Washington, DC

1. Powell probe falls flat
2. Trump’s housing hurdle
3. Trump targets Iran
4. Dems’ econ messaging
5. SCOTUS hears trans cases
6. Crypto bill questions

PDB: Meta’s new big hire 

Trump speaks at Detroit Economic Club … US publishes inflation data … AFP: Danish, Greenland officials to visit the White House on Wednesday

Powell probe backfires on the Hill

The criminal probe over Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress over the Fed’s renovation overruns is falling flat in Washington, where even Powell’s critics won’t endorse a criminal investigation, Semafor’s Burgess Everett and Eleanor Mueller report. “I don’t like the criminal probe,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., who thinks Powell should step down and has done a poor job as chair. “If we were to do an indictment on everybody that’s elusive in front of Congress, we’d have to build a couple new penitentiaries.” And there’s practical fallout, too: Sen. Thom Tillis’, R-N.C., opposition to the probe means Trump can’t confirm new Fed nominees under current rules. The US attorney for DC, Jeanine Pirro, sought to downplay the probe Monday night, writing on X that “none of this would have happened if they had just responded to our outreach.”

Exec pans Trump’s housing policy

Trump’s latest policy idea for fixing the nation’s homebuilding backlog won’t work, an executive at the nation’s largest owner of single-family rental homes argued Monday. The president is seeking to ban institutional investors from buying up single-family homes, part of a multi-pronged affordability push ahead of the midterms (he’ll need congressional Republicans’ help, too). But blaming housing giants for the high cost of homeownership is an “old view,” Stephen Scherr, president of investment firm Pretium, told Semafor’s Liz Hoffman. Pretium buys mostly straight from developers, which reduces builders’ risk and incentivizes new projects; “rental-home investment funds arguably enable at least as much excess housing to be built as they take off the market,” Liz writes. Still, anything the industry can do to “accelerate people’s path into home ownership, we’re game to play,” Scherr said.

Trump turns up the pressure on Iran

Trump is ramping up the pressure on Iran as the country continues its deadly crackdown on anti-government protests. On Monday, the US president announced immediate 25% tariffs for any country “doing business” with Iran. The move promises to be disruptive: The country’s trading partners include China, the UAE, and India. Trump’s announcement carries echoes of the administration’s economic push against Venezuela; Trump started out by imposing economic sanctions on the country before ultimately striking and capturing Nicolás Maduro. Trump is expected to meet with top advisers today to discuss possible military options against Iran; the president is “leaning toward striking Iran,” but hasn’t finally decided, Axios reported. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters airstrikes are among “many, many options” on the table but added that “diplomacy is always the first option for the president.”

— Shelby Talcott

Dems urged to pivot to economic populism

Four progressive Democratic senators are telling their colleagues to pivot quickly to economic populism, according to details first shared with Semafor. “Billionaires and corporate interests have captured our political system, but our party’s anemic response to the rigging of our democracy and economy in favor of the ultra-wealthy has eroded our credibility with working people,” wrote Democratic Sens. Chris Murphy, Adam Schiff, Elizabeth Warren, and Tina Smith in a letter to their Democratic colleagues. The senators used polling from both Democratic-aligned and GOP-aligned groups to argue that “bland policy proposals” won’t work without calling out “who is getting screwed and who is doing the screwing.” They advocated for messaging that explicitly targets taxing the rich and increasing the minimum wage. Murphy told Semafor that type of populism is good policy, and “also our party’s path to victory in 2026 and beyond.”

— Burgess Everett

SCOTUS weighs bans on trans athletes

The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today on two pivotal cases regarding restrictions on transgender athletes. The cases involve disputes over laws in West Virginia and Idaho that bar transgender students from competing on school sports teams that align with their gender identity. The rulings later this year will have national ramifications, with similar restrictions in place in 25 states, and could reshape how US law defines sex discrimination. Recent decisions suggest the conservative court will rule in the states’ favor (the justices upheld a ban on transgender medical care for minors in Tennessee last year). West Virginia Attorney General John McCuskey told Semafor he’s “confident” in the case, though he acknowledged it’s “a daunting task to try to assume what nine of the smartest lawyers in the world are going to ask you about very far-reaching and important constitutional questions.”

— Morgan Chalfant

Questions remain over crypto bill

There are some 48 hours until the Senate Banking Committee marks up cryptocurrency firms’ most-sought-after legislation — and about as many loose ends. Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said he received bill text Monday afternoon that included an amendment proposing how to tackle stablecoin rewards, which are a holdup for some Republicans. But Rounds said he still needed to “find out what the players think,” while Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., said he “still [has] some concerns.” As for a bipartisan deal on ethics, Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., said Democrats are still “proposing a ban on sponsoring, endorsing or issuing digital assets that applies to all federal employees” — likely a nonstarter for the Trump administration. Still, it’s full steam ahead: “We have just bent over backwards to accommodate the concerns that have been raised,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., said. “So I hope we get a solid bipartisan vote.”

— Eleanor Mueller

Nominees and social posts

Stories that are being largely ignored by either left-leaning or right-leaning outlets, curated with help from our partners at Ground News.

What the Left isn’t reading: Outgoing Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin said Vice President JD Vance would make a “great” Republican nominee for president in 2028.

What the Right isn’t reading: Trump administration agencies’ official X accounts keep posting videos and memes with white nationalist slogans, PBS reports.

On Wednesday, Jan. 21, Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman will join Semafor for The CEO Signal Exchange: Leadership in an Uncertain Decade in Davos. From geopolitical shocks to climate volatility and disruptive technologies, today’s business environment is increasingly resistant to prediction. As public trust frays, CEOs are being pushed to lead with clarity under pressure.

Semafor CEO Editor Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson will sit down with additional global leaders, including GE Vernova CEO Scott Strazik and Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince to examine how executives are resetting priorities, reassessing risk, and redefining resilience.

Jan. 21 | Davos | Request Invitation

Beltway Newsletters

Punchbowl News: “If you want to make interest rates go up instead of going down, I can’t think of a better way than to have the Federal Reserve getting into a p*ssing contest with the executive branch of government,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La.

Playbook: “The American economy was poised for a breakout moment with tax cuts kicking in,” a Trump administration source said. “Rather than headlines about that, they’re talking about the drama surrounding the Fed.”

WaPo: “The Senate’s not going to give Trump a Fed director he can control after he went after Powell,” a person close to the White House said of Fed Chair contender Kevin Hassett’s chances.

Axios: Venture capital investments in climate and clean technology have almost halved since their 2021 high, PitchBook data shows.

White House

• President Trump criticized Attorney General Pam Bondi as “weak and an ineffective enforcer of his agenda” in conversations with aides. — WSJ
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Trump that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell “made a mess” and could spook financial markets. — Axios

Congress

• Sens. Chris Coons, D-Del., Dick Durbin, D-Ill., Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and Thom Tillis, R-N.C., are traveling to Denmark, along with a contingent of House members, as President Trump continues his pursuit of Greenland.
• Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., is suing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth for retaliating over criticism of the Trump administration.
• Rep. Jim Baird, R-Ind., said he and his wife have left the hospital and are recovering after a car accident last week.
• Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott, R-S.C., has been conspicuously silent about the Federal Reserve’s subpoena.

Outside the Beltway

• Former New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ next gig is promoting a New York-themed crypto token.
• California Gov. Gavin Newsom is trying