We’re now into Day 3 of the new Middle East conflict, and a few things are becoming clearer.

First off, the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have set off a series of reactions – economic, political and military – that will undoubtedly change the region. In the short term, travel has been disrupted, the price of oil has spiked, and much of the Gulf region has been placed on high alert. The long term is harder to predict: Where does Iran go after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? What are the political risks back home for U.S. President Donald Trump?

In our opening tranche of stories this weekend, The Conversation U.S. focused on answering how we got here and what it all means. The failure of the Iran nuclear talks was, as nuclear proliferation expert Nina Srinivasan Rathbun writes, all too predictable. But, she argues, that did not mean diplomacy wasn’t working: “Under situations of increased military brinkmanship, talks could have helped the U.S. and Iran step back from the edge, build trust and perhaps develop better political relations – even if an actual deal remained out of reach.”

Of course, the stated aims of the U.S. and Israeli governments now go beyond that being discussed by negotiators in the nuclear talks. Rather, they want regime change. Javed Ali, a former senior adviser at the National Security Council, notes that this gives context to Iran’s response. Faced with an existential threat, the regime in Tehran will show none of the restraint it displayed during previous strikes on its assets. “Now the gloves are off, and each side will be trying to land a knockout blow,” Ali concludes.

Also today:

• IDs of trans Kansans revoked with no grace period
• These missing voters add up to an entire state
• Does involuntary treatment work for substance use disorder?

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