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| The Daily Pitch |
| PE, VC and M&A |
| Your edge on global private capital markets |
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| Good on paper: The performance of VC funds improved in Q2 and Q3, at least notionally. Much of the gain came from write-ups of unrealized assets, with actual distributions remaining near historic lows. Net asset value increases may reflect genuine optimism among fund managers. But as we saw in 2020 and 2021, high marks are no guarantee of real returns. Download the latest Global Fund Performance Report, which has preliminary Q3 2025 data, to read about returns across asset classes. |
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| Thrive raises $10B as its LPs anticipate mega-IPO windfall |
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By Rosie Bradbury, Senior Venture Capital Reporter
Joshua Kushner's Thrive Capital has closed its 10th flagship fund on over $10 billion, twice its previous fund size and the largest yet for the firm.
Thrive X, which will invest $1 billion in early-stage and $9 billion in late-stage investments, kicks off what's expected to be a banner year for the firm's IPO candidates. |
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SpaceX, which Thrive first invested in at a $38 billion valuation, is widely anticipated to go public at a valuation of over $1 trillion this year. OpenAI, another of Thrive's most prominent bets, is also reportedly planning a 2026 public listing in the back half of the year.
Thrive first invested in the AI giant at a $29 billion valuation in 2023, and then led two of its funding rounds at valuations of $157 billion and $300 billion, respectively. Thrive then bought more OpenAI stock in a secondary deal in October at a $500 billion valuation.
"We do not hedge," Kushner said in a press release announcing the fund on Tuesday. "Our product is partnership—the willingness to commit deeply to a small number of founders, and to stand with them through momentum and adversity."
Kushner's strategy, which is to make relatively few but very large bets, is one that few firms can pull off successfully. This newest fund is a further sign of the growing divide in VC, where blue-chip, marquee funds can continue to collect huge checks from LPs while emerging funds are raising at a slower pace than ever.
Thrive's portfolio had a healthy number of exits in 2025, including Alphabet's acquisition of Wiz and Figma's IPO.
But Thrive's IPO pipeline is potentially even more lucrative, spanning data software company Databricks, fintech giant Stripe, defense tech behemoth Anduril and prominent neobank Monzo. And even if its growth-stage bets stay private, an increasingly sophisticated secondaries market provides ample room for the firm to send some liquidity back to its LP base. |
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| A message from West Monroe |
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| The M&A reset: 5 trends driving deals in 2026 |
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M&A activity is entering a new phase in 2026 as market volatility eases and deal fundamentals reset. Middle-market momentum is returning, AI is accelerating every stage of the deal lifecycle, and acquirers are becoming more selective about where—and how—they deploy capital. At the same time, integration readiness and regulatory complexity are emerging as critical differentiators between value creation and value leakage.
West Monroe’s 2026 M&A Outlook explores five key trends shaping corporate development and dealmaking strategies in the year ahead, with a practical focus on execution, integration, and competitive advantage.
Explore the insights shaping the next deal cycle. |
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• Veritas Capital has raised over $15 billion for deals in the aerospace and defense sector, a rare bright spot in a prolonged downturn for PE fundraising. Read more
• Higher prices, fewer winners: The 2025 Annual US VC Valuations and Returns Report highlights AI's dominion, as median pre-money valuations reached decade highs last year. |
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| The $135B agent effect: Why VCs aren't pulling back from SaaS |
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By Derek Hernandez, Senior Emerging Technology Analyst
SaaS displacement fears crystalized in the market's SaaS-pocalypse this month, but VC investment isn't showing it. Venture bets on the space remain strong as large enterprises get serious about pursuing AI agents.
VC funding for enterprise software surged to about $135 billion in 2025, a 59% leap from last year and within striking distance of the 2021 peak, according to our latest report on the industry.
Rather than signaling a dying category, the data shows an ecosystem that absorbed a painful 2022-'23 correction and reemerged around a fundamentally different value proposition: autonomous digital labor that delivers measurable ROI, replacing the per-seat pricing models that defined the prior era. |
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Zooming out, overall deal value in Q4 2025 normalized around a healthy $25 billion, and quarterly deal counts have stabilized in the mid-800s after peaking near 1,500 deals quarterly in 2021. Importantly, the composition of that activity has shifted.
Enterprises are beginning to seriously invest in and deploy autonomous agents. Human-friendly design for control and oversight has become table stakes, and low-code or no-code agent builders are making development of AI agents possible for employees beyond traditional engineering teams.
Incumbents are accelerating AI integration to defend existing market share, while AI-native challengers are targeting greenfield opportunities with leaner architectures. The result is intensifying competition at every layer of the enterprise stack, from infrastructure to vertical applications.
Looking into 2026, we expect deal throughput in the $25 billion to $30 billion quarterly range and selective but increasingly open exit windows. The SaaS-pocalypse may make for a compelling headline, but the capital flows tell a story of transformation, not decline. |
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Smart reads that caught our eye.
• Looking for overlooked AI plays? Check out these Japanese toilets. UK-based investor Palliser Capital is urging Japan-based toilet maker Toto to capitalize on its advanced ceramics. [Financial Times]
• The blazing return of the fire horse, where everything will be OK. As the world celebrates the Lunar New Year, some millennials think embracing the Chinese zodiac is about to change their lives. [The Independent]
• Massive US spending on AI infrastructure could crush Europe's ambitions for data sovereignty and control over its own digital future. [Euronews] |
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| Since yesterday, the PitchBook Platform added: |
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