The IEA agrees to release oil reserves, the Pentagon headhunts for bankers, and the UK ejects heredi͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌  ͏‌ 
 
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March 12, 2026
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The World Today

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  1. IEA releasing oil reserves
  2. India faces LNG crisis
  3. An obsolete inflation report
  4. New Iran leader whereabouts
  5. Pentagon hunts for bankers
  6. HALO trade hits China
  7. Porsche under pressure
  8. Chinese cars in Africa
  9. Uzbekistan’s transformation
  10. UK’s noble lords ejected

The life and times of George ‘Geordie’ Sutherland-Leveson-Gower.

1

IEA oil release fails to calm markets

Chart showing OECD oil stockpiles

The International Energy Agency agreed on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels of oil to cushion a supply disruption triggered by the war in Iran. But the move did little to calm energy markets, as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain effectively frozen: Oil prices ticked up Wednesday on worries of a sustained interruption to global flows. US President Donald Trump suggested oil companies could use the strait, but strikes on ships have escalated and the US military declined to escort tankers until the threat of Iranian attacks subsides. Even as Tehran has jeopardized global oil supplies, it has shipped nearly 12 million barrels of its own crude to China since the war began.

2

Energy crisis disrupts South Asia

A man pulls a cart of LNG canisters
Amit Dave/Reuters

The energy crisis sparked by the Iran war is disrupting daily life in South Asia. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused shortages in India of liquefied petroleum gas, used as cooking fuel: Restaurants across the country, which is the world’s second-largest LPG importer, warned they may have to close within days. “It is like a second COVID-19 lockdown for us,” a restaurant chain executive said. In Bangladesh, which imports nearly 95% of its energy needs, fuel prices have risen, leading to rationing, panic buying, and long lines. And food prices are up in Pakistan because of higher transportation costs, putting pressure on families during Ramadan. “The lesson is clear,” an energy analyst said. “Energy security cannot rely solely on imported oil.”

3

US inflation report ‘obsolete’ amid war

Chart showing US monthly annual inflation since April 2025

US inflation steadied in February, new data showed Wednesday, though economists’ attention has swiftly turned to the potential for price hikes stemming from the Middle East conflict. The data suggested limited pass-through from President Donald Trump’s latest across-the-board tariffs, and while in one world he may have breathed a sigh of relief, the war in Iran rendered the new reading “pretty obsolete the moment it arrived,” an economic journalist wrote. Wall Street was also quick to write off the report, with one strategist calling it “ho-hum.” While Trump has shrugged off the economic blowback of the conflict, Americans are already facing the brunt of rising energy costs; gas prices are soaring.

4

Iran’s new supreme leader ‘lightly injured’

Poster showing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Mojtaba Khamenei
Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters

Iranian officials said the new supreme leader was “lightly injured” but safe, after his absence fueled speculation that he was wounded in US and Israeli strikes. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen since he was selected last week to succeed his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. To smooth Mojtaba’s succession, loyalists are trying to “deify” Khamenei, the Financial Times reported, by comparing his killing to that of the seventh-century Imam Hussein, whose martyrdom is a foundation story of Shia Islam; one relative called the former ayatollah “the master of martyrs.” While many Iranians, hoping for reform in the Islamic republic, celebrated Khamenei’s death, the destruction wrought by the ongoing conflict is now kindling a “sense of nationalism,” a Tehran-based sociologist said.

Semafor Exclusive
5

Pentagon headhunts for bankers

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and US President Donald Trump
Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

The Pentagon is building a new team of investment bankers steeped in private equity to invest $200 billion over three years in defense deals, aiming to counter China’s rise, Semafor’s Liz Hoffman scooped. The US Defense Department is going after bankers at firms including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as prime recruiting targets; a headhunter brief pitches a chance to deploy “more capital than most investors deploy in their entire careers.” President Donald Trump has long strived to direct a massive sovereign wealth fund akin to Gulf and Asian countries, using private capital to wield political power. The administration has hundreds of billions of dollars to invest in critical industries, but there’s been a bottleneck in finding deals, Hoffman wrote.

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Compound Interest
Compound Interest promotion poster

Bilt Rewards launched in 2019 with a simple idea. If you can get credit-card rewards for buying a round of drinks, why can't you get them for paying your rent? After a shambolic and short-lived partnership with Wells Fargo, the company is back with bigger ambitions: to be the platform powering 12% of the economy — housing services — plus a big chunk of what people spend on dining, workouts, healthcare, and other local services. On this week’s episode of Compound Interest, co-hosts Liz Hoffman and Rohan Goswami sit down with Bilt CEO Ankur Jain to unpack its Amex-Shopify-Square ambitions — and why every company wants to be a membership club.

6

‘HALO’ trade comes for China

Chart showing Hong Kong stock index performance versus tech-specific index

AI anxiety is slowly creeping into China’s stock market. The country has been more willing to engage with the tech compared to the US and was seen as immune to the Wall Street trend in which investors gravitated toward “HALO” stocks — “heavy assets, low obsolescence” — that have limited AI exposure. But Chinese tech stocks have fallen in recent weeks in part due to caution over the AI boom, Caixin reported. There are other signs China isn’t pursuing an unconditional embrace of AI. After much hype surrounding OpenClaw, an autonomous AI agent, Beijing reportedly moved to curb its use in government agencies and state-run enterprises. China’s top judge also warned against the unchecked use of AI in courtrooms.

For more on Chinese tech, subscribe to Semafor’s new China briefing. →

7

Porsche plots a turnaround

Chart showing Porsche quarterly operating income

Porsche’s new CEO said the German sportscar maker would cut more jobs and focus on profits over sales in an effort to turn the company around. Porsche had a dour 2025, reporting a staggering 93% decline in operating profit. The downturn reflected the challenges facing Europe’s car sector, especially in China. The world’s largest car market “has delivered a lesson in humility” in recent years, a Bloomberg columnist wrote, as Porsche’s sales there gradually declined in the face of cheaper domestic competitors. The Iran conflict presents yet another challenge for Porsche, the company said, because of rising energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and dampened Middle East demand.

8

Chinese cars threaten African brands

Chart showing car units sold in South Africa for December 2025 by automaker

Chinese carmakers have rapidly displaced other Asian and Western brands across much of Africa, though their expansion risks hollowing out the continent’s industry, experts warned. While many Chinese brands only launched sales at the start of the decade, they have grown speedily: Anhui-based Chery is now South Africa’s number two seller just four years after re-entering the market. Competition from Chinese carmakers has put pressure on long-established firms, such as Mercedes-Benz, which is considering sharing its regional manufacturing facilities with Hebei’s Great Wall Motors. However, several manufacturers import their cars directly from China, dragging South Africa’s home-made market share down to a third from 56% just two decades ago, Bloomberg reported.

9

Uzbekistan’s emerging digital ecosystem

Uzbekistan flags
Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters

Uzbekistan’s first tech unicorn reached a $2.3 billion valuation, a sign of the country’s transformation. Since the death of longtime dictator Islam Karimov in 2016, Central Asia’s most populous country has enacted wide-ranging reforms, opening up the economy to outside investment and liberalizing trade. It has seen rapid growth with GDP increasing 7.5% in 2025. Uzum, a fintech company founded in 2022, has become a sort of national digital infrastructure, TechCrunch reported, thanks to the country’s young, educated population, high smartphone adoption rates, and few other online banking services. Overseas investors are betting on further growth: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lists the country among its top five investment destinations.