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| The Daily Pitch |
| PE, VC and M&A |
| Your edge on global private capital markets |
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| Allocators need to bundle up for 2026 |
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By Nathan Schwartz and Taylor Criswell,
Sr. Quantitative Research Analysts
The weather outside is frightful—for allocators.
The US economy is barreling into 2026 with a widening rift at its core. On one side, AI-driven capital spending is running hot, keeping growth elevated and extending the rally in risk assets.
On the other, persistent inflation alongside cooling consumer demand is creating conditions that often precede downturns. It is clear that inflation isn't normalizing at 2% CPI.
The resulting uncertainty is making private market allocators wonder where they should deploy their next dollar.
Our latest Allocator Solutions report covers what's driving the wider picture, and outlines potential ripple effects across private markets heading into the new year. |
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The report breaks down where allocators may find compelling opportunities and possible pitfalls when investing marginal capital across PE, VC, private credit, real estate and real assets. The opportunity set looks very different across asset classes:
• The deal math for PE buyouts is getting more attractive as leverage becomes more affordable. VC is one of the brighter spots, with early-stage activity accelerating and secondaries emerging as a critical liquidity tool.
• Private credit is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Deal flow is improving, but credit spreads remain tight.
• Real estate looks to be in the early stages of a rebound, with data center demand and select subsectors leading the way.
• Real assets have been resilient, but face questions around geopolitical risk and whether the AI infrastructure boom can translate into durable project returns. |
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• VC funding for Europe's female founders is recovering, with overall deal value exceeding last year's total. But the share of total European investment claimed by women-led startups has decreased for the second consecutive year. Read more
• Top VC firms flooded into the defense and industrial tech sectors in Q3, as defense budgets expand and the US renews its focus on domestic manufacturing, according to our Emerging Tech Indicator. Read the report
• The pharma biotools industry is on pace for an annual dealmaking record as VCs flock to emerging technologies for drug discovery, clinical development and more. Read the analysis |
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| Leveraged loan dividend payouts hit post-global financial crisis high |
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By Marina Lukatsky, Head of Research, Credit and US Private Equity
A stubbornly difficult exit environment for PE sponsors and favorable credit conditions are driving the market for dividend recapitalization loans to new highs.
As of Dec. 8, PE sponsors tapped the US broadly syndicated loan market to pay themselves $43.6 billion in dividends, already the highest annual total since the global financial crisis. The 2025 tally is 24% above the recent high-water mark of $35.1 billion in 2021, when the cost of debt was at historic lows. |
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The stock of PE-backed companies continues to expand, and age. According to PitchBook data, US PE inventory has grown to nearly 12,900 companies as of Q3, with 30% of current PE-backed assets now held for seven years or more, and another 37% in the early stages of maturity, at four to six years.
In response, sponsors are increasingly turning to dividend recapitalizations to return capital to LPs, supported by a lending environment that remains receptive to such transactions.
Dividend payouts are also growing. The average dividend size of recapitalizations financed in the broadly syndicated market this year is $449 million, the highest level in at least seven years, up from $433 million in 2024 and $386 million in 2021. |
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Smart reads that caught our eye.
• Is AI the second coming of the dot-com bubble? Despite denials that the current AI climate is not a bubble, some similarities between now and the year 2000 are too clear to ignore. [The Wall Street Journal]
• Your plastic Christmas tree is 10% to 15% more expensive this year. Tariffs made fake trees manufactured in Asia, which are extremely popular in the US, cost even more. [Fortune]
• Online prediction markets are exploding. Bets placed on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi grew to $13 billion in November on the backs of elections, sports games and pop culture moments. [Financial Times] |
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| Since yesterday, the PitchBook Platform added: |
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706
Deals
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2377
People
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949
Companies
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29
Funds
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