Washington, DC

1. Partial Iran pause
2. Post-war Iran?
3. Conflict is US ‘blunder’
4. DHS funding optimism
5. Kent saga splits Trump base
6. US worker pessimism
7. Anthropic-Pentagon fight
8. SCOTUS hears asylum case

PDB: Another war powers push

Mullin confirmed to lead DHS … Denmark holds snap elections … Hang Seng index ⬆️ 2.8%

Iran attacks to continue after pause

President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on a promised bombardment of Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure as the US leans into “productive” talks with Iranian leaders, but military operations against other targets will continue, a US official confirmed to Semafor’s Shelby Talcott. The official said the pause doesn’t apply to Iran’s “military sites and the navy, and the ballistic missiles, and the defense industrial base,” meaning the planned targeting for Operation Epic Fury that was laid out weeks ago “will continue.” And as Iran denies talking with the US, Israel will also have a say in any peace outcome; Israel is getting updates on talks, but is not currently a direct party to discussions, the official added.

Investors eye post-war Iran: Carlyle exec

Iran could be the next big global investment opportunity — if and when the war ends, Adm. James Stavridis, the former supreme allied commander of NATO who is now vice chairman at investment firm Carlyle, told Semafor’s Liz Hoffman. “If we’re allowed to have a tiny flicker of good news, we just had it,” he said after Trump announced a five-day stay of his threats to attack Iran’s electric grid, which provoked Iran to vow to strike Middle East energy and water infrastructure. Despite the ongoing military buildup in the region, Stavridis sees two-in-three odds of a negotiated peace that would reopen the oil trade and “avoid cratering the global economy.” Longer-term, he sees regime change from within, which would make Iran an enticing draw for global investors; he compared the outlook for Iran to the reconstruction of South Korea after the 1950s war.

Iran war ‘bigger strategic error’ than Iraq

Attacking Iran is a far worse blunder for the US than the Iraq war, and the consequences will be much longer lasting, a former Washington ambassador to NATO argued. The ongoing campaign has already upended the global economy, weakened some of Washington’s most important alliances, and boosted the long-term prospects of Russia and China, “and we’re only three weeks in,” Ivo Daalder, who served under former President Barack Obama, wrote in Politico. Separately, a former top US general argued that the Trump administration’s campaign will only get more difficult, as Tehran tightens its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. “If you like this war, enjoy this first part… because everything after this will be harder,” Stanley McChrystal told The New York Times.

White House, Senate GOP eye DHS deal

Senate Republicans are nearing a deal with the White House to reopen most of the Department of Homeland Security after Sens. Katie Britt, R-Ala., Steve Daines, R-Mont., Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio, visited with Trump and other administration officials Monday evening. It would likely involve a funding agreement with Democrats to reopen most of DHS, except for certain buckets of immigration enforcement. There’s a wrinkle, though: The more money in the deal for Homeland Security Investigations and Enforcement and Removal Operations, the more changes to immigration enforcement that Democrats will insist on, a Democratic senator said. Trump also wants assurances that portions of the voter ID and citizenship verification bill can move — likely in a party-line budget reconciliation bill. Still, Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins said she’s “optimistic” that DHS will be funded “by the end of the week.”

— Burgess Everett

Joe Kent continues to divide Trump base

The saga surrounding Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center who publicly resigned this month over the war in Iran, is splitting some of Trump’s staunchest — and most online — supporters. That divide is now bringing to light other leaking allegations. On Monday, Andrew Kolvet, the spokesman for the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk, confirmed that Kent is a potential source of a leak of private group text messages to Candace Owens, after a podcast claimed he had done so. Kent, as Semafor first reported, is facing an FBI investigation into allegedly disclosing classified material; White House officials accused him of leaking information shortly after he resigned. The former Trump official, who has vehemently denied the charges, did not respond to a request for comment from Semafor.

— Shelby Talcott

Americans sour on the job market

Americans are feeling more pessimistic about the job market, a worrisome signal for the White House as it navigates economic blowback from the Iran war. Only 28% have confidence in the US job market, according to new Gallup polling, down from 70% in 2022. While 72% say it’s a bad time to get a job, more than half of US workers are looking for a new or better one, or at least watching for opportunities. And more American workers say they are struggling in their lives as opposed to thriving, representing a gradual decline over the past few years. That slide has been particularly acute for the federal workforce, coinciding with the Trump administration’s purge of government workers last year. The data adds to a bleak economic picture that also includes stubborn inflation and rising energy prices, driven up by the war.

Anthropic-Pentagon feud heads to court

Anthropic faces a pivotal hearing in its fight against the Pentagon this afternoon, as a federal judge decides whether to pause the US military’s prohibition on the company’s technology. Anthropic wants an injunction stopping the Pentagon’s designation of the company as a “supply chain risk,” the result of an escalating battle over safeguards around military artificial intelligence systems. Anthropic may have an edge in part because the Trump administration’s public pronouncements could undercut the Pentagon’s case, Breaking Defense writes. Anthropic has support from Google and OpenAI employees, as well as former judges and retired military officials. The case is being heard by Rita Lin, a Biden-appointed federal judge in the Northern District of California. In the meantime, the Pentagon is adopting Palantir’s tech as its main AI system, Reuters reported.

Supreme Court weighs asylum case

The Supreme Court will consider whether to allow the Trump administration to deny entry to asylum seekers at the border as it takes up a prominent immigration case today. The justices will hear oral arguments in a dispute between the Trump administration and immigration advocates over a policy the government used to turn away asylum seekers on the Mexican side of the US-Mexico border. The Obama-era policy isn’t currently active — it was previously struck down — but the Trump administration appears keen to revive it, describing it as a “critical tool for addressing border surges and for preventing overcrowding at ports of entry along the border.” The arguments could offer more clues about Trump’s plans for cracking down further on immigration, as lawmakers on Capitol Hill fight over funding for DHS.

Blindspot: Homelessness and haze

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: New York City spent more than $80,000 last year per each unsheltered homeless person, according to city data.

What the Right isn’t reading: The Trump administration’s rollback of environmental policies could make national parks hazier.

Private equity and private credit was long a perk for the rich and well-connected. But now Wall Street’s investment giants are pitching their products to everyday Americans, who have piled in — and are now piling out in a panic. Is this democratizing finance or a recipe for disaster? On this week’s episode of Compound Interest, presented by Amazon Business, Liz and Rohan dive into that and more with Alisa Wood, the KKR executive leading the firm’s retail charge.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: The White House is set to announce this week that King Charles III will travel to Washington for a state visit in April in honor of the US’ 250th birthday; he’s expected to address a joint meeting of Congress.

Playbook: A Russian oil tanker that appears to be headed to Cuba to alleviate the pain of the US’ economic blockade is re