Washington, DC

1. Trump’s words vs. Pentagon’s actions
2. Oil execs at odds with Wright
3. DHS standoff continues
4. Immigration mea culpa
5. Cracking the affordability message

The S&P 500 ▲ 1.5% in a relief rally.

How to read Trump’s military buildup

President Donald Trump said there’s a “very good chance” for a deal in Iran, but the US military is preparing for a much different outcome. The US has deployed thousands of Marines and sailors to the Middle East. While their specific mission isn’t known, their ability to launch quick, small-scale operations is raising the profile of Gulf islands like Kharg that could become central to the war soon, Semafor’s Mohammed Sergie writes. Until recently, the massive US military buildup in the region included two aircraft carriers; one is docking back in Crete for repairs following a fire. Against the backdrop of overt military maneuvering, Trump insisted today that the US and Iran had achieved “major points of agreement” after pulling back on a threat to attack Iranian power plants. Israel was surprised by Trump’s comments about progress in US-Iran talks, Axios’ Barak Ravid reported.

Oil execs, Trump admin diverge on energy market

Oil executives and the Trump administration offered divergent outlooks for the global energy market today. Speaking at CERAWeek, the energy sector’s marquee annual event in Houston, Energy Secretary Chris Wright described the recent price volatility in oil prices as “a short-term disruption,” that would ultimately drive more drilling to come online. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth was more skeptical. The price signal, he said, “could re-stimulate some growth, or not,” and warned that prices are likely to go higher even if the strait reopens soon. TotalEnergies boss Patrick Pouyanné largely echoed that sentiment, warning that a closure lasting more than three or four months would present an enormous risk to the global economy.

Senate Dems want another meeting with Homan

Senate Democrats are asking for another meeting with White House border czar Tom Homan to discuss immigration enforcement negotiations, after the White House declined a request from Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., to meet this morning, according to a person familiar with the matter. Meanwhile, as the Department of Homeland Security shutdown rolls on, Trump is attacking Democrats for balking at the GOP’s voter ID and citizenship bill, which he says must be included in any funding deal that excludes ICE and CBP. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said linking the two is “not realistic” because Democrats don’t support the voting bill. “Hopefully, a meeting gets set soon, once Senate Republicans and the White House get on the same page,” the person familiar with the meeting said. Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., is set to be confirmed as DHS secretary on Monday evening.

— Burgess Everett

Democrat has ‘regret’ for Laken Riley Act vote

Being a politician usually means never saying you’re sorry, but Minnesota Democratic Rep. Angie Craig is treating the Laken Riley Act differently. The Senate candidate penned an op-ed expressing regret for supporting the Trump-backed immigration enforcement bill and told Semafor’s Burgess Everett that voters understand where she’s coming from. “The people of Minnesota are used to me being honest, even when it’s hard,” she said. “I can make the case that the administration isn’t using Laken Riley for any of what they’ve been doing in Minnesota. And at the same time, I can regret voting for any bill that gave Trump and Kristi Noem’s ICE any additional authority.” A spokesperson for Craig’s Senate primary opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, said Craig “voted to empower Trump’s ICE.” But retiring Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., said he was “fine” with his vote for it.

Poll: Caretaking anecdotes resonate with voters

As politicians look for new ways to earn voters’ trust on the economy ahead of the midterms, a new poll found voters are significantly more likely to support candidates who share their personal experiences of struggling to afford care. The survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group on behalf of Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy and shared first with Semafor, found that nearly half of voters trust Democrats more to address the cost of care, while a third trust Republicans — and Democrats who talk about their own challenges gain an 11-point lead over Republicans whose messaging is broader. “There’s so many policies the voters are clamoring for that are going to help them with costs,” pollster Matt Canter said. “Where this issue is unique is all candidates have a personal story … and then they can connect with voters on that.”

— Eleanor Mueller

This April, Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the largest convening of top global CEOs and government officials in the United States — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the full lineup of speakers, including Global Advisory Board members, Fortune 500 CEOs, and top elected officials from the US and across the G20 here.

Shutdown

• President Trump asked ICE agents not to wear masks when in airports. He said he will deploy the National Guard, too, if the TSA needs more help.
• Some TSA workers have applied for food stamps as they prepare to miss a second paycheck.

LaGuardia Accident

• Audio from LaGuardia Airport indicated that a controller was distracted during the time of Sunday night’s collision. — NYT

Business

• Senators introduced a bipartisan bill that would ban sports bets on prediction markets like Kalshi; its path to passage is uncertain. — WSJ

Administration

• A former top SEC enforcement official had clashed with agency leaders over how aggressively to pursue cases that touched the president’s personal circle. — Reuters

Politics

• California primary voters could send two Republican gubernatorial candidates to the general election, according to a recent poll. — LAT
• When voters point to “affordability” as their top issue, pollsters found they’re often talking about health care. — NYT
• Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner abruptly cancelled a campaign event at a New York city gay bar. — The Advocate

Economy

• Diesel has surged past $5 per gallon, a 40% increase in a month that is crushing truckers.
• Investors are now betting against a Fed rate cut this year.

— President Donald Trump on his decision to lift sanctions on Iranian oil.

Laura McGann, editor

With help from Elana Schor, senior Washington editor, and Morgan Chalfant, Washington briefing editor

Graph Massara and Lauren Morganbesser, copy editors

Contact our reporters:

Burgess Everett, Eleanor Mueller, Shelby Talcott, Nicholas Wu, David Weigel