Washington, DC

1. New shutdown looms
2. Trump’s troubles
3. Signs of economic optimism
4. DOJ antitrust divide
5. WaPo’s slogan woes
6. US-Iran tensions still high
7. House has say on housing

PDB: Trump’s Ukraine timeline

Lawmakers can view unredacted Epstein files … Ghislaine Maxwell deposed by House Oversight … Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years in prison

Can Congress avoid shutdown No. 3?

Capitol Hill is facing a major time crunch to avoid its third government shutdown of the Congress. There are just four nights to go before a Valentine’s Day funding lapse for the Department of Homeland Security; some senators are scheduled later this week to attend the Munich Security Conference, which starts on Friday. We’re told many members are hoping to fly out on Thursday night on previously scheduled trips. Meanwhile, there are no clear signals from centrist Democrats that they will support a short-term funding extension for the agency to allow nascent — and so far fruitless — negotiations to continue on changes to President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune says the length of a stopgap bill depends on what Democrats agree to. And he hasn’t ruled out keeping the Senate in if Congress fails to fund DHS.

— Burgess Everett

View: Trump is returning to Earth

Trump’s diminished standing points to a familiar cycle, Semafor’s Ben Smith writes. First, the laws of political gravity appear suspended and analysts theorize that we’re in a radically changed world. Then, just as those theories develop — about hyperpartisanship, immunity to scandal or control of the media — gravity returns with a vengeance. Trump appears to be following the path of past American presidents bleeding power after their first year, and reliving a disastrous 2018. He faces mounting domestic challenges, from the Epstein controversy, which Ben likens to “an oil spill, oozing through global politics and discrediting elites and would-be counter-elites alike,” to an immigration showdown with Democrats and a social media post that even fellow Republicans called racist. One retiring House Republican said the post, which depicted the Obamas as apes, validated their choice to leave Capitol Hill, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott, Eleanor Mueller, and Burgess Everett reported.

Americans expect economy to improve

More Americans expect economic growth to rise in the next six months than believe it will fall, a sign of optimism despite persistent concerns about high prices. Forty-nine percent of US adults believe economic growth will rise in the first half of this year, according to Gallup, while a slightly larger share of 50% believe the US stock market will go up during the same period (only 25% predict it will fall). That’s not to say Americans aren’t still worried about their pocketbooks: Sixty-two percent believe inflation will increase, while 50% see unemployment worsening. Economic sentiment will be a key factor in the November midterm elections. The White House is banking that bigger tax refunds this spring will benefit Republicans in the fall, but some strategists and economists project that the political upside will be short-lived, Politico reports.

Live Nation settlement talks divide DOJ

Settlement talks between ticketing giant Live Nation and the Justice Department are deepening fractures inside the Trump administration over antitrust enforcement, Semafor’s Rohan Goswami, Liz Hoffman, and Ben Smith report. Live Nation executives and lobbyists have been negotiating with senior DOJ officials outside the antitrust division to avert a trial over whether the company is operating an illegal monopoly that has driven up concert prices. Some of those talks have sidelined antitrust chief Gail Slater, who inherited the Live Nation case from the Biden administration but has pursued it toward a trial set for March. The Trump administration’s largely business-friendly accommodation has clashed with Slater’s more skeptical approach to corporate mergers. Her authority has been challenged in several high-profile cases, diminishing hopes in both progressive and populist MAGA circles for tough antitrust enforcement.

The Washington Post’s marketing mishap

Late last year, before The Washington Post slashed its staff and ousted its CEO, the paper was looking to juice its brand. So it prepared an ad campaign, with a tagline meant to convey its connection to America: “We the People.” But as the Post was about to debut the campaign, Semafor’s Max Tani writes, the paper ran into a snag. As part of its rebranding as MS NOW, MSNBC announced that it was launching a $20 million branding campaign of its own. The channel’s new tagline? “We the People.” MS NOW’s massive budget forced the Post to stop what would’ve been its second marketing campaign in about a year, after the paper ran ads with the tagline “Switch On.” Neither slogan was meant to replace “Democracy Dies in Darkness,” but the paper found that hadn’t been testing as well.

Talks don’t resolve US-Iran tensions

Tensions between the US and Iran remain high despite what Trump described as “very good talks” last week over a possible nuclear deal. Iran is resisting ending its nuclear program, The Wall Street Journal reported, though Tehran wants to avoid another strike from the US. And Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned over the weekend that the country will “target US bases” if the Trump administration moves forward with a strike, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is heading to Washington a week earlier than planned to discuss Iran. Netanyahu is hoping to convince Trump at a Wednesday meeting that negotiations with Iran must expand beyond talk of nuclear capabilities. His office said that “any negotiations must include limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles and an end to support for the Iranian axis” — topics that the Trump administration wants to address, too.

— Shelby Talcott

House has its say on housing

The House is expected to pass a package of bipartisan housing proposals today with support from more than two-thirds of its members. The legislation will serve as the House’s starting position in negotiations with the Senate after the lower chamber knocked the upper chamber’s housing package out of must-pass defense legislation last year. Though some provisions overlap, many do not — including language in the House package that would roll back regulations on smaller banks, a proposal the Consumer Bankers Association said would “enable increased bank investments across Main Streets nationwide.” Already, lawmakers are apprehensive of the talks ahead: “We have this strongly bipartisan package that came out of the Senate and … I don’t want that to get watered down in the House-Senate negotiations,” Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota, the top Democrat on the Senate’s housing subcommittee, told Semafor.

— Eleanor Mueller

Blindspot: Vought and midterms

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: A Maryland man was charged with attempted murder after showing up at OMB Director Russell Vought’s Virginia home last August.

What the Right isn’t reading: The FBI invited election officials to a meeting on preparations for the midterms that one invitee described to NBC as “unusual and unexpected.” 

China’s ascent is far more than a domestic story — over the past 50 years, it has steadily transformed global markets, technology, and international affairs. In today’s world economy, China is woven into every industry and influences trade and policy decisions across the globe.

To provide clear context on China’s sweeping impact on deals, policies, and the emerging global order, Semafor is launching its flagship China Briefing. Authored by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Andy Browne, Semafor China will deliver original reporting, expert analysis, and sharp insight into how China is reshaping the world around us.

Subscribe for free here.

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed complained during a private call last week that his primary opponent Mallory McMorrow “copies my homework, just poorly.”

Playbook: Energy Secretary Chris Wright expects to see elections in Venezuela take place within two years and said it’s simply a “nice coincidence” for the US that the country’s main product is oil.

Axios: Low mortgage rates are keeping the US housing market on ice, with homeowners staying put for the longest stretch in more than two decades.

WaPo: This year’s Winter Olympics are holding up a mirror to America, from the Vances being booed inside a Milan stadium to US athletes speaking out on immigration enforcement tactics.

White House

• President Trump criticized US Olympic skier Hunter Hess after the athlete said he doesn’t necessarily “represent everything that’s going on in the US” despite wearing the American flag.
• Trump’s allies are offering access to the president to those who donate $1 million or more to Freedom 250, which is fundraising to support events around America’s 250th birthday celebration. — NYT
• The Trump administration will not include Democrats in the National Governors Association’s typically bipartisan annual White House meeting, and specifically disinvited Democratic Govs. Jared Polis and Wes Moore from an NGA dinner. — WaPo
• Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping will visit Washington this year.

Congress