Washington, DC

1. Vance’s foreign policy woes
2. Orbán defeat is EU win
3. Oil sanctions retreat
4. Swalwell faces expulsion vote
5. US politics’ paradox
6. DHS game plan
7. Pilots detained in Africa
8. Schumer staff shakeup

PDB: American workers increasingly using AI

Semafor World Economy kicks off … Trump lashes out at the Pope … Senate returns; House back tomorrow

Vance faces foreign policy struggles

President Donald Trump’s administration faces setbacks on the world stage, after efforts by Vice President JD Vance to prop up Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán fell short. Orbán’s electoral defeat came a week after Vance’s Budapest trip — and less than a day after Vance and top Trump officials returned from Islamabad without a peace deal, following 21 hours of talks with Iran. A US official told Semafor that not all the Trump administration’s red lines were agreed upon; they include an end to all uranium enrichment and fully opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump responded to the failed talks by announcing a US blockade of the strait, set to take effect at 10 am today, in an effort to prevent Iran from controlling the area. US allies declined to join the blockade, while Iran called it “illegal” and issued a threat to ports in the Gulf.

— Shelby Talcott

Europe welcomes Orbán defeat

Opposition leader Péter Magyar’s victory in Hungary is as much a win for the EU as a loss for Orbán and his allies. Magyar has pledged to repair ties with the European Union and reverse Russia-friendly Orbán’s hostility towards Ukraine. When he ended Orbán’s 16-year rule on Sunday, European leaders were quick to rejoice. “Hungary has chosen Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote. Added French President Emmanuel Macron: “Let us move forward together towards a more sovereign Europe, for the security of our continent, our competitiveness, and our democracy.” European leaders may feel more emboldened now to stand up to Trump as he challenges NATO. Still, Orbán loyalists remain entrenched in many Hungarian institutions, and Slovak leader Robert Fico vowed to continue his anti-Europe push even without Orbán as his partner.

Trump admin backs off oil sanctions relief

The Treasury Department unexpectedly allowed its waiver of sanctions on Russian oil to lapse over the weekend, boosting odds it does the same with a waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil that expires Sunday. Former sanctions officials had for weeks anticipated an extension, which Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly agreed Thursday would be a good idea. Asian countries including the Philippines had been pushing for a renewal, with India reportedly expecting one. But as the US and Iran huddled in Pakistan, it never came. Critics from Senate Democrats to The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board had argued the waiver boosted the Kremlin’s bottom line while doing little to pad global supply. Oil prices rose back above $100 Monday, as expected given the US blockade, while the president acknowledged to Fox News Sunday that gas prices could wind up “a little bit higher” before the midterms.

— Eleanor Mueller

What’s next for Swalwell in the House

Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., faces a vote to expel him from the House this week over sexual assault allegations, and he won’t be alone in the hot seat. Democrats are expected to offer a resolution to expel Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-Texas, who admitted to an affair with an ex-staffer who later died by suicide. Lawmakers in both parties have said they support ousting both of their embattled colleagues: among them are Reps. Teresa Leger Fernandez, D-N.M., chair of the House Democratic Women’s Caucus, and Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla. Still, expelling a House member requires a two-thirds majority vote, which may prove a high bar to clear. Swalwell’s office did not respond to a request for comment. He’s already suspended his California gubernatorial campaign after it imploded following sexual assault and misconduct allegations shared by multiple women; more than 50 former staffers demanded he resign.

— Nicholas Wu

Over the next five days, more than 500 CEOs and government leaders — including US Cabinet secretaries, central bank governors, finance ministers, and Fortune 500 executives — will take the stage for on-the-record conversations about the forces shaping the global economy.

Our first sessions begin today, with discussions on Building Intelligent Enterprises, The Economics of Infrastructure, and Rethinking Global Business. Across the week, we’ll host 21 sessions on the global economy, infrastructure, technology, AI, finance, energy, and much more — you can view the full agenda here.

All sessions throughout the week will be livestreamed on Semafor’s homepage — watch here.

Politics and the new world economy

In 1980, Ronald Reagan defined the basic test of late 20th-century politics. Voters, he said, should choose between candidates based on the question, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” Today, the predictive power of that question has flipped. The party you vote for is indicative of how you feel about the economy. Polling by Semafor’s partners at Gallup showed Republicans’ confidence in the US economy improving 65 points on a 200-point scale in the week after the 2016 election; Democrats’ outlook rose 81 points after Joe Biden’s inauguration in 2021; and the partisan pattern appeared again in 2024. Meanwhile, empirical economic measures have broadly failed to predict citizens’ feelings about wages, jobs, and well-being. We’re convening CEOs and US leaders this week to grapple with that paradox: Our politics are polarized and ruinous, and our economy is the envy of the world.

GOP immigration bill shapes up

Senate Republicans are racing to move an immigration enforcement spending bill, aiming to pass a budget resolution this month to unlock the party-line reconciliation spending powers to pass it. Ultimately, Republicans want to give Trump three years of funding for immigration enforcement and are working on a targeted proposal for Trump to sign in May. The Senate’s DHS bill exempted ICE and CBP’s border security operations funding, which were on track to receive about $10 billion and more than $6 billion, respectively, under current spending levels. Three years of funding for those agencies would come out to about $50 billion in total. The final number could be larger but is expected to be well under $100 billion. If Republicans can get their bill moving, it might unstick the other partial DHS funding bill languishing in the House — and end the 58-day shutdown.

— Burgess Everett

Schumer spokesman leaves for Salesforce

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s communications director, Alex Nguyen, is departing Schumer’s office after nearly seven years working for the New York Democrat — including more than three years as his communications director, one of the most rigorous jobs in politics. Nguyen is headed to the private sector, joining Salesforce as a director on their corporate communications team. Ally Biasotti, who has worked in Schumer’s press shop for more than a decade, will take over as Schumer’s communications director at a crucial moment for the Democratic leader, as he tries to wrest back control of the Senate majority.

— Burgess Everett

Detained US pilot’s harsh words for Trump

One of two American pilots detained in West Africa alleges that the Trump administration’s handling of his case has fallen woefully short. The State Department has taken a low-key approach to the pilots’ detention in Guinea late last year, engaging with officials in Conakry behind the scenes while saying little publicly about the case. Brad Schlenker, who has been stranded in Guinea for more than three months along with Fabio Espinal Nunez, told Semafor’s Adrian Elimian that the US government has been “useless” in helping them. “I voted for this administration because they were supposed to protect Americans,” he said. A State Department spokesperson told Semafor that US officials regularly visited the men in prison and that Washington “remains engaged on this case.” “The Trump Administration has no higher priority than the safety and security of Americans,” the State Department said.

Blindspot: Minnesota and Cuba

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Minnesota Republicans are moving forward with an effort to impeach Gov. Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, scheduling hearings for this coming week. 

What the Right isn’t reading: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel told NBC the Cuban people “would die” in order to resist a US invasion.