I take risks.
But the risks I take are conservative risks:
I'll invest in an MVP I believe in, knowing it'll often burn $5K–$10K.
I'll relocate anywhere in the world on a whim, even if it turns out to be utterly unproductive (Amsterdam and Laos, I'm looking at you).
I'll risk doing what I love against society's norms, even when people mock it (“You do what online?” a serious Israeli investor once asked me, dripping with condescension).
These are conservative, recoverable risks.
Recently, though, I found myself in the middle of an involuntary risk. One I hadn't chosen.
I was spending the winter in Dubai with my family when the conflict in the region began escalating. I felt safe – not "safe" in the way Instagram influencers mean it, but "I'm with family" safe. The problem was: they lived there. I was just visiting.
Then one evening, I watched a missile get intercepted above their home.
I asked myself: is this a conservative risk, or an aggressive one?
The signals were mixed. My friends in Dubai were relaxed: "nothing will happen, it's the safest place on earth, take a chill pill."
Meanwhile, my aunt in the US was quoting the US government: URGENT. LEAVE NOW.
For a few days, I stayed put.
Then I ran the numbers differently. I can risk losing $5K on a product. I can risk upsetting someone with my choices. But could I afford to be stranded there for months if things escalated, paying mostly an emotional price?
The inability to focus.
Constantly checking the news.
Low-grade anxiety that never quite lifts.
I labelled it a medium risk, packed my bags, and left for Oman by land, flying out of Muscat the next day.
The moment I crossed the border, war-economy pricing kicked in.
A taxi to the airport: $400 (negotiable down from $600).
Airport hotels: double or triple the usual rate.
Oman Air emergency flights out of the region: $2,400 for economy.
"That's the risk reversal premium," said a lovely South African woman sharing my taxi to Muscat airport, as we tallied it all up.
"Better safe than sorry," I laughed, taking a bite of my turkey and cheese sandwich as we wound through Oman's mountainous desert.
Your risk profile shapes everything in business, by the way.
It determines which products you build, how fast you move, how much you spend testing an idea before you pull the plug.
Mine being 'medium' explains a lot about how I operate – I move, but I don't bet the house.
So – what's your risk profile: low, medium, or high?
I found out mine is medium.
And I'm more than happy with that.