President Donald Trump has played the role of Superman in his second term, standing up to his enemies and even his allies. But the bond market remains his Kryptonite.

Trump’s shift toward diplomacy and the market’s reversal were as sudden and sharp as each other Monday. However, both appeared more fragile as the day wore on.

He revealed “productive” talks with Iran and the postponement of strikes on power plants for five days, and within minutes Dow futures surged more than 1,000 points and oil prices plunged 10%.  

One slight complication, though—both for Trump and global markets. Iran state media denied that any talks had taken place. Stocks pared gains but the S&P 500 still enjoyed its best day since early February and Brent crude closed below $100 a barrel for the first time since March 11.

If nothing else, it provided a glimpse into the market’s playbook for the end of the war—whenever that comes about. 

It may not be a coincidence that the U.S.’s change in tone came amid a bond market selloff. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to just below 4.5% before Trump’s revelation of peace talks—up around 50 basis points since the war started on Feb. 28. 

There’s a precedent. Trump delayed his sweeping global tariffs in April last year after yields surged. “The bond market is very tricky,” he said at the time.

Surging oil prices weren’t enough to bring about diplomacy—Trump said they were a “very small price to pay” for global safety and peace. A falling stock market has seldom bothered him.

As the economic, and political, fallout mounts, maybe the bond market will end up playing peacemaker. But Iran still needs to confirm talks are progressing for a full-blown rebound.

—Callum Keown

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New York’s LaGuardia Airport reopened after a fatal collision that left two Air Canada pilots dead and put U.S. Air Traffic Control back into the spotlight. It was another incident drawing attention to the nation’s air travel infrastructure after a weekend of long security checkpoint lines that dominated headlines.

• The Federal Aviation Administration is overhauling the air-traffic control system, which oversees more than 40,000 flights a day between more than 5,000 public airports. The overhaul involves billions of dollars spent on enhanced communications equipment, radar tracking, and higher staffing levels.

• Privately held Peraton won the government contract after competing for it with Parsons Corp., which bid with its subcontractor IBM. Other companies involved are RTX, L3Harris Technologies, and Leidos. RTX will provide radars, L3Harris connectivity, and Leidos automation software. Verizon is upgrading communications equipment.

• President Donald Trump made good on his pledge to send ICE agents to airports to relieve some of the strain from long security check waits, with Transportation Security Administration workers on the job without pay because of the government shutdown. Many have quit or called out sick since February.

• Lawmakers continue to fight over funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees both ICE and the TSA. Trump rejected a Republican idea to end the impasse by approving funding for all but ICE, which would be handled separately, The Wall Street Journal reported.

What’s Next: Trump wants to link a complete package of DHS funding to a bill he has championed that focuses on new voter-eligibility rules. He wants the voting bill done first, but it has stalled because of Democratic opposition. Senate leadership has said linking the two wasn’t plausible politically, the Journal reported. 

—Al Root and Liz Moyer

Energy markets aren’t adequately pricing in the oil supply shock caused by the war in Iran, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said Monday at S&P Global’s annual CERAWeek conference in Houston. Based on the amount of supply that has been taken offline through the Strait of Hormuz, on top of oil infrastructure damage, crude futures should be higher, according to Wirth.

• The futures curve for West Texas Intermediate shows expected crude prices to be about $82 per barrel in July and falling to $73 by December. The market has priced oil to remain in the $70s for most of 2027. Before the conflict, those futures were in the $50-$60s range.

• But with only a limited understanding of the war’s timeline or course, futures traders are making moves based on “any kind of perception,” Wirth said. “They are uncertain. They are unpredictable. They are volatile.”

• In the material world, however, oil shortages are already showing up. There is tightness of supply in the diesel and jet fuel markets, Wirth noted, and Asia is starting to face “real concerns” around energy supply.

• According to S&P Global Energy, between about 6.5 million and 7 million barrels of oil are currently offline in the Middle East, but that number will increase to between 8 million and 9 million barrels within several days. Some 80% of the oil that normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia.

What’s Next: Even if the war ends soon, it could take a while to restore some energy supply. Experts say it could take weeks, months, or even years in some cases to restart production. Wirth said that timeline is increasingly a concern.

—Patti Domm and Alex Kozul-Wright

Signs that the Trump administration might be moving to de-escalate the conflict in Iran shot a dose of optimism through stock markets on Monday, and some of the biggest beneficiaries were cruise operators, which depend on consumer demand and which tend to stumble when oil prices spike. 

• Cruise stocks have seen some of the sharpest declines in the S&P 500 since conflict started on Feb. 28. Norwegian Cruise Line has dropped 18.1% since then, while Carnival is down 18.8%, and Royal Caribbean 10.5%. All three notched 5% to 6% gains on Monday.

• President Trump postponed threatened attacks on Iran’s power plants for five days, saying the U.S. was having good and productive talks with Iran, signaling a possible de-escalation. Iran officials denied talks were happening. Still, crude oil prices tumbled, with Brent falling to about $100 a barrel.

• Melissa Newman, an associate professor of management at the University of Cincinnati who also runs a travel site, told Barron’s that Carnival is the most exposed to fuel costs, because it doesn’t hedge fuel purchases. Royal Caribbean hedged a significant portion of its 2026 fuel needs at lower prices.

• RBC Capital Markets’ Head of Commodity Strategy and MENA Research Helima Croft says she’s “skeptical” that a lasting deal was close at hand. The recent lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil likely reduces their near-term financial need to make sweeping concessions to Washington, she said.

What’s Next: Gene Sloan, cruise director for The Points Guy, said investors will get their first definitive read on what impact the war is having, or not having, when Carnival reports first-quarter earnings on Friday. Carnival is the parent company of nine brands including Princess, Holland America, and several European-centric brands.

—Janet H. Cho

Lawmakers made a third attempt this month aimed at cracking down on the prediction-market event contracts that mimic sports betting, with a new bill from Utah Republican Sen. John Curtis and California Democrat Sen. Adam Schiff. Investors in Flutter and DraftKings have worried about eroding market share.

• Flutter is the parent company of U.S. sports betting firm FanDuel. It along with DraftKings, Penn Entertainment, and MGM Resorts among other gambling companies, face increased competition from upstart prediction markets as sports betting spreads to more states.

• Jordan Bender, a research analyst covering gaming for Citizens, told Barron’s that banning sports prediction markets would be the “ideal outcome” for traditional sports betting and iGaming companies such as DraftKings and Flutter. DraftKings and FanDuel could not be reached for comment.

• A ban on sports prediction markets could be painful for U.S. prediction market Kalshi. Some 89% of its 2025 fee revenue was tied to sports. “It’s clear this bill is motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition,” Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said.

• Polymarket also has sports prediction markets on its U.S. platform, though the majority of trading takes place on its international exchange, where sports has a smaller share of total trading volume. Polymarket, which has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron’s, could not be reached.

What’s Next: Donald Trump Jr.’s advisory role to both Kalshi and Polymarket “introduces uncertainty,” Bender said. The president could decide to veto or decline to sign a bill banning sports prediction markets “given the significant share of revenue tied to sports for these platforms.”

—Nick Devor, Callum Keown, and Janet H. Cho

The AI-powered autonomous drone maker Ondas, a partner with Palantir Technologies, reported fourth-quarter financial results with expectations of significant growth around its business in 2026. It raised its