The whole world wants to know when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The fate of economies, and in many places the tenor of politics, depends on whether tankers can pass through the 100-mile-long waterway. If Donald Trump cannot make a deal with Iran to unblock the strait he may try to use force to do it. Our analysis explains just how difficult that will be.

Among the main effects of the strait’s closure will be to push up the cost of living. We ask: how high could global inflation go?