Go fetch the Senate’s “SMOKIN’ HOT” apron because they’re about to start grilling in there. Today, lawmakers are set to question Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh in a confirmation hearing that carries exceptional weight amid both geopolitical tensions and President Trump’s feud with current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Expected topics include: Warsh’s takes on monetary policy (e.g., how the Fed handles inflation, the labor market, and interest rates), Fed independence (the hottest-button issue), and Warsh’s own finances. Warsh has strongly argued in favor of rate cuts, saying the Fed would “have to make a bet” on expected productivity gains from AI, though Fed officials are reportedly skeptical of that reasoning. But he could change his tune today—it’ll be Warsh’s first comment on interest rates since the war in Iran spiked oil prices, potentially undermining the case for cuts. Possible pain points Warsh will likely be asked how he’d handle pressure from Trump, and for his opinion on Trump’s pursuits of Powell and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Democrats may mention that Warsh started calling for rate cuts once Trump returned to office in 2025, after previously gaining a reputation as a supporter of high interest rates. Warsh’s planned opening remarks, released yesterday, may shed light on his Fed independence responses: - “I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates,” his statement said.
- He also wrote that “Fed independence is placed at greatest risk when it strays into fiscal and social policies,” referencing times when the Fed took interest in climate change risks and racial inequity.
Meanwhile…Senate Democrats hope to rally “nay” votes in part by zeroing in on Warsh’s financial disclosures of $100+ million in assets, which they say don’t meet transparency standards, the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. There’s also a game of chicken afoot: Republican Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the DOJ ends its investigation into Powell, but Trump hasn’t indicated any willingness to drop the unpopular probe. Powell has said he’ll continue to lead if a new chair is not installed by the time his term in the top job ends in May.—ML |