When Donald Trump reported “very good and productive” talks with Iran this morning, he may have been trying to calm the markets. Or he may be ready to bail out of the war—before Israel has achieved its main objectives. The president’s messaging is hardly clear (Iran denies that there have been any direct talks). But it could signal a widening divergence in American and Israeli war aims.

People in rich countries are increasingly leaving them. Some expats live it up in non-Western bits of the world, enjoying balmy weather or low taxes. But most move to somewhere else in the West. We analysed data from 31 countries to produce the first comprehensive measure of the expat economy.