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March 31, 2026
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Cyber risk tops 2026 op risk list
Cyber threats remain the top operational risk for 2026, while AI debuts at fifth place as firms grapple with governance gaps, opaque models and new failure risks. Third-party exposure climbs to third amid cloud and supply-chain vulnerabilities, with AI seen amplifying cyber threats and expanding risk beyond traditional control frameworks.
Full Story: Risk (subscription required) (3/30)
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Treasury examining growing risks in private credit market
The Treasury Department is preparing to launch a series of meetings with both domestic and international insurance regulators this year. These consultations are intended to gather insights and foster collaboration regarding recent developments in the private credit market, particularly as its connections with regulated financial institutions increase.
Full Story: Reuters (3/30)
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Study links $143M from Polymarket bets to suspicious trades
A study by Columbia Law School and the University of Haifa found that insiders might have made about $143 million on Polymarket using nonpublic information. By analyzing the blockchain ledger, analysts identified dozens of wallets placing large, well-timed bets on geopolitical events, particularly concerning the US and Venezuela. These accounts, often newly created and coordinated, funneled winnings to a single Coinbase address.
Full Story: Bloomberg (3/29), Reuters (3/29)
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Bloomberg Insights
 
Wall Street eyes slow market decline amid Iran conflict
Wall Street strategists are promoting trades that benefit from a gradual market decline as the Iran war enters its fifth week. BBVA and JPMorgan Chase are recommending Euro Stoxx 50 put spreads and OTC volatility knockout puts, respectively. Although U.S. indexes have remained relatively stable, potential inflation and trade disruption could lead to a more significant sell-off.
Full Story: Bloomberg (3/29)
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SEC urged to explain enforcement director's sudden exit
US Sens. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have asked Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins to explain the recent resignation of Margaret "Meg" Ryan as the SEC's enforcement director, as well as whether it is connected to cryptocurrency cases involving the Trump family. The SEC has paused or dismissed at least 12 cases against crypto companies since Trump returned to the White House, including lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.
Full Story: Bloomberg (3/30)
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Trading Trends
 
Government bonds rally globally as Iran war continues
Global government bonds have staged a strong rally in early 2026, as rising concerns about a potential economic slowdown due to the war in Iran have boosted demand for sovereign debt. Investors are increasingly seeking safety, pivoting away from riskier assets after weeks of selloffs that followed inflation and interest rate fears. Key markets such as US, Australia, and Japan have seen notable gains in their government bonds, reflecting a broader trend of risk aversion and anticipation of weaker global growth.
Full Story: Bloomberg (3/30)
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JPMorgan, Pimco: Bond markets underestimating war risk
Bond-fund managers at firms such as Pacific Investment Management and JPMorgan Chase say the impact of the US war in Iran on the US economy is being underestimated. While traders focus on inflation driven by surging oil prices, the managers say the conflict could significantly slow economic growth and possibly lead to a recession.
Full Story: Bloomberg (3/29)
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Foreign central banks cut US Treasurys amid Iran war
Financial Times (3/31)
 
 
Prediction markets hit $20B in trading volume in Jan.
Futures & Options World (3/30)
 
 
Banks see opening to regain market share as private credit struggles
CNBC (3/27)
 
 
Distressed-debt investors see opportunity in private credit
Financial Times (3/29)
 
 
 
 
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Operational Efficiencies
 
Study: Russia's SWIFT alternative shows its limits
A recent study indicates that Russia's development of the System for Transfer of Financial Messages as an alternative to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication has not fully mitigated the impact of sanctions. Although Russian exports remained high post-SWIFT exclusion, this was largely due to favorable oil prices rather than the effectiveness of SPFS, according to the study.
Full Story: The Conversation (3/29)