Tariffs compound oil markets anxieties

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Power Up

 

A Reuters Open Interest newsletter

By Ron Bousso, ROI Energy Columnist

 
 

Data refreshes every time you open this email. For more energy news, click here. Please send any feedback to powerup@thomsonreuters.com.

Hello Power Up readers,

I'm back after a short break. A big thanks to Gavin Maguire for handling last Thursday's newsletter.

President Donald Trump is once again keeping investors on the edge of their seats. Oil traders are eagerly waiting for the tiniest development on the U.S.-Iran front, though they, like us, are none the wiser than a week ago. A third round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, but the gulf between the two sides still appears to be wide.

Iran has indicated it is prepared to make concessions on its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions and recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as it seeks to avert a U.S. attack. But the U.S. has repeatedly demanded zero enrichment.

Meanwhile, U.S. military forces continue to amass in the region.

Brent crude prices are trading above $70 a barrel at the moment, close to the highest level since last August, suggesting investors remain edgy over the prospect of conflict in the Middle East.

Compounding the confusion in global energy markets is last week’s news that the U.S. Supreme Court had struck down key parts of President Trump's tariff plans, prompting the president to impose a blanket 15% tariff on U.S. imports. More on this below in an article by Reuters reporters Georgina Mccartney, Arathy Somasekhar and Curtis Williams.

Here are a few more headlines:

  • Spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia have drifted lower despite solid demand in the top-consuming region and record imports by Europe. Throw in rising tensions in the Middle East and the threat to shipments from Qatar, the second-biggest LNG exporter behind the United States, and the unperturbed spot price seems incongruous, writes ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell.
  • Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 per barrel to $60 and $56, respectively, citing lower OECD stocks, even as it continued to assume no Iran-related supply disruption and maintained its projection for a surplus this year.
  • Italian power utility Enel plans to increase capital expenditure over the next three years, shifting its focus to renewables, mainly in Europe and the United States.

As always, don’t hesitate to contact me at ron.bousso@thomsonreuters.com or follow me on LinkedIn with any questions or thoughts.

 
 

Top energy headlines

  • Oil at six-month high with nuclear talks and US tariffs in focus
  • US Supreme Court to hear Exxon bid for compensation from Cuba
  • Saudi Aramco sells first Jafurah condensate cargoes to US firms, India, sources say
  • US to make tariff decision on solar panels from India, Indonesia and Laos
  • US Supreme Court to hear Exxon and Suncor bid to toss Boulder's climate suit
 
 

Peak Trump uncertainty?

The U.S. Supreme Court's Friday tariffs ruling may ease costs for some oil producers and drillers, but experts and analysts believe that broader energy flows would likely remain unchanged for now, Reuters reporters write.

The court's ruling could reduce the cost of building LNG plants and other large-scale energy infrastructure that rely on modules and other parts manufactured in foreign countries hit by tariffs. Venture Global, for example, builds its LNG plants piecemeal in Italy before importing the components into the U.S. for final assembly.

Trump's tariffs raised costs for U.S. crude producers and service companies up the value chain, hitting imported equipment and materials. Many absorbed the additional costs; others tried to pass them on to customers.

"We were forecasting that we would have to pay around $5 to $6 million in tariff taxes in 2026, so that number will come down, hopefully," said Cam Hewell, president and CEO of Premium Oilfield Technologies, which manufactures and sells spare parts and equipment to oilfield companies.

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