Washington, DC

1. Oil hits $100
2. Trump’s new price pitch
3. Republicans in voting-bill disarray
4. Housing clears Senate
5. Fink’s message for grads
6. Dems want WBD deal details

Diesel ▲ 32%: Trucking is getting more expensive.

Oil prices rise despite potential Jones Act waiver

Crude oil hit $100 a barrel again today, despite confirmation that the White House will consider waiving the Jones Act for 30 days. The 1920 law requires US-flagged and US-built ships to carry cargo between US ports. Temporary Jones Act relief, which President Donald Trump delivered in 2017 and the Biden administration in 2022, could bring down gasoline prices somewhat, particularly in the Northeast. Yet the Strait of Hormuz remains a chokepoint. Energy Secretary Chris Wright disappointed markets when he said that the Navy wouldn’t be ready to escort commercial ships through the strait until at least the end of the month. And Iran’s newly installed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep the strait closed in his first public statement since assuming the role.

Trump: Rising oil prices are good for America

Despite his administration’s efforts to stabilize the oil market, Trump is putting an optimistic spin on rising prices. “The United States is the largest Oil Producer in the World, by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,” the president wrote on Truth Social earlier today. While it’s true that US oil companies will capture some of the windfall from rising crude prices, most Americans will feel the ripple effects through the economy differently. Gas prices are up about 60 cents per gallon nationally. If oil prices continue to rise, inflation could tick up and increase prices on household goods. Trump’s optimistic pitch on oil prices could be a message he regrets as Democrats start splicing midterm ads.

Senate passes bipartisan housing bill

The Senate today passed a bipartisan housing package with overwhelming support, setting up a protracted battle with House Republicans over what Trump should enact. The White House has signaled it supports the bill, which includes the president’s proposed ban on institutional investors in housing. Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said he even “got a visit from some of the folks at the White House … encouraging us to pass it.” But the ban also includes a controversial provision that requires institutional investors to sell any rental properties they build to individuals within seven years, which some industry groups have warned could deplete supply. Trump’s own Treasury Department has privately pushed back on the language. Already-skeptical House Republicans are agitating for House Speaker Mike Johnson to go to conference on the bill so the lower chamber can make its own changes.

— Eleanor Mueller and Burgess Everett

How Trump’s voting push is consuming Republicans

The Republican Party is utterly consumed by Trump’s demand to push a voter ID and citizenship bill past a filibuster, Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports. Trump is heaping pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune, even though GOP senators see no way to get the bill through the chamber. Some Republicans want to hold a vote to kill the filibuster anyway next week, trying to eliminate a barrier Trump has long wanted gone, while Utah Sen. Mike Lee wants to force Democrats to use a talking filibuster. It’s created a lot of disarray and chaos for a party that doesn’t need more as it girds to defend its majorities this fall. Notably, most GOP senators are defending Thune. But that doesn’t guarantee Trump can be satisfied on an issue that he perceives as critical to ensuring Republican victories in the midterms.

CEO predicts bleak job market for new college grads

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink offered the Class of 2026 a dire prediction in an interview with Semafor’s Liz Hoffman: “This May, when our college graduates are graduating, we may see the highest unemployment rate of that group” without an accompanying recession, Fink said at the BlackRock Infrastructure Summit this week. The reason: artificial intelligence. Fink was touting the boon AI could be to skilled labor, particularly in the construction of data centers, when Hoffman asked about the flipside — the looming threat to white-collar jobs. Big Tech and finance have calibrated recently on their rhetoric, sensing the backlash. But if Fink is right, they’ll need more than words to deal with the fallout.

Democrats demand details on Paramount-WBD deal

Democrats are sending a message to the Justice and Treasury departments: We are going to check your work on Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. House Democrats sent a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asking for more information about the federal review of the deal, Semafor’s Max Tani scoops. Democrats wrote they have “substantial concerns” that the deal could constitute a merger that restricts competition, violating antitrust measures. They flagged possible national security considerations, as the deal contains potential foreign financing from China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. With Democrats out of power, they have limited tools beyond letter-writing to oppose the deal, but if they regain power, they could punish companies like Paramount that are seen as friendly to Trump.

This April, David Ko, CEO of Calm, will join global leaders at Semafor World Economy — the premier convening for the world’s top executives — to sit down with Semafor editors for conversations on the forces shaping global markets, emerging technologies, and geopolitics. See the first lineup of speakers here.

Iran

• Iran’s leadership is not at risk of collapse any time soon, according to US intelligence. — Reuters
• While the pace of Iran’s retaliatory attacks is slowing, seven ships have been hit in the waters around Iran since Wednesday.
• More than 630 people have been killed in Lebanon in the past week as the war engulfs the country.

War at Home

• A Washington Post poll of 1,000 Americans found respondents are less opposed to US military action than when strikes first began.
• Americans are starting to feel the effects of the war in their wallet.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom said there is no imminent threat of drone attacks from Iran.

Politics

• Deportation policy is fracturing the MAGA movement. — Politico
• Border czar Tom Homan is working to build ties with DHS pick Markwayne Mullin after a rocky relationship with Kristi Noem. — Politico
• A survey from Upswing found the Michigan Senate race is extremely tight.

Courts

• Capitol Police officers told a judge that a plaque honoring officers who defended the Capitol on January 6, 2021 is being unlawfully hidden from the public. — WaPo
• Immigration detention cases have declined as the Trump administration pulls back on hardline enforcement, according to an analysis of emergency lawsuits filed by ICE detainees. — Politico

National Security

• A suspect is dead after ramming a vehicle into a synagogue outside of Detroit; authorities are still investigating whether it was an act of terrorism.

Correction

• Semafor DC misidentified the International Energy Agency in Wednesday’s PM edition.

— Former Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., urged Democrats to stop talking about Trump on the Fifth Column podcast.