Washington, DC

1. Dem decision time on DHS
2. More oil price spikes
3. Gulf countries’ dilemma
4. Another Fetterman challenger?
5. Opportunity in rubble

US jet fuel ▲ 61% since the start of the Iran war.

Schumer sees DHS deal, but drives hard bargain

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer sees the potential for a deal to reopen the Department of Homeland Security, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. But Schumer holds significant leverage, and he’s pushing for as many concessions on President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement as he can get. “They sent us an offer, and we’ll be sending them an offer back. And I can assure you it will contain significant reform in it,” Schumer said on Tuesday afternoon. Some conservatives are turning on the two-track DHS deal: funding most of the department with Democratic votes and leaving more enforcement funding and portions of the GOP’s voter ID law for a party-line spending bill. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, said the latter is “essentially impossible,” and the House Freedom Caucus called it “failure theater.” Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said another reconciliation bill is going to be “hard to do.”

Another deadline looms on oil prices

Trump is up against another deadline: The grace period for the Strait of Hormuz is running out. The price spikes in oil and gas so far have been based on vibes, not disruptions to physical supplies. That will change within the next week or so, when the last tankers to have left the Middle East before the conflict began reach their destinations. “We’re getting to the end of the point where we can tell a relatively benign story,” S&P Global chief economist Paul Gruenwald told Semafor. Even if the strait is reopened soon, it could take months or years for supply to rebound. In the meantime, oil prices, usually consistent worldwide, will increasingly diverge between countries with drilling operations and those without, Gruenwald said. Asia is particularly exposed. As talk of a coming supply shortage becomes a real shortage, prices will respond.

— Tim McDonnell

Gulf countries solidify ties with US

Gulf countries are standing more firmly with the United States as the war in Iran continues. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are considering joining the fight, according to Bloomberg, a possibility that will grow more likely if Iran attacks their critical infrastructure. Saudi Arabia already signaled it would allow US forces to use one of its air bases, per The Wall Street Journal, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has encouraged Trump to continue the war to decimate Iran’s government, The New York Times reported. But Gulf countries’ relations with the US are growing more complicated, too. A deal by an unpredictable Trump to end the war would leave them in a precarious position with Tehran. And while rising oil prices provide short-term benefits, the war raises “serious questions about the oil-for-security pact that underpinned Gulf-US relations for decades,” Semafor’s Matthew Martin writes.

Pennsylvania Dem considers challenging Fetterman

Former Rep. Susan Wild is the latest Pennsylvania Democrat to consider challenging Sen. John Fetterman in 2028, scoops Semafor’s Nicholas Wu — a person familiar with her thinking said she’s getting encouraged to run. It’s the latest sign of Pennsylvania Democrats’ keen interest in ousting Fetterman, who’s increasingly isolated in his party, even within his own delegation. House members from the same state are generally loath to criticize their colleagues, but frustrations with Fetterman are boiling over a full two years before a possible Senate primary. Wild isn’t the only one in the mix. Reps. Chris Deluzio and Brendan Boyle are getting floated for the seat, with Boyle telling Semafor in a statement that he isn’t ruling it out. Fetterman declined questions from a reporter on Capitol Hill, and his office did not respond to a request for comment.

Conflicts’ tricky investment opportunities

Wall Street is already thinking about the investment opportunities that could rise from the rubble of geopolitical hotspots: Iran, Venezuela, Ukraine, Gaza, and Cuba. Their markets offer enticing business opportunities across sectors, including oil, agriculture, tech, and minerals. “The smartest money runs toward investments others are too squeamish to touch,” writes Semafor Business editor Liz Hoffman. But this comes at a time of “country-first capitalism,” as countries increasingly push capital to stay home and invest domestically: a tension that will force global investors to choose between political gravity or chasing returns into the world’s most unstable markets.

This April, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the largest convening of top global CEOs and government officials in the United States — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the full lineup of speakers, including Global Advisory Board members, Fortune 500 CEOs, and top elected officials from the US and across the G20.

Energy

• Oil climbed back above $100 per barrel amid conflicting reports on Iran negotiations.

Courts

• Minnesota officials filed a federal lawsuit to access evidence they say the Trump administration has failed to share in the state’s investigation of three shootings by federal officers.
• A majority of Supreme Court justices appeared open to allowing the Trump administration to turn asylum seekers away at the border.
• A prosecutor admitted in a closed-door hearing that the Justice Department did not have evidence of criminality in the Federal Reserve’s renovation project. — WaPo

Politics

• The Republican National Committee is swamping the Democratic National Committee in fundraising, according to new filings. — CNN
• President Trump’s approval rating dropped to a new low of 36%. — Reuters

TSA Chaos

• Delta suspends its dedicated flight assistance service for members of Congress. — AJC
• Airlines are offering free change waivers to delay flights for up to a week from select airports.

Business

• Kalshi will block politicians and collegiate and professional athletes from trading in its markets. — Axios
• US robotics firms are urging the White House to draft a national robotics strategy, but it will likely remain on hold until after President Trump’s summit with China’s Xi Jinping.
• Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth is taking over efforts to expand AI adoption across the company’s workforce. — WSJ

World

• Afghanistan freed an American detainee held since January 2025.
• The Pentagon plans to deploy a brigade combat team from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to support operations in Iran. — WSJ
• Israel’s defense minister says it will control parts of southern Lebanon as it ramps up a ground offensive.

— Gregory Bovino, former commander-at-large of US Border Patrol, to The New York Times.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel