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| The Daily Pitch |
| PE, VC and M&A |
| Your edge on global private capital markets |
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| VC set for cautious rebound in 2026, driven by AI, early-stage deals |
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By Emily Zheng, Sr. Venture Capital Analyst
After years of limited liquidity and slow fundraising, a measured but tangible recovery is expected, according to our 2026 US Venture Capital Outlook. Overall, the report signals a cautiously optimistic reset for VC. Among the takeaways:
Early-stage dealmaking could continue to surge. First-financing activity this year has nearly matched record highs, signaling investor FOMO is causing a rush to grab stakes in companies as early as possible. AI startups are typically progressing through rounds faster than their peers, capturing 65% of new funding. |
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Later-stage deal activity is expected to remain strong, supported by investor appetite for established companies and mature AI-driven startups. Total deal value in 2025 is on pace to be one of the highest tallies in the last decade, with venture growth rounds reaching record levels.
As public markets reward efficiency and scale, leading private companies are expected to raise substantial follow-on rounds to fund expansion and prepare for eventual exits.
Liquidity is predicted to improve modestly but steadily. IPOs are expected to rebound gradually, with as many as 68 listings potentially taking place in 2026, which would be about 45% more than this year.
But our analysts expect most IPOs will remain concentrated in sectors such as AI, fintech and defense, which have garnered significant public market interest. Meanwhile, secondaries have become a vital liquidity outlet, bolstered by rising institutional participation and broader retail access.
VC fundraising appears to have bottomed out, with capital commitments projected to recover to between $100 billion and $130 billion next year. The slow return of capital to LPs is beginning to reactivate the market flywheel.
But the rebound will likely remain concentrated among larger, established firms, leaving smaller and emerging managers facing persistent fundraising headwinds. |
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| A message from Apogem Capital, a New York Life Investments company |
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| Time-Tested Private Credit: Lessons from 25 Years of Direct Lending |
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Apogem Capital is among the longest-tenured direct lenders in the United States, with experience spanning the early 2000s, the global financial crisis, and today’s evolving private credit landscape. Across 4,000 transactions and 25 years of investing, Apogem has developed a disciplined approach rooted in rigorous underwriting, deep sector specialization, and proactive risk management.
In this installment of Apogem’s Private Markets Insights series, investment leaders share practical lessons for institutional investors navigating today’s market conditions, from maintaining portfolio resilience through changing cycles to how sector-focused expertise helps identify opportunities and mitigate risks in the middle and lower middle market.
Explore the full insights.
For institutional use only. Not intended for the public. |
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• PineBridge's PE team has relaunched as Heron View Capital, following its split from the $215 billion investment firm, which has agreed to be acquired by MetLife Investment Management. Find out more
• Top VC firms flooded into the defense and industrial tech sectors in Q3, as defense budgets expand and the US renews its focus on domestic manufacturing, according to our latest Emerging Tech Indicator. Read the report
• VC investment in European cybersecurity has rebounded, for the first time in three years. AI and defense have spurred dealmaking, which has already exceeded 2024's levels. Read more
• Our latest Global Markets Snapshot breaks down a month of trends in the equity, debt and commodities markets, and also features private market activity. Read it now |
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| Q&A: DigitalBridge on the fundraising battle for digital infrastructure |
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| Golden |
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By Madeline Shi, Sr. Private Equity Reporter
Investment into digital infrastructure has boomed this year, alongside the continuing growth of AI.
Leslie Golden, the global head of capital formation and investor relations at DigitalBridge, which recently wrapped up an $11.7 billion fund, sat down with PitchBook to discuss how the firm is positioning itself in the face of increased competition and navigating AI hype.
PitchBook: What was the fundraising market like while you raised DigitalBridge Partners III, which launched in 2023?
Golden: This was a record capital formation event for DigitalBridge across fund and co-investment commitments.
That said, it has not been an easy two years of fundraising generally. Many LPs have been overallocated to private markets—in particular, infrastructure.
About a year ago, we also saw more entrants into the market. So, while we had a strong re-up rate, many of those allocations were a bit smaller than in prior vintages—a fundraising trend we are seeing across the industry. Fortunately, investor interest in our strategies has remained high. More than 65% of commitments came from existing investors.
Who are the newcomers entering this market, and how does DigitalBridge set itself apart?
Newcomers to the digital infrastructure sector are primarily existing infrastructure GPs that had been generalists but are now making larger allocations to digital infrastructure—in particular, data centers.
DigitalBridge has always focused entirely on digital infrastructure.
We offer a robust co-invest program and bring co-investors in at the very start of an investment. Many large funds limit LP access to direct co-invest. That's why our fund is sized the way it is—we're typically able to offer at least a one-to-one ratio of fund to co-investment.
What are the major challenges currently facing the data center market?
The biggest challenges are access to capital and access to power. For the industry, if we continue at the same pace of demand growth, power will become—and already has become—a gating item. We'll need to continue to be very resourceful in terms of securing power. |
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Smart reads that caught our eye.
• DoorDash's meticulous approach puts it heads above other food delivery businesses. Despite the company's rise, its CEO still wants to "master the last 100 feet." [Fortune]
• What went wrong in Europe's quest to develop a single market? Dreams of eliminating barriers and uniting Europe's economy are long gone. [ | | | | | | | |
