Russian crude exports have remained broadly stable in recent years despite sweeping Western sanctions and a sharp reduction in energy purchases by Europe. Moscow successfully redirected most of its seaborne crude to China, India and Turkey, often relying on a "shadow fleet" of ageing, uninsured tankers to circumvent restrictions while offering steep discounts.
That resilience is now under strain. Exports have slowed in recent months after Trump tightened sanctions and imposed tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian oil.
Demand has also been hit by a European Union ban on imports of fuels refined from Russian crude that came into force last month.
Russian seaborne crude exports fell to 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from 3.8 million bpd in December, and are currently tracking around 2.8 million bpd in February, according to analytics firm Kpler.
At the same time, the volume of Russian oil held on ships has climbed to a record high above 150 million barrels in recent months, while many tankers have also slowed their speeds – both signs of weaker buying.
The European Commission's proposal to impose a sweeping prohibition on any business that supports Russia's seaborne crude oil exports – which goes far beyond previous sanctions – would squeeze Moscow yet further.
Pressure on Russian exports is likely to intensify in the coming months as India, the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil last year, prepares to curb purchases as part of a trade deal with the United States. Trump has said New Delhi agreed to halt Russian imports under the deal, though Indian officials have not confirmed that plan.
