As 2025 draws to a close, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is riding high. Indeed, the Brazilian president is probably looking ahead to next year – an election year – with relish. In 2024, after months of political dysfunction and growing isolation on the international stage under Lula’s predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil began to show some of its old self-confidence. This was all the more striking given how many other nations wilted in the face of the destabilisation directed by Donald Trump’s second administration. 

Brazil made its mark in three ways. First, when Donald Trump imposed swingeing tariffs on the country for nakedly political purposes, Brasília refused to be bullied. The US president eventually dropped most of the levies on the South American country’s agricultural sector, recognising that they were only hurting US consumers. Second, Brazil successfully prosecuted and incarcerated Jair Bolsonaro, its former president, for plotting a coup to stay in power. This sent a powerful signal to the world that the nation would not entertain autocratic populists or anyone who undermines its democratic institutions. And third, the country took centre stage by hosting a series of global events, including the Brics summit and Cop30. These grand multilaterals afforded Lula the chance to play global statesman – and he did not waste the opportunity.

So, Brazil appears to be rekindling its mojo. But what does that mean for the year to come? Latin America’s most populous nation enters 2026 with substantial geopolitical leverage. Most obvious is the country’s vast, largely untapped supply of strategic minerals, namely lithium, copper and rare earth minerals. As the global order fragments, companies and governments are desperately working to diversify their supplies of these minerals, which are crucial for next-generation technologies and weaponry. Brazil, with its robust institutions and well-exercised democratic government, is an obvious partner of choice. 

American, European and Middle Eastern diplomats are already hurriedly attempting to woo Brazilian mining companies and officials into deals. Brasília must take advantage of this moment to structure investments and reforms that will translate into long-term growth. The same logic applies to the nation’s oil and gas as well as agribusiness sectors, both of which are poised for strong growth. Spurred by increasing global uncertainty, nations are seeking to lock in future supplies. Brazil must seize this opportunity in the coming months and years.

Investment in Brazil has long been influenced by election results and stakeholders will be closely watching the presidential, gubernatorial and legislative polls slated for October. Lula, an 80-year-old former trade unionist now in his third non-consecutive term, is widely expected to run for a fourth. The wind is currently in his sails; his approval ratings have been buoyed by a statement 2025. But Lula is also benefiting from an opposition in disarray. Bolsonaro, now sentenced to 27 years in prison for a coup plot, remains the leader of the Brazilian right wing. He has baulked at nominating a clear successor, fearing that such a move would consign him to history. But now his son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, has announced a presidential run. Time will tell whether Bolsonaro the younger can mount a credible campaign.

What Brazil needs in 2026 is the same thing that it has always needed: reforms to the lavish perks and benefits given out to public officials, notably those in congress. Of particular urgency are amendments to a parliamentary budget scheme that hands out billions of dollars to members of parliament to spend in their home constituencies with little to no oversight. Unfortunately, those who can change the system are the ones who benefit from it. The only feasible option for real change is for these parliamentarians to be voted out – something for citizens to think about as they head to the polls in October.

Bryan Harris is a journalist based in São Paulo. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today. You can read more of his pieces here.

The holiday season gets merrier in the True North with today’s return of Canada’s signature domestic tourism initiative, the Canada Strong Pass (writes Gregory Scruggs). Originally launched this summer and running until 15 January, the programme is available to both domestic and international visitors, offering free or discounted admission fees at national parks, museums and galleries as well as bookings on the national rail carrier, CN Rail.

The government scheme rode a wave of surging nationalism and an informal travel boycott of the US amid a bruising trade war – and Canadians responded. Via Rail reported a 6.5 per cent increase in bookings, attributing some 50,000 train journeys to the pass. The Canadian Museum of Human Rights in Winnipeg, meanwhile, saw a 20 per cent increase in visitation from those under 17, who were granted free admission. 

While Paris’s Louvre is raising entry prices for non-Europeans and the US National Park Service is imposing surcharges on foreign tourists at its most popular sites, Canada is showing the world how to invite, rather than fleece, visitors – as long as they can handle the cold.

Monocle’s design editor, Nic Monisse, takes us through his three favourite stories of 2025.

1. 
Inside Bofill Taller’s adaptable architectural practice. A story about the transformation of an old cement factory on the outskirts of Barcelona into a creative hub. It is an inspiring case study of how structures continue to evolve past their original intention. 

2. 
An architects’ retreat where mid-century cottages stand amid unspoiled Finnish woodland. Our visit to Vähä-Kiljava’s mökkis offered a simple lesson in building well: thoughtful design and shared effort help cultivate a sense of community – and, with it, a better quality of life. 

3. 
Green rooms: Isabel Duprat’s flora-first garden designs. Brazilian landscape architect Isabel Duprat taught us about the importance of context in architecture and how the nature that surrounds us shapes our built environments.

Nomad founder Nicolas Bellavance-Lecompte tells us why he brou