Good morning. Washington is calling the Iran war finished but markets and energy producers are not – more on that below, along with Toronto’s new counterterrorism unit and the next generation of space enthusiasts. But first:

• Another floor crosser puts a majority firmly in Carney’s sights
• For Persian Gulf countries, the ceasefire has meant another day of missile strikes
• The “Ketamine Queen” is sentenced to 15 years in prison for her role in Matthew Perry’s death

At the Pentagon’s first press briefing since U.S. President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth repeatedly referred to the major combat operation in the past tense. “America’s military achieved every single objective on plan, on schedule, exactly as laid out from day one,” he said yesterday morning. “Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.”

That sort of language might be a tad premature: Both sides offered competing accounts of the terms of the agreement, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the ceasefire deal did not include Lebanon. Israel then carried out its heaviest assault on the country since the start of the war, striking more than 100 targets in a 10-minute span and killing at least 254 people. Iran, which fired missiles and drones at several Gulf states yesterday, kept the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to Israel’s attacks.

But even if Tehran can be persuaded to open the vital waterway – perhaps at the peace talks meant to begin tomorrow in Pakistan – it’ll be a while before much oil flows through the Gulf region again. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said it would take months after the war ends for normal output to resume, and that fuel prices will most likely continue to rise until then. “Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we’ve never seen it reopen,” EIA administrator Tristan Abbey said on Tuesday. “What exactly that looks like remains to be seen.”

The chokepoint holds

Roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and nearly all of that traffic came to a standstill once the U.S and Israel launched their war in Iran. According to the UN, some 2,000 ships – including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers and cargo ships, along with six tourist cruise liners – have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the end of February. Whenever the waterway does reopen, it’ll be gridlock: Before the conflict, about 150 vessels passed through the narrow strait each day.

But with tankers stuck and storage facilities filled to the brim, Middle Eastern countries have been forced to curb their production of oil. Restarting operations isn’t like flipping a switch – it’s a costly and technically complex challenge that requires workers, equipment and resources to return to the region. Under the best of circumstances, the International Energy Agency estimated in early March, it would take weeks or even months for full production to resume.

And these are not the best of circumstances. Last month, Israel hit a production facility for the South Pars gas field, the crown jewel of Iran’s energy industry. Tehran quickly retaliated with multiple strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan hub, the largest liquified natural gas plant in the world. All told, 75 critical energy infrastructures across the region have been attacked, more than a third of them severely, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in an interview with Le Figaro this week. Repairs will take a long time – three to five years, in the case of Ras Laffan, provided that officials feel it’s safe for the work to begin.

Passing the buck

So, yes, oil prices tumbled more than 15 per cent after Trump’s abrupt ceasefire announcement, in the biggest one-day drop since the spring of 2020. But at around US$95, the cost of a barrel remains well above pre-war levels, and consumers are still feeling the effects of those energy hikes. Groceries are getting more expensive. The prices of phones and laptops are poised to go up. Airlines have already consolidated flights, raised baggage fees and tacked on gas surcharges – and there’s no guarantee the jet-fuel shortage will end before summer travel season begins.

Plus, it looks like we’re in for another sticker shock: Iran said it will only allow ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz if they cough up US$2-million each. Industry experts have taken to calling it the Tehran Toll Booth, and yesterday, Trump floated the idea of getting in on the scheme. “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” he told ABC News’ Jonathan Karl. “It’s a beautiful thing.”

Ten-year-old Gabriella Lamberti can fashion rocket ships out of cardboard boxes, or marshmallows and toothpicks, or plastic kits that are meant to build forts – and she’s a major fan of Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen. Read more about her space ambitions here.