The Preventive Priorities Survey evaluates thirty ongoing or potentially violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating this year, as well as their potential impact on U.S. interests.
This year, experts deemed five conflict-related scenarios as highly likely to emerge or escalate and to have a high impact on U.S. interests. They are most concerned about conflict-related risks in the Middle East and eastern Europe, including the potential for increased clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank, renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip, and intensified attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war.
Experts further warn of renewed armed conflict between Iran and Israel; a disruptive, artificial intelligence–enabled cyberattack on U.S. infrastructure; a cross-strait crisis between China and Taiwan; and resumption of North Korean nuclear weapons tests.
However, as the survey name indicates, these conflicts can be prevented. At the end of the report, you'll find scenarios in which the United States can best use its influence to mitigate the conflicts.
Explore the full survey results here.
