Believe it or not, another U.S. campaign season is upon us. Fresh off Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, voters head to the polls next week in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas for the kickoff of the midterm elections. Will they be happy with the president’s message?

The biggest electoral test of Trump’s turbulent second term as U.S. president starts in five days. 

A trio of primary elections in the South will offer a glimpse into the mind of American voters who will decide by year’s end whether Trump’s Republican Party should remain in power in Congress. 

Trump is workshopping his message for voters and taking it on the road after an uncharacteristically disciplined State of the Union address on Tuesday where he touted his economic and immigration record. 

He has stayed out of the country’s most hotly contested House of Representatives races so far. Of the five domestic political trips scheduled for Trump this year, only his January visit to Iowa was in a district with a primary that could see a Democrat flip a Republican seat.  

The other four, including an expected visit to Texas on Friday, were to congressional districts that aren’t expected to be in play. Vice President JD Vance, meanwhile, is in a competitive district in Wisconsin on Thursday. 

Trump's travel destinations may indicate the White House is more worried about the battle for control of the Senate, which initially appeared to heavily favor his party. He also visited Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia, all states that could have competitive Senate races if Republicans have a particularly rough year. Trump’s lack of an endorsement so far in Texas’ messy Senate primary has helped keep that race wide open and worried some in the party about the prospects of a more difficult general election fight. 

The White House has vowed to dispatch Trump around the country weekly for much of the year to put his agenda on the ballot in races that might otherwise turn on hyperlocal issues. 

Trump remains a powerful draw for Republican voters but his weak approval ratings could make some more vulnerable Republican lawmakers take a pass on appearing alongside him. And the president’s desire to use his speeches to take a victory lap on inflation rather than acknowledge any financial strain may appear out of touch in districts where cost-of-living issues are top of mind for voters. 

Still, even if the president is a divisive presence in some districts, many Republican House candidates will be eager to get his help to correct an early fundraising disadvantage against Democrats. 

As the midterm season begins, where Trump inserts himself — and where he stays away — may be the clearest signal yet of how confident Republicans really are in their standard bearer. 

Follow Reuters/Ipsos polling on the president's approval ratings here.

One of the highest-stakes U.S. political battles may be playing out this week in Geneva, Switzerland, where Iran and the United States are trying to hash out a resolution to their differences on nuclear issues. Trump briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech, saying he would not allow Tehran to obtain a nuclear weapon even though he preferred a diplomatic solution. A lengthy military conflict in the Middle East could frustrate Americans, push gas prices higher and introduce a new issue on which Democrats can target Republican lawmakers in the midterms.