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Greetings, and welcome to this week’s edition of Receipts.
In recent weeks I’ve found myself wondering if Trump has a sort of unconscious death wish for his own party. Whatever political strategists would advise a president to do in a midterm year, he’s done virtually the opposite. The foremost issue of this election, like the top issue of the last election, is affordability. Trump has not only broken promises to make life more affordable, he has raised prices, destroyed jobs, seemingly taunted anyone who complains about those choices, and flaunted his own gilded grifts. These may not be good developments for our democracy, but they are great fodder for Democratic politicians.
Is there a secret strategy here I’m missing? Is the golden age of the U.S. economy truly around the corner, and I’m just a hater? Let me know in the comments. And if you’re not already a Bulwark+ member, I hope you’ll consider joining. Your support helps us track economic developments, good or ill, and make sense of the politics around them.
You can do that right here:
Finally, join me Friday at 11:45 a.m. EDT as Sam Stein and I go live on Substack and Youtube to discuss the damage Trump’s war is doing the economy. More on that below.
–Catherine
Is Trump *Trying* to Lose the Midterms?
Between rising prices and gilded ballrooms, Trump has practically giftwrapped oppo ads for Democrats.
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I’M NOT SAYING DONALD TRUMP is trying to lose the midterms. But if he were, would he really be doing anything differently?
In recent days, the president has practically giftwrapped affordability-related oppo ads to Democrats via at least four channels:
his war, and the resultant rising costs;
his tone-deaf comments brushing off Americans’ concerns about rising prices;
his proposal for (even more) safety-net cuts; and
the gilded, marble-walled, money-making totems to Trump himself.
Any one of these things might be seen as political suicide in an election year. But all of them together, at once? It really starts to look like a deliberate plan to undermine his own party. Dems have a unique opportunity to (accurately) blame rising costs on Trump right now, and to shame him for his indifference to—at times, derision of—the pain he has caused. Will they take it?
Americans are big mad about the economy. So mad that they now miss the Biden economy, which trust me when I tell you they absolutely detested:
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While some of this Debbie-Downerism may be “bad vibes,” real economic conditions do appear to be deteriorating. New data show that in February we had the lowest level of hiring since April 2020 (i.e., when the economy was shuttered due to COVID). Wholesale prices rose sharply in February as well. And those metrics were captured before Trump decided to start a war in the Middle East, which is making everything worse.
Crude prices spiked after Trump’s confusing and incoherent speech on the Iran war last night, in which he insisted that the Strait of Hormuz “will open up naturally.” Major measures of crude oil futures prices closed Thursday around 10 percent higher, at $110 per barrel; meanwhile “spot prices” for Brent crude reached a whopping $141, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.¹
And of course the war hasn’t merely forced an oil crisis; we’re well on our way to an everything crisis, given the many supply chains disrupted by the strait’s closure.
Disruptions to fertilizer shipments and higher diesel prices are already raising food input costs. Fuel surcharges for shipments are lifting