Good morning, everyone.

There are few terms used more often when discussing Alberta finances than the “resource rollercoaster.” But until a provincial government figures out how to get Albertans off the ride, the thrill of the climb to the peak will always be followed by the tumble back down the other side.

And if Finance Minister Nate Horner’s projections come true, Alberta’s fiscal position may not see things turn around until at least 2029, when he says the provincial budget could be back in the black.

For a week now, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been foreshadowing tough news ahead. And while much ink has been spilled on the Premier pinning the coming financial woes on unfettered immigration straining the public purse, on Thursday, reality was delivered.

When Horner presented the provincial budget in the legislature, Albertans found themselves staring at a projected deficit approaching $9.4-billion, record spending expected to climb to $83.9-billion and taxpayer-supported debt soaring to $109-billion.

Big numbers.

“When it comes to fiscal management, I think we’re doing a good job and trying to constrain ourselves in the most reasonable way possible, while protecting the services that matter most to Albertans,” Horner told reporters at a press conference Thursday afternoon.

The Finance Minister said while he expects Alberta will see deficits until 2029, he also expects annual spending to keep rising, hitting $88.4-billion in 2028-29, almost $5-billion higher than the coming fiscal year.

In his budget speech, Horner said this year will require “tough choices,” but he pledged to not make substantial program cuts. “Some of them won’t be popular, but all of them will be necessary to face the challenges ahead.”

Horner said he and the Premier have also discussed how the province might increase revenue.

“I think we’ll see if Albertans are more tax-averse or debt-averse in the days and months ahead,” Horner said.

And while Alberta isn’t the only province staring down big deficits – British Columbia last week forecast a record-breaking $13.3-billion shortfall in the coming year – its reliance on resource revenue makes it the jurisdiction most susceptible to the whims of geopolitics, infrastructure shortcomings and countless other variables.

Thursday’s budget estimates that non-renewable resources will bring in $13.2-billion in the 2026-27 fiscal year – roughly 18 per cent of the province’s total revenues. That’s $8.8-billion less than the 2024-25 fiscal year, and $3.1-billion lower than the province had previously forecast.

The government attributes the sharp drop to lower benchmark oil prices, including West Texas Intermediate, and a wider gap between WTI and the Western Canadian Select price Canadian producers receive for their product.

But the province is also painting a rosier picture on prices far beyond the expectations of forecasting agencies, industry and most banks in 2026 and 2027.

The government’s WTI forecast for 2026 is US$60, for example, compared with the private market average of US$58. (At the low end of the scale, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts US$52, while National Bank is predicting US$68.)

In 2027, the margin is even wider. The Alberta government predicts WTI will hit US$66, while private forecasts average US$60.50.

When asked about the forecast, Horner said he has “a lot of trust” in the province’s chief economist, Catherine Rothrock.

“It’s a pretty educated forecast. I’d say she’s got a better track record than industry,” he said.

As always, the data point that hits home when looking at Alberta’s fiscal position is this: According to this year’s budget, for every $1 drop in the price of oil, provincial coffers will take an approximately $680-million hit.

This is the weekly Alberta newsletter written by Alberta Bureau Chief Mark Iype. If you’re reading this on the web, or it was forwarded to you from someone else, you can sign up for it and all Globe newsletters here.