The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has said it's monitoring the oil futures market for unusual activity after a significant trading spike occurred before US President Donald Trump postponed strikes on Iran. "I can't comment on what we're investigating or not investigating," CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller said. "All I'll just say is we're watching."

US bond traders are shifting their focus from inflation to potential economic growth risks due to rising oil prices driven by the Iran war. Investors are now pricing in possible interest rate cuts by the end of 2026, reflecting concerns about global growth. This shift has led to increased long positions in Treasury notes and a rally in government debt, supported by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's indication that the central bank may overlook rising oil prices.

Asian credit-default swaps experienced their largest single-day decline in nearly a year, dropping by at least seven basis points. This comes as market sentiment improved and risk appetite returned, reflecting optimism over potential de-escalation in the Middle East. The Markit index tracking these securities is on pace for its biggest drop since May of last year, signaling a significant shift in investor outlook for Asian credit markets.

US Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid says higher energy prices could have a lasting effect on inflation, which was near 3% before a surge in oil prices. "I don't think we can be complacent about the risks to inflation expectations," Schmid says. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."

The People's Bank of China has said it will maintain an appropriately loose monetary policy to support economic stability amid weak demand and external pressures. The PBOC pledged to keep liquidity ample and the yuan stable while guiding a recovery in prices.

The Reserve Bank of India's recent decision to curb bearish rupee positions has led to market turmoil as banks scramble to unwind at least $30 billion in arbitrage trades by the April 10 deadline. The move, one of the boldest in over a decade, aims to rein in currency speculation amid pressures from high oil prices and capital outflows. Banks have requested an extension, but the RBI has yet to respond.

Private equity-backed companies borrowed $94 billion in 2025 to finance dividend payouts, as firms turned to debt amid a slowdown in exits and IPO activity. Moody's warned the trend raises credit risks by increasing leverage without improving earnings, particularly in sectors like software and business services.

US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Enforcement Director David Miller said the agency will crack down on insider trading in prediction markets, rejecting claims that such rules do not apply to the sector. The warning comes as rapid growth and thin liquidity raise concerns about misuse of nonpublic information and market manipulation.

US Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr has emphasized the importance of the quality and liquidity of reserve assets for the long-term viability of stablecoins, noting that the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act provides some clarity for issuers but that significant work remains. "Tight control over reserve assets, coupled with supervision, capital and liquidity requirements, and other measures, could enhance the stability of stablecoins and make them more viable," Barr says.

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