Washington, DC

1. Trump’s new savings plan
2. Dems divided on SOTU
3. Trump tariffs test Congress
4. Ukraine war four-year mark
5. Anthropic vs. the Pentagon
6. Patel escapes fallout
7. Iran strikes eyed
8. Mejía’s deportations call

PDB: Gonzales under fire

Trump delivers State of the Union … Consumer confidence data released … US Customs stops collecting tariffs deemed illegal

Trump weighs new savings plan

The Trump administration is exploring its options to create a retirement savings plan for workers who don’t have an employer-provided one without going through Congress, people familiar with the talks told Semafor. President Donald Trump is considering mentioning the concept in his State of the Union address, the people said; that mention would come as officials center their affordability pitch on the kids’ savings plan known as Trump Accounts. It would also follow an order Trump signed last year on retirement savings plans. One option: resurrecting former President Barack Obama’s MyRA program, which Trump shuttered in 2017, citing high costs. Obama announced that plan, which eventually drew 30,000 participants, during his 2014 State of the Union. Officials could integrate a new iteration with the so-called Saver’s Match, the federal government’s matching contribution to certain retirement savings plans beginning in 2027.

How Democrats are handling SOTU

While some Democrats are skipping tonight’s State of the Union, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly won’t be one of them. “I understand people who don’t want to be there. This guy is violating the constitutional rights of Americans,” Kelly said after the Trump administration tried to indict him. “This guy thought I would be in jail … I feel it’s my obligation to be there.” Indeed, plenty of Democrats see it as their duty to attend, despite their distaste for Trump — from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to lawmakers from purple districts where the president remains relatively popular. Others, like Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., are attending but bringing guests to protest Trump’s policies. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has urged his caucus to either silently protest the speech or to take part in off-site counterprogramming to avoid a repeat of last year’s sign-hoisting brouhaha.

— Burgess Everett and Nicholas Wu

Tariffs fiasco sends Hill scrambling

The tariff landscape is even messier than before on Capitol Hill, after the Supreme Court knocked down Trump’s use of economic emergency powers to enact sweeping levies. Officials in both parties are studying the president’s unprecedented use of Section 122 tariffs and how Congress can respond. After 150 days, lawmakers would have to weigh in on the new 15% levies to keep them intact, but some doubt they will. “It’s unclear at this point, because it’s so fresh and we haven’t taken up the issue,” Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C., told Semafor. “Typically, Congress has handed that off to the president. But it’s certainly within the congressional right to do so.” Democrats are sure Republicans need 60 votes to extend the duties and are vowing to block them. But there’s some uncertainty about the procedure — since it’s never been tested before.

— Burgess Everett

Ukraine marks four years of war

Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fifth year today, a grim milestone that brings with it little hope for peace. US-mediated talks haven’t resolved sticking points over territorial concessions and security guarantees, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Monday that the Russians are “playing with Trump and playing with the entire world.” The White House remains optimistic, though. Trump “has a humanitarian heart and wants this war settled,” a White House official told Semafor, adding that the administration “has made tremendous progress with respect to ending the war.” But most geopolitics experts now believe the war will end in a “frozen conflict.” And Washington lawmakers keep talking about increasing penalties on Russian President Vladimir Putin, but long-rumored sanctions still haven’t materialized. “I think this thing ends when Putin starts to run out of money,” Kelly told reporters.

— Morgan Chalfant and Burgess Everett

Anthropic to meet top Pentagon brass

The future of one of Silicon Valley’s hottest startups will be on the line Tuesday, when its CEO, Dario Amodei, meets with the Pentagon over a disagreement that has spiraled into a major feud over AI policy. The Department of Defense wants permission to use Anthropic’s Claude model for any lawful use, but Anthropic wants to bar the US government from using it for domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons. (Other AI companies, from Google to OpenAI to xAI, have already agreed to the “all lawful uses” requirement.) The dispute became heated when Anthropic learned that the military used its models during the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro. Now, the company fears the Pentagon will push the technology beyond its capabilities, leading to mistakes. The Pentagon has threatened to label Anthropic a supply chain risk, which could cripple its private-sector business.

— Reed Albergotti

Patel gets a pass on Olympic celebrations

FBI Director Kash Patel isn’t finding himself on shaky ground, despite catching criticism for celebrating with the US men’s Olympic hockey team in their locker room in Italy. Patel was back at the bureau on Monday after defending himself from critics who highlighted the domestic emergencies unfolding in the US and raised questions about the reasons behind his taxpayer-funded trip. But Trump is a huge sports fan, and himself phoned in to speak with the hockey team after the win. The FBI said the trip was planned months ago; one Patel ally told Semafor he met with the embassy and “signed some really significant law enforcement” memoranda, while also noting that the FBI helped provide security for the event. “He’s a hockey fan, and it’s a once-in-a-lifetime experience,” the person said. “I give him a pass on this one.”

 — Shelby Talcott

US evacuates Beirut personnel

The US is preparing for the possibility of strikes on Iran, as Trump continues to weigh his options ahead of indirect talks. The State Department on Monday ordered non-emergency personnel to depart the embassy in Lebanon as tensions between Iran and the US keep rising. Inside the White House, officials are weighing all possibilities as the topic dominates discussions. Trump on Monday criticized media reports surrounding what he might do, writing that he is “the one that makes the decision” while refuting reports that Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has warned against striking Iran. “I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

— Shelby Talcott

Progressive star seeks to halt deportations

Analilia Mejía isn’t a member of Congress yet, but Democrats are bracing for her to show up — and to bring friends. Semafor’s David Weigel spoke to the progressive rising star about her plans should she win the April special election for New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s old House seat — including her calls on the campaign trail to “abolish ICE,” among other things. Mejía advocated for a moratorium on the Trump administration’s deportations “because ICE has operated with such impunity.” She added: “They are in violation of constitutional protections and rights. To allow that to proceed without a stop and evaluation is unconscionable.” The longtime activist won this month’s 11-way Democratic primary because she consolidated progressive support, rallying with her old boss, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and driving up turnout. Progressives who lost ground in 2024 hope that strategy can work in more districts.

Blindspot: ‘Angel families’ and Netflix

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: President Trump signed a proclamation honoring “angel families” of victims of crimes allegedly carried out by undocumented migrants.

What the Right isn’t reading: Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos shrugged off Trump’s demand that the company remove former Biden adviser Susan Rice from its board.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “It’s going to be, I think, a challenge to find consensus on any path forward on the tariffs on the legislative side,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said.

Playbook: Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are playing an ever-larger role ahead of the midterms, with candidates posting screenshots of their betting odds alongside more conventional metrics such as polling and fundraising to show how their campaigns are gaining momentum.

WaPo: “Increasingly, members of Congress are using the [State of the Union] as a platform for their own political stances and making themselves the main characters of the night.”

Axios: A new wave of mass deportations is set to begin, as “deportation judges” race through a backlog of 3.6 million cases.