| After several years defined by chaos and uncertainty, from the pandemic to chip shortages to tariffs, the new-vehicle market might see calmer waters in 2026. In a recent analysis, Edmunds analysts forecast 16.3 million new-vehicle sales in 2025 and 16 million in 2026. “These volumes reflect a market that, despite affordability constraints, policy changes, and economic uncertainty, has found a more natural balance in inventory, pricing, and days to turn,” Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights, wrote. “After several years of volatility, both consumers and automakers appear more comfortable operating in this new normal.” Affordability challenges: Much like other parts of the economy, Edmunds analysts noted the rise of a “K-shaped divide” among new-vehicle buyers in 2025. More affluent shoppers ponied up for “larger, higher-priced vehicles,” while “price-sensitive shoppers have been pushed out of the new-vehicle market entirely” as a result of rising monthly payments. One of the main trends Edmunds analysts expect to see in 2026 is the persistence of high, but stable, prices. Consumers may see some alleviation on monthly payments thanks to lower interest rates—but uncertainty around federal policy and supply chains are potential risks. EV freefall: Edmunds analysts expect EVs’ share of the new-vehicle market to fall to about 6%, down from approximately 7.5% in 2025, in part due to the sunsetting of federal tax credits for EV purchases. Keep reading here.—JG |