Good evening. Tonight, we’ll look at what a wild, unnerving few weeks it has been in the news — and what that could mean for the midterms.
Why Republicans should worry about this chaotic moment
This weekend, President Trump seemed to veer wildly in his approach to Iran. The administration announced the deployment of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to U.S. airports. And travelers struggled with long airport security lines tied to a partial government shutdown. That would have been enough unsettling news to last us a while. But it all unfolded as part of a particularly head-spinning month. In just the last few weeks, the United States plunged into a new and deeply unpopular war in the Middle East. Gas prices skyrocketed. A synagogue was attacked in Michigan, an attack that officials said was inspired by the Islamic State unfolded near Gracie Mansion in New York City, and a shooting at Old Dominion University in Virginia is being investigated as terrorism. Oh, and measles is coming back while jobs are going away. Regardless of your partisan lean, it’s safe to say that these are scary times. Since this is an elections-focused newsletter, I wanted to understand what that backdrop of unease and anxiety meant for the Republican Party, which currently controls Washington. As my colleague Lisa Lerer reported over the weekend, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, has privately taken to summarizing his party’s line of attack against Republicans as the “three Cs” — chaos, costs and corruption. Many other ambitious Democrats are spelling out what “chaos” looks like in Americans’ daily lives and reminding them of which party is in power. “Oil prices are up,” Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois, a potential Democratic presidential candidate who is up for re-election this year, wrote on social media yesterday. “Measles is back. Farms are folding. Tariffs are raising grocery costs. Illinoisans have been sent to fight another Middle East war. Trump has been an unmitigated disaster for America.” Accusing Trump of being a chaos agent, of course, is nothing new for Democrats, and that argument works only some of the time, as Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton all learned the hard way. And anyone who has lived through the last six years (remember the pandemic?) is no stranger to the feeling that the world is spinning out of control. What may be significant here, though, is whom Americans fault for their sense of insecurity. Earlier this year, some Republicans told me that scenes of violence and brutality on American streets amid ICE raids threatened to cut into both their traditional advantage on immigration and their claim to the “party of order” mantle. And a Quinnipiac University poll released this month found that 58 percent of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy — “the highest disapproval he has ever received for his handling of the economy,” according to the pollster. “Breaking news,” snarked former Mayor Rahm Emanuel of Chicago, who led the House Democratic campaign arm when his party swept back to power in 2006 amid anger over the Iraq war. “People prefer order over disorder.” He suggested that voters would gravitate toward “the goal line of security, whether that’s economic security, personal security, political security,” and the candidates or party that seem to offer the most stability. Former Representative Steve Stivers of Ohio, a former chair of the House Republican campaign arm, stressed that there was a long way to go before November — but if this election comes down to which party makes Americans feel safer, he argued, Republicans should have an advantage. “I would bet that if this election is about security, Republicans actually hold the House,” he said. “The ‘wimp’ identity is so deeply burned into Democrats’ DNA that they are incapable of making the American public feel safe.” Of course, polling so far shows that this election is shaping up to be focused on the economy and cost of living — and history suggests that voters will also see it as a chance to render judgment on the party that controls the White House. “In previous midterm elections, the economy is usually ‘owned’ by the party in power, and it appears this year is no different,” said Neil Newhouse, a veteran Republican pollster. “An early end to the war and rapidly declining gas prices will help the G.O.P. hold their edge in both the House and Senate.” “Needless to say,” he added, “the opposite bodes well for Democrats.”
QUOTE OF THE DAY “Maybe you take one less trip to Starbucks and so that gas goes a little further.”That was Michele Tafoya, a former N.F.L. reporter who is running in the Republican primary for Senate in Minnesota. Her take reflects how Republicans are trying to tamp down Americans’ frustration with war-related cost increases in commodities like gasoline, even as Democrats aim to capitalize. My colleague Tim Balk has more. Got a tip?
The Supreme Court could limit late-arriving mail ballotsDuring arguments today, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority appeared poised to reject Mississippi’s mail-in ballot law, which allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received within five business days after the election. The outcome of the case, my colleague Abbie VanSickle writes, could have sweeping consequences for voters in the midterm elections, potentially creating chaos among states that allow mail-in balloting.
ONE LAST THING Pritzker’s stand-up routineJB’s got jokes. The Illinois governor brought a bunch of them this weekend to Washington, where he addressed the annual Gridiron Club dinner, an event that allows “politicians and the press to toast and lightly roast one another,” as my colleague Shawn McCreesh once put it. Some of it was actually pretty funny. A sampling of Pritzker’s comedic attempts, according to remarks as prepared for delivery: On his much-whispered-about weight loss: “If you’re seeing me in person for the very first time, yes, I’m the guy who puts the ‘gov’ in ‘Wegovy,’” the weight-loss drug. On a potential 2028 presidential rival, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California: “I do admire Gavin. Despite all the criticism, he has held firm to his belief that you should always look a little bit wet.” On his own presidential plans: “Right now I’m 100 percent focused on serving the people of Illinois. That’s not just me talking — that’s also a 2006 quote from Barack Obama.” On running into Rahm Emanuel: “When we chatted earlier, Rahm told me” to go jump in a lake (Pritzker actually used a phrase with a favored Emanuel obscenity). “So it’s nice to know I’m back on his good side.” On the shorts-wearing Senator John Fetterman: “Our team does include some younger folks. There’s John Fetterman — the senator for people who loved Joe Manchin but wish he’d show more leg.” On the leader of the Democratic Party: “Obviously, Democrats do have a strong, fearless leader. Fighting for affordable health care. Releasing the Epstein files. And stopping the war in Iran. Her name is … Marjorie Taylor Greene.” Taylor Robinson and Ama Sarpomaa contributed reporting. Read past editions of the newsletter here. If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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