Hello Morning Bid readers!
It's been a slightly strange holiday-shortened week for markets - with U.S. and Canadian exchanges shut for President's Day on Monday, and China and South Korea markets closed for most of the week as Lunar New Year festivities got underway.
And yet the newsflow didn't let up much.
Probably the biggest macro move this week was the surge in crude oil prices. Oil had calmed as U.S.-Iran talks and parallel negotiations on the Ukraine war got underway in Geneva on Tuesday. But with no concrete outcome from either and military activity and maneuvering in the Gulf ratcheting up ever since, crude prices have surged back 6% to their highest since August.
As it stands now, energy traders seem wary of a supply disruption in the Gulf - even if prices may not yet fully reflect that outcome - and there's little prospect of sanctioned Russian crude returning to world markets any time soon. While reports suggest that OPEC+ may lean toward an April output increase, it's not just supply-side worries driving prices.
With growing evidence the global economy picked up a gear as it entered 2026, U.S. manufacturing output clocked its biggest monthly gain in 11 months in January. Alongside the punchy employment report for the same month, that industry pickup isn't an isolated data point. Weekly jobless claims fell again too, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve business survey for February was registering activity readings almost twice forecasts and trade data for December showed a sharp surge in U.S. imports.
Some of this points to the hundreds of billions of dollars in AI investment spending being earmarked by Big Tech firms for 2026. And with markets awaiting Nvidia's latest quarterly results next week, there were signs the world's most valuable company was still sealing big deals - this time with one of the so-called hyperscalers, Meta. Meta has already said it plans to almost double its AI capex buildout this year.
And yet nerves abound about circular investments among a concentrated handful of top tech companies, with Nvidia close to a $30 billion investment in one of its largest customers, OpenAI. What's more, investors seem increasingly wary about what they suspect may be AI overspending, and new AI breakthroughs over the past month have been sowing existential worries about companies in several sectors - from software firms to wealth managers.
A widening global political pushback against the negative impact of social media on children also clouds the picture. The S&P 500, 'Magnificent Seven' stock trackers and even Nvidia's shares themselves remain in the red for the year.
Compounding that unease are rumblings from the private credit world that the software sector damage from AI advances may infect some funds. Blue Owl Capital's shares dropped 6% on Thursday after it said was selling $1.4 billion in assets from credit funds so it can return capital to investors and pay down debt, while permanently halting redemptions at one of the funds. Other private credit firms also saw their shares hit.
Back in macro markets, the oil price spike stirred up concerns about economic overheating in the bond market and Treasury yields rebounded higher through the week. Minutes from the January Fed policy meeting showed most policymakers were in no mood to resume easing - and views were split about whether the AI frenzy would test capacity constraints in the economy before any disinflationary productivity boom was delivered.
Inflation concerns may be less of a concern in Europe right now, but the European Central Bank may also be facing a leadership change like the Fed. ECB succession speculation fizzed after the Financial Times reported President Christine Lagarde may step down early this year - well before her term ends in October 2027. The rationale cited in the report was that it would allow French President Emmanuel Macron a say in choosing her successor before he leaves office next May.
There was some initial pushback to the story from the ECB, which said no decision had been made yet, and ECB sources said Lagarde had assured colleagues she wasn't leaving just yet. She then told Friday's Wall Street Journal that her 'baseline' was still to complete her full term.
Still, names of her possible successor circulated once again. Bank for International Settlements boss and former Spanish central bank chief Pablo Hernadez de Cos seems to be a frontrunner, but more hawkish former Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot and even Bundesbank boss Joachim Nagel were mentioned as possible candidates.
Elsewhere, Bank of England easing speculation went up a notch after soft UK headline inflation and private sector wage growth numbers - although sticky core price gains dampened the enthusiasm a little.
Friday sees fourth-quarter U.S. GDP round out this short week, while some are keeping an eye out for a possible Supreme Court ruling on Donald Trump's use of emergency powers for tariffs. Next week will see Trump's State of the Union speech likely dwell on his election-year ‘affordability’ drive, as well as Nvidia's hotly awaited quarterly results on Wednesday.
And, once again, energy markets will keep close tabs on the tensions surrounding Iran this weekend - with Trump warning Tehran it must make a deal in 10 to 15 days over its nuclear program or “really bad things” will happen.
For more commodities and markets news, check out Reuters Open Interest. Learn which sectors could be winners and losers as the U.S. rolls back climate policies, how Big Tech is competing with aluminium smelters for power, and how Asia's crude imports are shifting with geopolitics.
As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.
I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com.
