Watch executives from Deutsche Boerse Group, CME Group, Nasdaq, SGX Group and Kalshi discuss prediction markets, oil and regulation at FIA Boca. "We need very clear rules of the road," says Nasdaq Chair and CEO Adena Friedman, adding, "Markets thrive when we have consistent regulation."

Cboe Global Markets CEO Craig Donohue has said that the company has no interest in entering the sports betting market. Speaking at the FIA Global Cleared Markets conference, Donohue says, "Our focus is on events and prediction contracts," explaining, "We're offering the opportunity for people to trade a very simplified contract that gives them the ability to get a pay off for being mostly right, but not exactly right."

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Cboe Global Markets introduced a new product at FIA's Global Cleared Markets Conference that expands on traditional binary outcome contracts and supports more varied outcomes. Cboe's Meaghan Dugan discusses how the "Yes-No, Plus" contract fits into Cboe's broader strategy to innovate and bridge traditional finance and decentralized finance.

US lawmakers have introduced the Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act, which would explicitly ban trading contracts related to war, assassination and individual deaths. The bill aims to close gaps in the current Commodity Exchange Act, which allows the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to block such contracts only if they are against the public interest. At FIA Boca CFTC chair Michael Selig also said he had directed staff to draft guidance on how event contracts can be listed and traded.

Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins has reaffirmed his commitment to reducing regulatory complexity by working to integrate US rules and enhance coordination between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Atkins announced at the FIA Boca conference that staff have been tasked with drafting a memorandum of understanding to address overlapping examinations and enforcement actions, aiming to eliminate duplicative enforcement and create a level playing field for market participants.

Environmental commodity markets are thriving despite regulatory challenges from the Trump administration, IncubEx CEO Dan Scarbrough says. Scarbrough discusses the company's work on a financially settled California carbon allowance futures contract and the growth of state-based programs.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour discussed the value of prediction market at FIA Boca. A recent paper from the Federal Reserve confirms prediction markets are "the most accurate gauge we have... to what's going to happen with the economy," Mansour said. "Super forecasters on Kalshi seemingly are outperforming Wall Street at predicting all these events, which is amazing," he added.

FIA's Global Cleared Markets Conference this year feels a bit like a TradeFi-crypto "dance party", with both sides on the prowl for new partnerships, says CoinFund President Chris Perkins. He discusses the growing collaboration between traditional finance and cryptocurrency firms, the increasing role of artificial intelligence in optimizing yields and more.

Geopolitical conflicts, the rise of prediction markets and the adoption of tokenization are the main drivers of the global derivatives market this year, with 49% of participants citing geopolitical uncertainty as their top issue, a report from Crisil Coalition Greenwich says. The report notes that 43% of respondents see prediction markets as the main driver, though 83% believe these markets encourage gambling and could harm the reputation of the futures market.

Polymarket is partnering with companies such as Palantir Technologies and TWG AI to enhance monitoring of its sports contracts amid increasing concerns over insider trading, according to sources. Key goals are to identify and report suspicious activity by taking steps such as screening for traders who have been banned from sports contracts, sources said. The initiative reportedly is part of Polymarket's efforts to build a US-regulated trading venue, as its primary platform is offshore, with no US-based participants accepted.

Oil markets experienced one of their most volatile sessions on record as Brent crude surged to $119 a barrel before plunging to $84 within 23 hours amid the Iran conflict. The extreme price swings widened trading spreads, forced some market participants to reduce activity and triggered heavy losses for traders caught on the wrong side of the move.

Trafigura secured a $3 billion credit facility while traders including Vitol and Gunvor seek additional financing as volatility in oil markets raises the risk of large margin calls, sources say. The moves reportedly aim to ensure liquidity if prices spike again amid disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

Major hedge funds, including Citadel, ExodusPoint, and Millennium Management, sustained notable losses in early March 2026 as their multi-manager strategies were hit by sudden market turmoil stemming from the Middle East conflict. Citadel's flagship Wellington fund and ExodusPoint both lost 2% last week, erasing ExodusPoint's year-to-date gains, while Millennium Management dropped 1.2%.

Saudi Aramco warned that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets and the wider economy. The company said shipments from the Gulf are largely blocked, forcing it to rely on inventories and alternative pipelines as regional exports stall.