Tillis, who’s pledged to stop Warsh’s nomination from advancing until DOJ gives up: “The only thing he could tell me … that would change my opinion … is that he just saw the news report that the investigation has been dropped,” Tillis said. “Ultimately he will be confirmed … I just don’t know what decade,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.

— Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett

Doubts as Vance leads Iran talks

Vice President JD Vance is headed to Pakistan for talks with Iran as Trump’s ceasefire deadline approaches. The stakes are high, but expectations are low, with Tehran and Washington at an impasse over traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Trump told Bloomberg he’s unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire, even as he gave Iran 24 hours longer by pushing his deadline to tomorrow evening. That will put pressure on both sides to reach a deal, though Trump could pull back on his threat like he did two weeks ago, when he declined to follow through on threats to bomb Iranian civilian infrastructure. Markets don’t seem overly optimistic: Oil prices rose and stocks fell on Monday, suggesting doubts about the way forward.

VA Dems hope for gerrymandering win

Virginia voters could approve a gerrymandered congressional map today that replaces four Republican-held House seats with districts favoring Democrats. Republicans have been outspent in their attempt to beat the redistricting amendment, though they rallied as early voting showed high interest in the red, rural areas that will be drawn into blue suburbs if the new map is approved. “Virginia is a purple state and Republicans have spent tens of millions of dollars to lie to the people,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters yesterday, after a weekend during which both parties fanned out to drive up turnout. None of the polls have shown the “yes” vote losing, but they suggest independents who backed Gov. Abigail Spanberger last year are skeptical of the argument that changing the congressional map is necessary to stop a Trump power grab — the message of the Democrats’ campaign.

— David Weigel

Cherfilus-McCormick expulsion?

The House Ethics Committee will wrap up its investigation into Florida Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s alleged theft of $5 million in FEMA funds this afternoon by recommending a punishment. Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., is expected to call up a motion to expel Cherfilus-McCormick from the House soon after the punishment is unveiled, and the chamber is likely to hit the two-thirds majority required to oust her. Her political support in the chamber has largely evaporated as the case has ground on, and she raised just $10,705.20 last quarter, according to FEC filings. A memo submitted to the panel by its lawyers noted that Cherfilus-McCormick’s “conduct also sets her apart from any prior Member due to the sheer volume of funds involved, totaling in the millions.” Hers might not be the only expulsion vote this week: Some Democrats have threatened to trigger a vote against Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., who faces his own ethics investigation, too, though Jeffries told reporters he wanted to wait for the ethics panel to “report out what’s going on in terms of the investigation” before acting on Mills. Cherfilus-McCormick’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

— Nicholas Wu

Trump admin vs. AT&T, Verizon

The Supreme Court will consider today whether to shrink the FCC’s ability to punish regulatory violations when the justices hear a case between the agency and AT&T and Verizon. The telecom giants argue that the FCC’s in-house determination that AT&T and Verizon broke consumer privacy rules — and should face fines of $57 million and $47 million, respectively — go against the companies’ constitutional right to a jury trial. A ruling in favor of the companies could significantly constrain how agencies address regulatory violations, with one expert telling Roll Call that agencies “will wind up doing a lot less than we as a society expected them to do over the last 20-30 years.” It would also expand on a 2024 ruling, split along ideological lines, in which the high court restricted the SEC’s use of in-house tribunals to punish securities fraud.

Former Trump aides defend his policies

Trump is making inroads to reshaping US foreign and trade policy to Washington’s advantage, two of his former aides argued in Foreign Affairs. The White House’s approach of pulling America back from its long-held role as the world’s policeman to instead focus on key geopolitical battlegrounds is paying off, an ex-assistant secretary of state wrote. “The war it launched with Iran in February could advance consolidation if it remains narrowly scoped, but it could undermine the strategy if it becomes protracted,” he acknowledged. A former US trade representative, meanwhile, said Washington’s use of tariffs represented a first step towards a “larger, more ambitious goal: replacing a defunct old trading system… with a new one built on the principles of balance, transparency, and sovereignty.”

View / Apple’s safe choice

Apple’s choice of John Ternus to replace CEO Tim Cook signals the company plans to stay its cautious and lucrative course even as AI reshapes the industry it has dominated for 20 years. Cook’s appointment to replace Steve Jobs in 2011 was a monumental moment in business, technology and American culture. Then, Apple was at the height of its influence, but nobody knew just how far its products could go in terms of profits. Under Cook’s leadership, Apple became the first public company to reach $1 trillion by market cap. As he steps down, Apple is still a financial juggernaut, but its cultural significance has waned. The choice of Ternus, an Apple-lifer from the Jobs era, shows the company is not about to roll the dice on someone who might squander its lucrative business — or take it in a radical new direction.

Colossal — the divisive startup that brought back Tom Brady’s dead dog and which wants to revive the woolly mammoth — has big goals, and almost none of them have to do with consumers. On this week’s episode of Compound Interest, presented by Amazon Business, Liz and Rohan talk with Colossal’s Ben Lamm about building a bioscience empire serving governments — from drought-resistant crops to plastic-eating microbes, and much more (some of it classified!).

Blindspot: National Guard and Israel

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Phil Mendelson, who chairs the DC Council, told The Associated Press the National Guard deployment in Washington is costing taxpayers $1 million each day, just “to have them walk around.”

What the Right isn’t reading: Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., accused Democrats of continuing “to abandon Israel” during an appearance on Fox News.